AL West Preview

How will the West be won?

Jeopardy would be smart to include the AL West as one of its categories. I’ll take AL West for .500!\

Texas, Los Angeles, and Seattle all have the ability to win, yet all have major questions to answer first, and Oakland is young but will be competitive.

The AL West isn’t going to be the best league in baseball, but it could easily be the most exciting coming down the stretch and it will be your typical Wild West showdown between three teams all season long.

The Doctors are here to show you how the West will be won.

1. Texas Rangers
Arlington is already buzzing with excitement, as team President Nolan Ryan will have free reign to make the moves needed to bring a winner to Arlington and owner Tom Hicks will not be able to sabotage this team.

Offense has never been the Rangers problem, and it won’t be this year, as a healthy Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will lead a powerful attack that got even more powerful with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero.

As usual, there are a few question marks in the Texas pitching staff.
Rich Harden knows the AL West, and the Rangers are hoping he regains his Oakland success. Harden has the abilities to put up solid numbers, but it is highly unlikely he will stay healthy (Harden has never pitched over 200 innings).

The Rangers decided not to take a gamble on Texas native Ben Sheets, who made it clear he wanted to play in Arlington, and it could prove costly. Look for Texas to be in the market for Sheets at the trade deadline if he proves reliable for Oakland.

If the Rangers’ starters can keep the lead in the late innings, they can turn it over to a solid bullpen. Frank Francisco (25 saves) has great stuff and everything is in place for him to become a premier closer.

Youngster Neftali Feliz will be the wild card on the Texas staff. Regarded as a starter, Feliz may end up in bullpen as that bridge to the ninth for Francisco. Spring Training will provide some insight as to what the Rangers are leaning towards but look for Feliz to start off in the bullpen.

The Rangers youth will no longer be an excuse and the fans are demanding results. Players like SS Elvis Andrus, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Davis will be expected to produce this year and others like C Taylor Teagarden, another highly rated prospect, is waiting in the wings in case Saltalmacchia is unable to produce consistently.

2010 Projected Lineup:
CF – Julio Borbon (.312, 19 SB, 20 RBI)
3B – Michael Young (.322, 22 HR, 68 RBI)
2B – Ian Kinsler (.253, 31 SB, 86 RBI)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (.295, 15 HR, 50 RBI)
LF – Josh Hamilton (.268, 10 HR, 54 RBI)
RF – Nelson R. Cruz (.260, 33 HR, 76 RBI)
1B – Chris Davis (.238, 21 HR, 59 RBI)
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.233, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
SS – Elvis Andrus (.267, 33 SB, 40 RBI)

2010 Projected Pitching Staff:
Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09)
Scott Feldman (17-8 4.08)
Tommy Hunter (9-6, 4.10)
Brandon McCarthy (7-4, 4.62)
Neftali Perez * (1-0, 1.74)
*Also competing for the 5th spot – Colby Lewis (0-2, 6.45 ’07) – Matt Harrison (4-5, 6.11) – Derek Holland (8-13, 6.12)

Closer – Frank Francisco (2-3, 2.83, 25 SV)

Prospect’s worth noting:
1. Neftali Perez -  21 years-old – Flame thrower who is expected to start in the ML rotation in the beginning of the season, yet some are reporting he will be in the bullpen
2. Justin Smoak – 23 years-old – Apparently he is hot on Chris Davis’ trails. While Davis did enjoy a strong second half to last season, expect Smoak to get an opportunity if Davis’ struggles during any stretch during the season.

2. Seattle Mariners

The last time the Mariners made the playoffs was 2001 but in 2010 they have one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee have the baseball world buzzing but there still remain questions about their playoff hopes.

Both Hernandez and Lee at the top of a rotation is any baseball fans dream for their team. Lee, a free agent at season’s end, shined in the playoff last year going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies and won the 2008 AL Cy Young. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in MLB and won 19 games last season. Look for him to be near the top of the 2010 AL Cy Young voting.

Erik Bedard is coming off surgery last August to repair torn labrum (gulp), as well as an inflamed bursa, as well as a bruised ego. It looks as if May is a reasonable time table for Bedard’s possible return but he is coming off a horrible 2009 season where he only started 15 games and pitched 83 innings.

David Aardsma had a breakout 2009 season as the Mariners closer posting a 2.52 ERA with 80 strikeouts over 71.1 innings, racking up 38 saves. Yet Aardsma is not a guy you want on the mound in the 9th inning of a close game if you’re at risk of a heart attack because out of 145 qualified relievers, Aardsma had the 39th highest BB/9 ratio.

Mark Lowe, (2-7, 3.26 ERA, in 75 games), Brandon League (3-6, 4.58 ERA, in 67 games), and Shawn Kelley (5-4, 4.50 ERA, in 41 games) were solid in 2009, but there is no guarantee this reliability stays.

New addition Chone Figgins (.298 BA, 42 SB, 114 R, 54 RBI in 2009) will get on base and score runs, something that has been lacking in Seattle and Ichiro can be described simply as a hitting machine. Ken Griffey, Jr. will battle time as he tries to stay healthy.

Three players that Mariners fans will be watching are Jose Lopez batted .272, was second on the team with 25 homers, and a team high 96 RBIs in 2009, yet was the subject of trade rumors all off-season.
Centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, entering only his third full major-league season, expects bigger things in 2010, especially now that sore knees that plagued him throughout last season appear to have healed.

Projected 2010 Lineup:
Ichiro – RF (.352, 26 SB, 46 RBI)
Chone Figgins – 3B (.298, 42 SB, 54 RBI)
Milton Bradley – LF (.257, 12 HR, 40 RBI)
Jose Lopez – 2B (.272, 25 HR, 96 RBI)
Franklin Gutierrez – CF (.283, 18 HR, 70 RBI)
Ken Griffey Jr. – DH (.214, 19 HR, 57 RBI)
Casey Kotchman – 1B (.268, 7 HR, 48 RBI)
Jack Wilson – SS (.255, 5 HR, 39 RBI)
Rob Johnson – C (.213, 2 HR, 27 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Felix Hernandez (19-5, 2.49)
Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (5-4, 3.74)
Ian Snell (7-10, 4.84)
Doug Fister (3-4, 4.13)
Closer – David Aardsma (3-6, 2.52, 38 SV)

Prospects worth noting:
Dustin Ackley – 22 years old – OF with a potential move to 2B? – You might remember Ackley as the kid from North Carolina who was drafted 2nd overall to Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 MLB Draft. He still has not signed, however, so the Mariners priorities have to lie with getting that done soon.
Michael Saunders – 23 years old – OF – a power hitter who could see time in the bigs this season if Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes or Ryan Garko fail in some way.

3. Los Angeles Angels

This won’t be the same Angels team baseball fans have become accustomed to – John Lackey (eight seasons), Vladimir Guerrero (six seasons), and Chone Figgins (eight seasons) are all gone, and Guerrero (Texas) and Figgins (Seattle) both stayed in the division. They will certainly be looking to prove something every time they face their old teams.

Despite the loss of Lackey, the Angels, rotation looks solid. Jered Weaver is the most likely replacement to take over Lackey’s spot as the Angel’s ace. Weaver has tremendous stuff, but can he handle being the ace? Weaver must prove last year wasn’t a fluke when he went 16-8 and also had four complete games and two shutouts.

Weaver will be followed in the rotation by Ervin Santana (8-8 5.03), Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60), Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89), Joel Piniero (15-12, 3.49), and on paper, this looks like one of the best rotations in baseball.

While Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins both found new teams to play for in the AL West, the Angels went out and signed 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, a viable replacement at DH for Guerrero.

Figgins had always set the tone for the Angels lineup and now he’s gone, and leaves a big hole at third. Brandon Wood (.192 BA in 86 games over 3 years) has gotten more chances than Tom Sizemore and again gets his shot in 2010.

The bullpen starts and ends with LHP Brian Fuentes (1-5, 48 SV) and the Angels acquired Fernando Rodney (2-5, 37 SV, 1.47) this off-season, not a headline move but will prove to be important.

Too much talent left town, and not enough came into town. Revenge will play a big role, as the Angels will compete, but will eventually come up short.

Angels Projected Lineup:
Erick Aybar – SS (.312, 5 HR, 58 RBI)
Bobby Abreu – RF (.293, 15 HR, 103 RBI)
Torii Hunter – CF (.299, 22 HR, 90 RBI)
Hideki Matsui – DH (.274, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
Kendry Morales – 1B (.306, 34 HR, 108 RBI)
Juan Rivera – LF (.287, 25 HR, 88 RBI)
Howie Kendrick – 2B (.291, 10 HR, 61 RBI)
Mike Napoli – C (.272, 20 HR, 56 RBI)
Brandon Wood – 3B (.195, 1 HR, 3 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.75)
Ervin Santana (8-8, 5.03
Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89)
Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60)
Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49)
Closer – Brian Fuentes (1-5, 3.93, 48 SV)

Some prospects you could hear about before the season is over –
Hank Conger – 22 years old – Catcher – Will start season in AA
Peter Bourjos – 23 years old – Centerfielder – If Torii Hunter goes down with an injury expect this speedster to get a call to the big leagues

4. Oakland Athletics

We rarely question Billy Beane, yet its tough to see what his plan is in Oakland. They have a lot of talented young players (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey, and Vin Mazzaro) and I’m sure will look to continue to trade their older talent for some more youth.

Ben Sheets is a question mark, but might be worth the gamble. Sheets has battled injuries in Milwaukee, sitting out all of last year due to injury and a myriad of DL appearances in his career. Yet, when healthy, Sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Signing him seems like a sign and trade at the deadline much like they did with Matt Holliday. 

If the A’s have one strength heading into the 2010 season, and it is their bullpen. Led by AL ROY, Andrew Bailey (26 SV, 1.84 ERA) the A’s bullpen is absolutely phenomenal. Guys like Michael Wuertz (2.63 ERA), Brad Ziegler (3.07 ERA), Craig Breslow (3.36 ERA) and Joey Devine (0.50 ERA in 2008) make the A’s bullpen a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The Athletics lineup will not produce a lot of runs, but they should remain competitive. This young team is just that, young, and they are getting playing experience, which will only help this team down the road.

Athletics Projected Lineup:
Rajai Davis – LF (.305, 41 SB 48 RBI)
CoCo Crisp – CF (.228, 13 SB, 14 RBI)
Kurt Suzuki – C (.274, 15 HR, 88 RBI)
Jack Cust – DH (.240, 25 HR, 70 RBI)
Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3B (.255, 18 HR, 88 RBI)
Ryan Sweeney – RF (.293, 6 HR 53 RBI)
Mark Ellis – 2B (.263, 10 HR 61 RBI)
Daric Barton – 1B (.269, 3 HR, 24 RBI)
Cliff Pennington – SS (.279, 4 HR, 21 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Ben Sheets (13-9, 3.09 ’08)
Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.54 ’08)
Dallas Braden (8-9, 3.89)
Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06)
Trevor Cahill (10-13, 4.63)
Closer – Andrew Bailey (6-3, 1.84, 26 SV)

Some prospects you could hear about before the season if over –
Michael Taylor– 24 years old – LF – Could make the team out of spring training
Chris Carter – 22 years old – 1B – Powerful hitter, average defender, ROY candidate

@JayMaguire