How DIPS Can Predict A Team’s Turnaround

Prior to last season, I predicted good things for the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, and the reason for these predictions was simple – improved defense. The Brewers and Rays both had excellent pitchers being undermined by their defenses in 2007, and had both made moves to drastically improve their defenses in 2008.

How do we measure the degree to which a defense is undermining its pitching staff? In part, by looking at hits derived statistics: hits per game and BABIP for example – hits are almost completely (hmm, too strong a phrase; how about “mostly”) dependent upon the defense behind the pitching (except of course for homeruns), so when you see a team giving up lots of hits per game, chances are it has more to do with the defense than with the pitching.

A more telling stat, however, is a stat that several outlets, including ESPN.com, keep track of, and which I have been following for three years, called “DIP%”. In brief, it is the ratio of a team’s defense independent ERA (or FIP in some parlance) and a team’s defense dependent ERA (or “ERA” to all you fans out there). This statistic was the inspiration behind my prediction that Tampa and Milwaukee would surprise people in 2008. In 2007, those two teams ranked among the worst teams in baseball in DIP% according to ESPN.com. In the off-season, however, each team made important improvements to its defense – Tampa jettisoned several players and brought in James Bartlett and Evan Longoria to patrol the infield, while Milwaukee moved Ryan Braun to leftfield, took Bill Hall out of the outfield, and brought in Mike Cameron to patrol centerifled. In 2008 those teams finished first and second in baseball in DIPS% and enjoyed major turnarounds.

The trend has continued into 2009 as well. In 2008, the worst team in all of baseball in DIP% was the Texas Rangers. This off-season, the Rangers moved Michael Young, one of the worst gold glove shortstops ever, to third and replaced him with Elvis Andrus. The Rangers also rid themselves of Milton Bradley (intellectual honesty moment – he was mainly a DH, so that doesn’t affect things) and missed Josh Hamilton’s overrated defense for most of this season, and voila – the Rangers are fourth in all of baseball in DIP% and have already topped last season’s wins total with 20 games to go.

While we have a moment, when are Gold Glove voters going to stop voting for Gold Gloves based on the errors statistic. At some point a connection is going to have to be made between the SABRmetric community, which recognized several years ago that a low errors total generally means a player is getting to fewer batted balls than other players at his position, and the Gold Glove voting community, which generally writes in the name of the player at the top of the Errors Committed column on their stat sheets. This explains the Gold Glove Award going to two very limited fielders in 2008 – Michael Young and Nate McLouth – probably explains how Derek Jeter has won multiple Gold Gloves, and probably also explains why Rafael Palmeiro won the Award in 1999 despite playing most of the season at DH where he likely committed very few errors.

But I digress.

Anyway, there are other teams for whom DIPS% tells a story. Surprised by San Francisco’s success in 2009? Don’t be – in 2008, the Giants finished 25th in the majors in DIPS%, but in 2009 the team’s much improved defense has them at third place overall. Detroit’s turnaround, too, has been fueled by improved defense – Brandon Inge is playing full time at third base, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, and Edgar Renteria are out of the lineup, and Miguel Cabrera is now at first base, and the Tigers have moved from 22nd to 8th in DIPS%. The Tigers pitchers are also reaping the benefits individually – Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello are both arguably overachieving while Justin Verlander is a great pitcher again. Other teams riding defensive turnarounds as they improve upon last season include the Yankees (28th in 2008, 13th in 2009), Colorado (from 29th to 22nd), Seattle (from 20th to 1st), and Atlanta (from 24th to 14th).

Every season has one or two curiosities on its DIPS% leaderboard, and 2009 is no exception. Nine of the top ten teams in DIP% in 2009 have winnings records and made at least a nominal run at the playoffs – those nine teams are Seattle, the Dodgers, San Fran, Texas, the Cubs, St. Louis, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. The exception? The Cincinnati Reds, who are currently in fifth place in the majors in DIPS% but currently stand 64-79 and in fifth place in the NL Central.

How do we explain the anamoly? The probable explanation for the Reds’ season is this: defense can take you pretty far, and it is essential to winning games, but you also have to be able to hit the ball, and when having an excellent defense means putting Willy Taveras (45 OPS+), Adam Rosales (58 OPS+) and Alex Gonzalez (44 OPS+) in the lineup everyday, you’re not going to win many games regardless of your defense. Add to that the fact that Cincinnati’s pitchers are largely a mediocre group undermined by a hitter’s ballpark, and defense becomes the only thing the Reds really have going for them.

It is also surprising to see the Boston Red Sox coming in at 28th on this year’s DIPS% board after finishing 10th in the majors last season. The Red Sox give up the third fewest runs per game in the AL, behind only the Mariners and the Rangers. Humorously, though, the Red Sox have an almost unique combination of great pitching and poor hitting. The Red Sox rank second in the AL in strikeouts, have allowed the fourth fewest walks, and somehow have managed to give up the fewest homeruns in the league (sixth fewest in the majors) despite pitching at Fenway Park.

Nevertheless, the Red Sox chief defense-dependent statistics look pedestrian – the Red Sox rank eighth in the AL in hits allowed, which despite their great walk rate makes them seventh in WHIP, and, from Fangraphs, the Red Sox currently rank dead last in major league baseball in BABIP, or batting average on balls put in play.

Shocking.

So what the Red Sox DIPS% represents is quite the opposite of what the Reds DIPS% represents – a team with great hitting and great pitching can overcome its defensive inadequacies.

These two exceptions aside, the overall lesson here is that team defense can be an incredibly predictive tool, and it can also explain sometimes seemingly unexplainable things. DIPS can make teams with strong offenses and seemingly talented pitching staffs quite bad, as in the case of the 2008 Detroit Tigers and 2007 Milwaukee Brewers. DIPS can also make teams with very good pitching staffs and seemingly weak offenses quite good, as in the case of the 2009 San Francisco Giants. Perhaps the most important thing here is that DIPS can tell you if changes on defense will turn an underachieving team into a winning one.

Looking ahead to next season, DIPS% puts several teams on our radar in terms of predicting improvement or disappointment. For example, the Washington Nationals are currently sixth in the National League in runs scored per game, but dead last by a great distance in runs allowed per game. Not surprisingly, the Nationals are 24th in the majors in DIPS%. If the Nationals can shore up their defense – something they are already on track to do with Adam Dunn moving out of the outfield, Nyjer Morgan taking over centerfield full time next year – and add a quality pitcher or two to the rotation, they could be poised for a major jump in the win-loss department.

The Minnesota Twins are currently sporting two of the elite players in baseball in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and have several solid young pitchers in their rotation. However, Carlos Gomez still hasn’t emerged as a regular position player despite his elite defense, and the middle infield is in disarray. The result – the Twins are a talented team ranked 25th in DIPS% and floating around the .500 mark. Can they solidify their up-the-middle defense in 2010? If so, we should see a playoff contender in Minnesota.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a team loaded with young offensive talent and great pitching, but suffering through their second straight disappointing season, partly induced by injury to Brandon Webb but also brought about by their 22nd overall ranking in DIPS%. In 2010, when Webb makes his return and re-joins rotation-mate Dan Haren, if the D’Backs can somehow improve their defensive weaknesses the Diamondbacks could surprise some people.

Perhaps the team with the greatest potential for a turnaround in 2010 is the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have the worst DIPS% in major league baseball in 2009, and it is not hard to see why – the team is littered with injuries, guys not playing their natural positions, and bad defenders. Having already proven to have an elite starter in Zack Greinke and an elite closer in Joakim Soria, the Royals also have several potentially adequate starters in Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Luke Hochevar. It’s not like these guys are nobodies – Meche and Bannister both have demonstrated that they can be solid major league pitchers with upside in recent years, and Hochevar was the number one overall pick in the 2006 draft.

The Royals have their bright spots looking forward – the return of Alex Gordon likely means that Mark Teahan gets to play first base and Billy Butler gets to go the outfield while Mike Jacobs stays at DH. The Royals will also have a very good defensive centerfielder in Mitch Maier playing everyday in 2010, which can only help. Unfortunately, the Royals also have on of the worst defensive players in baseball in Yuniskey Betancourt, and an underachiever at second base in Alberto Callaspo; until that situation is resolved, the Royals potential for improvement will remain just that.

September 15, 2009 – Asher B. Chancey Prior to last season, I predicted good things for the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays, and the reason for these predictions was simple – improved defense. The Brewers and Rays both had excellent pitchers being undermined by their defenses in 2007, and had both made moves to [...]