NL West Preview

How will the NL West be won?

An off season of gun shoot wounds, nasty divorces, and marijuana charges must mean only one thing; we are talking about the NL West!

All kidding aside, this might be the most competitive division in baseball, for better of for worse. Much like last year, you can expect to see these five teams beat each other up, with two emerging down the stretch in September for the division.

Last seasons division champions the Dodgers come in with hopes of defending their division crown once again, but with off the field issues rearing their head it could be their stiffest test yet.

The Rockies will be looking to actually stay hot for an entire season instead of the usual, “oh hey lets catch up and win a million games in a row” form which has teased their fans the last few seasons.

The Giants enjoyed the 1-2 punch of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain but still came up short in the division due to a still figuring it out offensive side of the unit.

It was the Adrian Gonzalez show for the Padres, but his supporting cast of characters failed to come close to his production as the team hopes their youth comes through more in 2010.

Dan Haren was all the Diamondbacks had last season, but when Brandon Webb went down hope was gone for the snakes. A healthy back in form Webb could be just what the young Diamondbacks needs to return to their early 2000’s prominence.

Colorado Rockies (92-70) Lost to Phillies in NLDS

If the Rockies can improve on two things this season, they can and will win the National League West.

One: Start off on the right foot. Last season on May 29th, the Rockies were 19-28 and firing skipper Clint Hurlde for bench coach Jim Tracey. The rest is history as they caught fire and won the wild card.

Two: Find a way to beat the Dodgers. The Rockies were only 3-12 vs. the Dodgers in 2010; imagine if they could have won just a handful more of those games, they would have taken the division.

I like the Rockies here because their starting rotation just does enough. They were the only team in baseball to have their five man rotation each win at least 10 games and who said nobody could pitch in Coors Field? The Rockies ranked 8th in RA/G at 4.42.

Four of the starters return the season, with Jason Marquis leaving via free agency to the Nationals. Jeff Francis will be looking to bounce back to his former 2007 form after missing the entire 2009 season due to injury. Also, Taylor Bucholtz will return in 2010, and the setup man has shown before his arm injury last season, that he has plenty of ability as a setup man.

It took a few weeks, but Huston Street figured it out and anchored the bullpen as the closer with a 3.06 era pitching in 61.1 innings. Fans will not remember his last moments fondly however, as he gave up 3 runs with the Rockies leading 4-2 as the Phillies won the NLDS. No doubt he will be back in form

The offense will be as good as always and assisted by a little depth. Newly signed Melvin Mora will back up Ian Stewart at 3rd base, while Jason Giambi will spell Todd Helton when needed. Expect SS Troy Tulowitzki to put up huge numbers again, just as he did last season hitting 32 HRs and driving in 92 runs.

The Rockies have never been to the playoffs in back to back seasons, but with a good mix of veterans and young guns, the Rockies can not only make the playoffs but take the division.

Lineup:
RF Brad Hawpe
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
2B Clint Barnes
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Todd Helton
3B Ian Stewart
C Chris Iannetta

Starting rotation:
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Jeff Francis

Bullpen:
Huston Street (CL)
Manuel Corpas
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Esmil Rogers
Rafael Betancourt
Troy Bucholtz
Randy Flores
Matt Belisle
Samuel Deduno

Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) Lost in NLCS

One organization dying to return to the field is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plenty has happened this off-season, as Manny says he will not return, SP Vicente Padilla shot himself in the leg, and the owner is fighting to save his money in a divorce. Plus is this might be Joe Torre’s swan song?

For the Dodgers to be successful, they need to limit these distractions. How hard will Manny Ramirez play? Has he packed it in already? His comment about not playing for the Dodgers in 2011 is a strange one and there must be something behind the scenes for him to say that. Making one to think that he has been told by management they will not be giving him a new contract. Just how much payroll will have to be slashed in the soon to be nasty divorce between owners Frank and Jamie McCourt?

The Dodgers were 12-3 vs. Colorado, 7-4 vs. Arizona, 9-4 vs. San Diego, and 7-5 vs. their rivals the Giants. If they can complete that kind of success once again they will be tough to beat. A full season of Vicente Padilla is sure to be a roller coaster ride, just ask Texas Ranger fans, and the Dodgers will be carried by a stellar pitching staff and maybe the most solid defense in the National league. At 3.77 RA/G, the Dodgers were #1 in all of baseball.

The departure of Jon Garland means there is an opening in the starting rotation yet to be filled, so the battle to complete the rotation will be interesting this spring in Arizona. Jeff Weaver, who pitched in 2009 for the Dodgers and actually won game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Cardinals, was pitching on a minor league contract which expired at the end of the season. On February 2 he signed a new minor league deal which will bring him to camp with a chance to win that coveted rotation spot. Many people tip Eric Stults to be his main competitor.

With all the focus on the pitching staff and their ability to pitch well at home, you can’t forget these boys can hit too. Andre Either and Matt Kemp each drove in over 100 runs while hitting 31 and 26 HRs respectively. While missing 50 games due to suspension and losing a little over 200 AB compared to Either and Kemp, Manny was still Manny hitting 19 HR with 63RBI hitting .290. Like I said though, will Manny have that same Dodger love and passion after saying this is it?

Expect a tight race between the Dodgers and Rockies, but the Dodgers will fall a little short. However, they control their own fate, as their final 18 games come against NL west opponents. In that final stretch, they play 2 three game series at ARZ and COL, before wrapping up the season with a three game home series with ARZ. Look for the Dodgers to snatch up the wild card.

Lineup:
SS Rafael Furcal
1B James Loney
LF Manny Ramirez?RF Andre Ethier
CF Matt Kemp?3B Casey Blake
C Russell Martin
2B Ronnie Belliard

Starting rotation:
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda?
Vicente Padilla?

Bullpen:
George Sherrill?Jonathan Broxton (CL) ?Hong-Chih Kuo?Ramon Troncoso?Ronald Belisario?James McDonald?Carlos Monasterios
Eric Stults

Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92)

The biggest rebound team maybe in the National League could be the Arizona Diamondbacks. To say heads dropped once Brandon Webb went down last season for the year is an understatement. This was a young team counting on young hitters and the 1-2 punch of Dan Haren and BWebb, but with injuries and inexperience, the DBacks faltered to last in the division.

Dan Haren was an all star and absolutely dominated in 2009 and in a day in age when it’s hard to trust your pitcher to last during the wear and tear of a baseball season, Haren has been the man to count on. The righty has pitched at least 33 games each of the last 5 seasons. Throw in the fact he does so while dominating hitters, what more could an organization ask for in a starter. It will be nearly impossible to top the career best numbers he had last year, but Haren will most definitely be the Diamondbacks ace.

The Diamondbacks absolutely made out like bandits by acquiring stud RHP Edwin Jackson in a trade from the Detroit Tigers. Jackson will fit into the 3rd spot in the rotation, but he could be a #2 or even #1 on plenty of teams in the bigs. The 26 year old 2009 all star also showed his durability by pitching over 200 innings last season for the first time. With a two year contract entering this season already awarded for Jackson, he can pitch without worries of what team or what his future will be for the first time in a few seasons.

All eyes this season will be on Justin Upton this season. The younger brother of Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton, Justin might have even more talent than B.J, and that’s scary. The young right fielder has the speed, power, and average to be an all star for years to come. Not a bad first full season when you have 158 hits, 26 HRs, 86RBIs, 7 3Bs, and 20 SBs. Not to mention watching him fly around RF is a joy to watch.

Third baseman Mark Reynolds needs to address his strike out issues. For the second straight year, the 26 year old broke the MLB record for strikeouts at 223. It is the only blemish in his game. He is such a great hitter as he led the team in HR, RBI, and runs scored. Fans have been and will continue to be patient with Reynolds, since he just completed only his second season in the bigs. Expect more of the same from Reynolds as the tag team effort of Reynolds and Upton will help lead the Diamondbacks to one of the biggest turn a rounds of the season.

If the Diamondbacks can sure up a bullpen that struggled last season, Brandon Webb stays healthy, Haren is Haren, Edwin Jackson struts his stuff, newly acquired Ian Kennedy finally gets his career on track, and the young offense continues to improve, the Diamondbacks will make a wild card push. I think they are 1 more season away from competing for the division crown and regular playoff contention. Stay patient Diamondback fans because GM Josh Byrnes has done some great wheeling and dealing.

Lineup:
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Conor Jackson LF
Miguel Montero C
Chris Young CF

Starting rotation:
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Billy Buckner

Bullpen:
Chad Qualls (CL)
Bob Howry
Blaine Bowyer
Juan Gutierrez
Aaron Heilman
Clay Zavada
Esmerling Vasquez
Leo Rosales
Zach Kroenke

San Francisco Giants (88-74)

The San Francisco Giants were a surprise team last season. Tiny Tim Lencicum only got even better, and won the Cy Young doing so. Nobody knows just how high the ceiling is for this guy, but watching him pitch only makes my arm feel like its going to fall off, and I’m only sitting in my recliner. The guy throws his whole body into every pitch, and shows no wear and tear for it. Matt Cain also dominated and could have wont he Cy Young himself if not slightly overshadowed by his younger teammate. However, the team by the bay offensively could not match the riches of the pitching staff and fell short in the Wild Card race.

The organization knew their weakness and went straight after improving it in the off-season. Last season the Giants ranked near the bottom of the NL charts, at13th in runs, 15th in HR, and last in OPS. While they did sign IF/OF Mark DeRosa and IF Aubrey Huff, DeRosa is coming back from off season wrist surgery and benefited from hitting in a stellar Cardinal lineup. Huff drove in 85 runs last season but only hit .240. While they are additions, they are will not solve all the problems. A full season of former Pirate Freddy Sanchez at 2B should help the cause as well. Pablo Sandoval came out of nowhere and hit .330 was the only hitter to bat over .300. Can he repeat the same success?

What can you say about the pitching staff, it’s almost hard to describe. Giant fans are lucky to be watching Lincecum and heck even Matt Cain. It took long enough for Giant fans, but even Barry Zito kind of figured it out. So much will ride on Zito this season, if he can improve even slightly the Giants can finish better than predicted, as long as their offense helps out. Watch out for another kid, SP Madison Bumgarner, who looked good. He should slip into the tail end of the Giants rotation; this young kid could be a stud in the making.

Brian Wilson saved 38 games and was steady as the Giants closer last season. He had a lot to live up to after 41 saves in 2008, but Wilson was none the less solid. He was spectacular in the 2nd half of 2009, racking up a 1.64 ERA while 1.15 WHIP. Two seasons on the job, 79 saves, not too shabby.

The pitching staff looks amazing. Can their offense win those 2-1, 3-2 games though? The pressure is on the offense since it has been designated as the weakness, so can they deliver? We will see, but the lofty expectations might get to them and it will be hard to execute quite the success this team had last season. They will be good, but in a loaded NL west, the improvements might not be enough.

Lineup:
CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Mark DeRosa
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
2B Freddy Sanchez
C Bengi Molina
RF Nate Schierholtz

Rotation:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner

Bullpen:
Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Sergio Romo
Brandon Medders
Joe Martinez
Henry Sosa
Waldis Joaquin
Dan Runzler

San Diego Padres (75-87)

Listen up Padres fans and repeat after me, many many times, “patience is a virtue, patience is a virtue.” Padres’ fans seem to understand that these Padres are building to win down the road, and not so much right now. In 2009 the Padres saw the end of the Jake Peavy era as he was traded for four prospects to the White Sox. The Padres still improved on their record in 2009 though, improving their record by 12 games from 2008.

Not to be super harsh, but in 2009 it was a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of other guys. While Gonzalez lead the team in HR, RBI, runs, and OPS (40, 99, 90, .958) they still ranked at or near the bottom in team average (16th), run (15th), OBP (12th), SLG (16th), OPS (15th). While the pitching was good or average, the offense didn’t help the cause.

The bad news is, the Padres did very little to improve themselves offensively, which is sure not to sit to well with Gonzalez, who at some point could become frustrated with carrying the load. Trading third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, maybe their second biggest bat in the lineup, and then pumping up the addition of Jerry Hairston Jr. isn’t going to do this pitching staff many favors.

I don’t care what anyone says, the Padres have to keep Gonzalez. The thought of trading your best player is something I have never understood, especially when he is one of the better players in the league. Right now the Padres could get nothing of equal value. The Padres will continue to lean on him and their young hitters, such as Tony Gwynn Jr. and Chase Headley.

The Padres did add a new, high-quality quality arm in Jon Garland, and did so on the cheap. With a payroll only at $40 million this season, to sign Garland (who was looking for around $10 million more) on a $5.3 million dollar one year deal was a good move. He will slip into the rotation at the third spot, and maybe second, behind Chris Young. The giant right hander had a shaky season, with a few glimpses of greatness and the sometimes head scratching performance sprinkled in. However, he only pitched in 14 games, and most everyone gives him the benefit of the doubt that injuries contributed to his troubles.

The good news, Padres fans can sit back, enjoy the superb weather and watch some other young pitchers with good potential. Clayton Richards, who came from Chicago in the Peavy deal, is a ground ball pitcher who has shown his upside, including one game where the 26 year old held the Dodgers scoreless in seven innings of work. Mat Latos, one of the Padres top prospects, will start the season in the majors. This 22 year old has great control and can throw fire with 97 mph heat. Latos struck out 39 hitters in the 50.2 innings pitched late in the season.

Heath Bell is the closer, who somehow dodged the trade deadline and remained in beautiful San Diego. While he is only 32, it would be hard to imagine the Padres not trading the 2009 all star at the deadline if they aren’t in contention, which they really shouldn’t be. Bell is and will be a coveted closer, who compiled 42 saves out of 48 chances with opponents hitting .213 against him. Bell will be stellar when given the chance once again.

It will be a season similar to last for the Padres, but hey, they did at least land one big fish, and he will not even be on the field, as Dick Enberg joins the Padres TV crew.

Lineup:
SS Everth Cabrera
2B David Eckstein
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Chase Headley
LF Kyle Blanks
C Nick Hundley
RF Will Venable
CF Scott Hairston

Starting Rotation:
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos

Bullpen
Heath Bell (CL)
Edward Mujica
Luke Gregerson
Luis Perdomo
Joe Thatcher
Ryan Webb

Ladies and gentlemen, that’s all for the National League West. It is gonna be a doozy and maybe the best division in baseball. The best part of that is, it’s a bunch of teams with a good mix of young talent, and it’s going to remain a tough battle for years to come. The Padres and Diamondbacks will get there and join the rest of the west, just give them time.

David Fallavollita