What Happened to Chad Billingsley?

What the hell happened to Chad Billingsley?

The Los Angeles Dodgers enter 2010 as the favorites to win the National League’s West division, and are neck-and-neck with the Colorado Rockies for that honor. If Los Angeles were to win, it would be their third consecutive division crown, and Joe Torre’s Hall of Fame managerial resume would get yet another positive bump.

For that to happen, however, Torre and his coaching staff must find a way to ensure that their starting pitching rotation can at least begin to measure up to the very talented staffs in both Colorado and Arizona, as well as the stellar group led by two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum for the San Francisco Giants.

That kind of steady production, in turn, hinges upon the recovery (or not) of 25-year-old erstwhile ace Chad Billingsley from a disastrous second half of 2009. Billingsley, a 2003 first-round pick of the Dodgers, had a solid 2.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.38 ERA through the All-Star break last season. Thereafter, however, his command ratio dropped to 1.83 over his final 14 appearances (13 starts), and his ERA during that span was an unsightly 5.20.

Billingsley may have felt the effects of fatigue during his second-half swoon. From April 13 to June 9, Billingsley was asked to throw 100 or more pitches in twelve consecutive starts. That qualifies as abusive usage for a young arm, particularly because Billingsley had thrown some 200 2/3 innings in 2008. That number is some 53 2/3 higher than he had thrown in any previous professional season, and according to what is known as the Verducci Effect, Billingsley was therefore at risk for significant regression, anyway.

Walks have always followed Billingsley, but there had been real reason for hope after 2008. That year, the native Ohioan managed over nine strikeouts per nine innings (a career high) and walked 3.52 per nine frames (a career low). Despite his sparkling surface-level numbers (he was 9-3 with a 2.72 ERA after winning against the Texas Rangers on June 14), however, Billingsley struggled with control even during his All-Star first half: he struck out 93 but walked 39 in just over 90 innings up to that point. He eventually posted a 3.94 figure in walks per nine innings, and saw his punch-out rate fall to only 8.21 whiffs per nine.

Worse, Billingsley uncorked a league-leading 14 wild pitches, suggesting that his control may be even worse than the bare walks numbers suggest. To back up that assertion, consider Billingsley’s percentage of pitches thrown inside the strike zone last year: 45.6 percent, fifth-worst among 77 qualifying starters and within one strike of being second-worst.

The central question, then, becomes exactly what precipitated that abrupt decline. The answer to that question may lie in pitch selection. Billingsley threw his fastball about 60 percent of the time in 2008, but in 2009, he suddenly threw it less than 50 percent of the time. In its stead, he threw his cutter (a devastatingly good one, in general, but a tougher pitch to control) about 23 percent of the time, and curveballs accounted for another 23 percent of his pitches. Both of those figures represent significant increases in the degree to which Billingsley relied upon them, relative to last season.

Was the reason a change in approach, or a simple difference in the perceptions of pitch trackers? As it turns out, the shift is attributable to something far less likely, and far more explanatory. Billingsley had the very odd misfortune, in 2009, to face left-handed batters 14 percent more often than he faced right-handed ones. Lefties batted against him 53 more times than righties. For perspective, consider that right-handed pitchers throughout the senior circuit faced left-handed batters seven percent less often than they faced right-handers. In response to the disproportionate number of lefty batters he faced, Billingsley (whose fastball is much more effective against right-handers than lefties) threw his cutter and curveball much more.

If opponents intentionally sent up left-handed batters to counteract Billingsley, the strategy was ill-advised: Billingsley’s command ratio against them was 2.54, versus 1.64 against right-handed hitters. He gave up nearly one-third fewer home runs per nine innings against left-handers, and kept the ball on the ground 60 percent more often. Lefties, however, managed a .331 batting average on balls in play against him, versus a .254 figure by right-handed ones.

The frequency with which he faces each type of batter should return to relative normalcy in 2010–especially given his stellar performance against left-handed batters last season. That could help Billingsley quite a bit. Despite last year’s stats, he has a much more normal set of platoon splits for his career, with a 1.58 career WHIP against left-handed hitters and a markedly better 1.19 versus right-handers.

All told, 2009 wasn’t even that much of a setback for Billingsley. Assuming his control issues do not indicate elbow trouble, he could be in for a very real resurgence at the dawn of the new decade. It will be impossible to know just how much improvement to expect until Billingsley has established a more comfortable spring rhythm.

Meantime, it might be noted that his 1.32 WHIP last year was a career-best mark, and that the removal of a nasty four-start stretch in July would leave him with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.49 ERA, plus 163 strikeouts in 178 innings. At 25, going on 26, there is no reason Billingsley should not be back in top form next season.

Matt Trueblood

What the hell happened to Chad Billingsley? March 16, 2010 – Matt Trueblood The Los Angeles Dodgers enter 2010 as the favorites to win the National League’s West division, and are neck-and-neck with the Colorado Rockies for that honor. If Los Angeles were to win, it would be their third consecutive division crown, and Joe [...]