NL East Preview

Can anyone dethrone the champs?

For the first time in three years the National League East was won without the drama of late-season charges or collapses. En route to their third consecutive divisional crown, and second straight pennant, the Philadelphia Phillies bulldozed their opponents and scored the most runs in the NL along the way.

After benefitting from September swoons by the New York Mets in 2007 and again in 2008, manager Charlie Manuel’s Phillies won 93 games and cruised to a comfortable six-game cushion over the runners-up, the surprising Florida Marlins.

Florida, the team responsible for cementing the Mets’ demise in each of the two previous seasons, got a number of encouraging individual performances, but ultimately failed to truly contend in a season they had long known would be a rebuilding year.

Another big story of 2009 was the dissolution of the dynasty that wasn’t in New York. Injuries exposed a lack of offensive talent and pitching depth, while the wholly unanticipated resurgences of second baseman Luis Castillo, outfielder Angel Pagan and utility-man Fernando Tatis were not nearly enough to offset the 331 cumulative games missed by All-Stars Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

Entering 2010, the Phillies look poised to run away with the division once again, but in a group once dominated annually by the exceptional pitching staffs of the Atlanta Braves and the Mets, offense is now the name of the game. Philadelphia is head and shoulders above the rest, but with strong staffs to challenge those big Philly hitters, and a few promising young batters of their own, Atlanta and Florida have a chance to keep the division competitive, but they must remain healthy.

1. Philadelphia Phillies- 2009 Record: 93-69, NL East Champions, NL Champions
Perhaps soured on the season by the team’s loss to the New York Yankees in the World Series, General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., attacked the off-season with the tenacity of a man whose team had fared much worse than a second consecutive National League pennant.

To replace departed third baseman Pedro Feliz, Amaro brought in erstwhile Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco, who signed a three-year pact to return to the club with whom he batted an impressive .297/.352/.439 in parts of four seasons, 2002-05. He will slide into the second spot in Philadelphia’s order, and (statistics be damned) shortstop Jimmy Rollins will remain in the leadoff spot. Center fielder Shane Victorino will move down in the order to accommodate Polanco, despite on-base percentages 62 points higher than Rollins in 2009, and 18 points higher for their respective careers.

A two-time Gold Glove winner at the keystone sack in the Motor City, Polanco will slide over to the hot corner in 2010, a position at which he has less experience, but an equally excellent pedigree. According to UZR, he is 9.9 runs better than average per 150 games at third base for his career.

Two weeks later, Amaro made a much bigger splash, landing right-handed pitcher and workhorse Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays in a whirlwind of movement that ultimately included trading port-sider Cliff Lee to the Mariners. Because Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ already project to headline Philadelphia’s starting rotation as southpaw hurlers, Lee became expendable, and Halladay’s willingness to sign an extension—it ended up being $75.75 million over the next four seasons, with a vesting option based on health for 2014—made him much more attractive than Lee, who insists he will test free-agent waters next winter.

Further tinkering by Amaro gave the Phils’ bench a new look, and revamped one of the NL’s worst 2009 bullpens. Although Happ will regress—he got lucky in 2009 to begin with—and the stable of pitchers remains somewhat unstable, the City of Brotherly Love can expect yet another team worthy of their affection in 2010.
Lineup:
SS- Rollins
3B- Polanco
2B- Utley
1B- Howard
RF- Werth
LF- Ibanez
CF- Victorino
C- Ruiz

Starting Rotation
Roy Halladay- rhp
Cole Hamels- lhp
Joe Blanton- rhp
J.A. Happ- lhp
Jamie Moyer- lhp

Bullpen
Brad Lidge- rhp
Danys Baez- rhp
Ryan Madson- rhp
J.C. Romero- lhp
Chad Durbin- rhp
Kyle Kendrick- rhp
Sergio Escalona- lhp

2. Atlanta Braves- 2009 Record: 86-76, 3rd place, NL East

The Braves should have been better than they were in 2009, and have a good chance of improving in 2010. Despite a Pythagorean record (calculated by the number of runs scored relative to the number allowed) of 91-71, they won only 86 games. A sturdy closer tandem in right-hander Rafael Soriano and left-hander Mike Gonzalez could not mask serious deficiencies in the shallow end of the bullpen, as Atlanta relievers lost 27 games, fourth-most in the National League.

This winter, GM Frank Wren bid adieu to Soriano and Gonzalez, as well as ace starting pitcher Javier Vazquez. Gonzalez signed with Baltimore, while Wren traded both Soriano and Vazquez to the American League East, as well. Atlanta’s pitching, however, remains deep, with five talented starters and a new closer in former nemesis Billy Wagner.

Wagner, 38, remains virtually unhittable when healthy, and leads a bullpen that suddenly has much more depth. Takashi Saito adds right-handed experience, and Wren nabbed right-hander Jesse Chavez from the Tampa Bay Rays in the Soriano deal to compete for the final spot. Peter Moylan is a great and undervalued commodity; the sidewinder allowed no home runs and induced 14 double plays in 73 innings last season.

Team defense could have something to say about the success or failure of all Atlanta starters. Shedding 2009 left fielder Garrett Anderson, who is out of position as soon as he sets down his bat, can only help, as will full seasons of Martin Prado’s quick feet around second base and Nate McLouth’s Gold-Glove defense of center field. The apparent decision by Atlanta’s brass to slot superior fielder Melky Cabrera—acquired in the Vazquez exchange—for left field, and leave Matt Diaz and Eric Hinske to platoon in right is not at all wise, however, and could come back to haunt the club.

Then, of course, there is the potential impact of super-prospect Jason Heyward, whose Minor-League numbers suggest he could be ready as early as mid-season. He would be an immediate defensive upgrade, boasting one of the Minors’ strongest right-field arms, but manager Bobby Cox would need to help the 20 year-old deal with the lumps all rookies take.

Offensively, the Braves subscribe to the method of death by a thousand tiny cuts. Of the team’s six returning starters, three hit .290 or higher in 2009, and no fewer than four could easily hit .300 next year. Prado and Yunel Escobar look ready to become the first Braves starting double-play combination since Eddie Stanky and Alvin Dark in 1948 to each bat over .300. In that season, two cities and over six decades ago, the Boston Braves won the National League pennant. That would be a tough road for these Braves to hoe, but they could well win the Wild Card if things break right, and have the pitching to be dangerous if that happens.

Lineup:
CF- Nate McLouth
2B- Martin Prado
3B- Chipper Jones
C- Brian McCann
SS- Yunel Escobar
1B- Troy Glaus
LF- Melky Cabrera
RF- Matt Diaz/Eric Hinske

Starting Rotation
Jair Jurrjens- rhp
Derek Lowe- rhp
Tommy Hanson- rhp
Tim Hudson- rhp
Kenshin Kawakami- rhp

Bullpen
Billy Wagner- lhp
Peter Moylan- rhp
Eric O’Flaherty- lhp
Kris Medlen- rhp
Manny Acosta- rhp
Takashi Saito- rhp
Jesse Chavez- rhp

3. Florida Marlins- 2009 record: 87-75, 2nd place, NL East

The Fightin’ Fish flopped in their quest to make winning the World Series a sexennial habit, despite a late-season charge that saw them go 19-12 after the calendar flipped to September. The team had also started the season well, going 11-1 to start the year and finishing April at 14-8, the leaders of the division.

Their last day alone in first place, however, came May 3, and thereafter the team collapsed in upon itself. Defensive Efficiency Rate (DER), a team-based defensive metric that measures what percentage of balls put into play a given club is able to turn into outs, reveals that the Marlins were the worst on the senior circuit in that crucial department. That lack of defensive prowess was too much for the club’s two talented ace right-handers, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, to overcome, and the Marlins finished tenth in the league in runs allowed.

A mid-season trade for Washington Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson looked smart only until Johnson predictably hit the disabled list in mid-August; Florida went 6-10 with Johnson shelved.

This season, the Marlins seem ready to finally commit to Cameron Maybin as their everyday center fielder, a move that should help their defense at both that position, and in right field, where Cody Ross is much more comfortable; Ross had to play out of position in center for the majority of 2009.

First baseman Gaby Sanchez, 26, is another prospect to whom the Marlins finally seem ready to award an everyday job. Though injuries slowed him somewhat in 2009, his career numbers in the Minor Leagues, and in limited time in the Majors, should be cause for head-scratching among whatever true Marlins fans still exist in the world. He could add a crucial third threat to the heart of the Florida order.

In terms of the arms with which new pitching coach Randy St. Claire will work, it’s a less lyrical response to the old refrain: “Johnson and Nolasco, and pray for rain.” The bullpen, which lacked the crucial skills of missing bats and throwing strikes already, now also has lost its most experienced elements. Matt Lindstrom and Kiko Calero both exited after 2009, with Lindstrom going to the Astros in trade for prospects in December and Calero sitting idle on the free-agent market.

While the Fish have added right-hander Mike MacDougal in an effort to add closer experience and insure themselves against a likely collapse by Leo Nunez, they still don’t have the run-prevention profile to compete in 2010. Nor are they only one year away. The thing Marlins fans can most look forward to, at this point, may be the opening of the team’s new ballpark in 2012.

Lineup:
Lf- Chris Coghlan
CF- Cameron Maybin
SS- Hanley Ramirez
3B- Jorge Cantu
2B- Dan Uggla
1B- Gaby Sanchez
RF- Cody Ross
C- John Baker

Starting Rotation
Josh Johnson- rhp
Ricky Nolasco- rhp
Anibal Sanchez- rhp
Sean West- lhp
Chris Volstad- rhp

Bullpen
Leo Nunez- rhp
Mike MacDougal- rhp
Dan Meyer- lhp
Brian Sanches- rhp
Renyel Pinto- lhp
Burke Badenhop- rhp
Jose Ceda- rhp

4. New York Mets- 2009 Record: 70-92, 4th place, NL East

There seems to be widespread belief that the Metropolitans will experience some measurable degree of improvement this season, but the reasons for that optimism are hazy. Three of the four aforementioned injured stars will be back sometime in 2010, but Carlos Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season. Delgado, meanwhile, is clearly not a part of GM Omar Minaya’s plans, while a first base platoon of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis seems likely.

Wright and Reyes should each have healthy and productive seasons, but two stars do not a contender make. The corps around them is no longer made up of stellar second-tier players, as was the 2006 squad that came so tantalizingly close to a pennant.

Southpaw starting ace Johan Santana’s rehab program is going well, but for the first time in the last six or seven years, there is reason to believe that even a healthy Santana is no longer a silver bullet.

Closer Francisco Rodriguez, meanwhile, stayed healthy all season, but might wish he hadn’t. He had his worst save percentage since 2004, and his worst ERA and WHIP ever. He struck out fewer batters than he had since 2002, a season in which he pitched only 5 2/3 innings, and walked a career-high 38. His slider lost some of its bite—reflective of this, FanGraphs mapped what had been sliders through 2008 as curveballs in 2009—and therefore ceased to be the deadly pitch upon which he relied for so long. Just a year and a half removed from a record-setting season in which he saved 62 games, Rodriguez bears all the markings of a serious and imminent washout risk.

Although the consensus is that Citi Field will see some measure of course correction from its extreme negative impact on run scoring in 2010, the Mets cannot count on that regression for improvement: they actually went 41-40 at home last season, and of their league-low 95 team home runs, a majority (49) came at home. The team may win 75-77 games, but in the tough East division, that will only be good enough for another modest fourth-place finish.

Lineup:
SS- Jose Reyes
2B- Luis Castillo
3B- David Wright
CF- Carlos Beltran
LF- Jason Bay
1B- Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
RF- Jeff Francoeur
C- Rod Barajas

Starting Rotation:
Johan Santana- lhp
Mike Pelfrey- rhp
John Maine- rhp
Oliver Perez- lhp
Fernando Nieve- rhp

Bullpen:
Francisco Rodriguez- rhp
Kelvim Escobar- rhp
Sean Green- rhp
Pedro Feliciano- rhp
Ryota Igarashi- rhp
Jon Niese- lhp
Pat Misch- lhp

5. Washington Nationals- 2009 Record: 59-103, 5th place, NL East

Stephen Strasburg might need to learn to throw left-handed.

On top of giving him the platoon advantage at all times, that move could allow the Nationals to use him twice as often, maybe even enough to earn the massive contract to which he signed before throwing his first professional pitch. Of course, in reality, Strasburg has only one golden arm (his right); the team has no plans to rush him along; and it probably would not matter, anyway.

That is because the Nationals, though a solidly average team at the plate, are entirely, unequivocally and untenably awful both in the field and on the mound. The additions of Jason Marquis and Brian Bruney to the rotation and bullpen, respectively, do little to address the issue. Marquis, to the chagrin of trivia lovers everywhere, signed a free-agent pact with Washington, ensuring in the process that he will play for a team that misses the playoffs. He had not done so, until now, in his ten big-league seasons.

Offensively, the team will only improve, as mid-season acquisition Nyjer Morgan adds stability in center field, and at the top of the order. The corner infield and outfield spots also provide good offensive value. Unless and until the team beefs up its defense and middle infield, however, it will continue to flounder. Shortstop prospect Ian Desmond could help there, if only management would move the overvalued Cristian Guzman aside for him.

Lineup:
CF- Nyjer Morgan
SS- Cristian Guzman
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
1B- Adam Dunn
LF- Josh Willingham
RF- Elijah Dukes
2B- Adam Kennedy
C- Ivan Rodriguez

Starting Rotation:
John Lannan- lhp
Jason Marquis- rhp
Scott Olsen- lhp
J.D. Martin- rhp
Livan Hernandez- rhp

Bullpen:
Matt Capps- rhp
Brian Bruney- rhp
Garrett Mock- rhp
Jason Bergmann- rhp
Jordan Zimmerman- rhp
Tyler Clippard- rhp
Sean Burnett- lhp

Matt Trueblood