Not Perfect, but Very Impressive

E-Jack is the latest pitcher to throw a NO-NO

I’m going to say it so that there is no mistaking what I’m trying to say: Edwin Jackson’s no hitter was very unimpressive. It’s amazing to me that in the hard to please sports world that we are talking about a no hitter like that as if it should have wowed anyone. The only thing that was really wowing about what he did was that he didn’t have his arm fall off in the ninth inning. Surviving that performance was more impressive then orchestrating it.

Edwin Jackson threw a no-hitter on 149 pitches and walked 8. His performance can easily be categorized as sloppy. To me, and I believe others in the sporting world, a no-hitter is the mark of a dominating pitching performance. A perfect game is the epitome but we understand how hard it is to be perfect, even for a day. So what a no-hitter is a game where the rights are many and the mistakes are few.

The last no hitter I remember vividly was Mark Buerhle’s in 07. Now I am a big fan of his for numerous reasons but with that being said, he exemplified what a no-hitter is. He faced the minimum. He walked Sosa but picked him off first. He made but one mistake and his dominant day was able to make up for it.

When you walk 8 guys that does not equal dominant to me. It feels at that point like the no-hitter was more the product of the Rays not being able to capitalize on mistakes made by Jackson more than by Jackson himself. It’s amazing to me that the media is so quick to celebrate the feat but not to judge the feat for what it was. It was a no-hitter than felt more like a sub standard pitching performance.

This is the same thing that has bothered me about Nolan Ryan’s career record 7 no-hitters. In 3 of them he had 4 walks or more. Certainly Ryan struck out a lot of guys in his very big career but strikeouts do not erase walks in the record books and he had two games where he walked 4 and 1 game where he walked 8. To me it’s a sloppy performance.

But like Ryan, Jackson will not be remembered for the amount of walks he issued. In the record books it will look just the same but we have to remember that not all things are the same. We have to hold ourselves to what the standard of a no-hitter is and not hold each one in the same regard. Nolan Ryan had some absolutely masterful performances in his career and so has Jackosn. I just don’t think Jackson’s no hitter counts as one.

Mike Cahill
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Positional Power Rankings

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not

As July approaches we start seeing players thin out. Those who are great are proving that they are back to old form. Those who were thought to be flukes are anything but and then there are those who you just can’t explain. So let’s see who is still on top of the mountain at the end of June.

CATCHERS
5. Ryan Doumit (Pirates) – A Pittsburgh player coming on strong with a .762 OPS. This is proof that not everything in Pittsburgh sucks.
4. Mike Napoli (Angels) – The LA catcher has a .482 SLG percentage. And could be the reason that the Angels end up winning the West. That and because the Mariners suck way worse than we imagined.
3. Brian McCann (Braves) – A .815 OPS is a reason why this guy is always in the top 5 of catchers every year.
2. Joe Mauer (Twins) – A really sub par season so far. I say this about a guy who’s batting .307 with an .821 OPS on a first place team. That’s how good Mauer is.
1. Victor Martinez (Red Sox) – With a .295 Avg he is proving that someone in Boston can hit consistently.

FIRST BASEMEN
5. Albert Pujols (Cardinals) – Ok, so he ranks fifth and has an OPS under 1.000. I’m still guessing he isn’t on the trading block.
4. Paul Konerko (White Sox) – Score one for my hometown hero. He’s been the most consistent player on the team and a big reason why the Sox are still in a playoff race…that and because the division looks really weak.
3. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) – The guy bats .331. When are people going to stand up and take notice of him. He’s so good.
2. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) – His OPS is 1.028 and he’s got 15 dingers. Don’t look now, but that’s two Boston guys who have figured out the whole “batting” thing.
1. Justin Morneau (Twins) – So with him and Mauer I can’t understand why the Twins aren’t running away with the Central. Maybe they went too much for big bats and not enough with what made them perennial division champs.

SECOND BASEMEN
5. Martin Prado (Braves) – Here’s a guy who should be near the top of this list for years.
4. Chase Utley (Phillies) – A great season…ho hum.
3. Kelly Johnson (Diamondbacks) – .864 OPS makes him a dangerous hitter at his position.
2. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox) – Why was/is Boston having trouble keeping the offense going? It’s a mystery.
1. Robinson Cano (Yankees) – Well finally the Yankees get the hitter they have so desperately needed.

SHORTSTOPS
5. Jose Reyes (Mets) – It’s nice to see Reyes back in the mix of elite shortstops.
4. Alex Gonzalez (Blue Jays) – The guy has 14 home runs. Not bad at all.
3. Juan Uribe (Giants) – This is exactly the moment where the rankings started getting weird the last time.
2. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies) – He has a .375 OBP. That’s pretty impressive even though he does play for the Rockies.
1. Hanley Ramirez (Marlins) – 11 home runs and 44 RBI makes him the best shortstop in baseball. Was there ever any question?

THIRD BASEMEN
5. Evan Longoria (Rays) – So this ranking is weird, this is where it starts. Longoria in the top 5? No surprise there.
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) – Ok. He’s been good for the last few years. He should be there.
3. David Wright (Mets) – Still a guy you expect to see here. I mean these three guys are current.
2. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox) What? What? What? Is this 2004? Where did this guy come from. Check his locker…just kidding. But maybe.
1. Scott Rolen (Reds) – Where the hell has he been? That’s just bizarre. Just bizarre. But good for him. We like a good comeback story. It’s nice to see Rolen isn’t dead.

LEFT FIELD
5. Carl Crawford (Rays) – Hot Carl keeps things going. 26 stolen bases and in a free agent year.
4. Alfonso Soriano (Cubs) – That’s weird. I didn’t think anyone on the Cubs were playing baseball.
3. Matt Holliday (Cardinals) – He’s batting .304 and has 11 Homeruns. There are times when he looks like the best hitter on the team. What’s wrong with Albert?
2. Josh Willingham (Nationals) – He’s got a .905 OPS and he’s one of 3 reasons to watch the Nationals.
1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers) – This is the year of the comeback. Glad people can feel good about Hamilton again. He’s hitting .348.

CENTER FIELD
5. Marlon Byrd (Cubs) – That’s two guys on the North Side who still play baseball. That’s something to build on, right?
4. Torii Hunter (Angels) – He’s hitting a respectable .285 and he plays an amazing center field.
3. Vernon Wells (Blue Jays) – Here’s Wells big middle finger to all those who thought he was washed up.
2. Alex Rios (White Sox) – Here’s Rios big middle finger to all those who thought he was washed up.
1. Colby Rasmus (Cardinals) – Here’s hoping he stays relevant for a long time because his name is that much fun to say.

RIGHT FIELD
5. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays) – If I told you that by the All-Star break this guy would be the home run king, would you have believed me?
4. Magglio Ordonez (Tigers) – He’s a .320 hitter and provides great protection in a good lineup.
3. Corey Hart (Brewers) – Here’s a young guy who can hit the hell out of the ball. Very good player.
2. Andre Ethier (Dodgers) – .317, still one of the better right fielders in baseball.
1. Jayson Werth (Phillies) – Batting .295 and is showing teams that he is just as important to that lineup as anyone.

STARTERS
5. Cliff Lee (Mariners) – The stock can’t be any higher for the soon to be free agent with a 2.39 ERA.
4. Roy Halladay (Phillies) With his low ERA it doesn’t make sense that he would have six losses. Especially with a lineup that potent.
3. Josh Johnson (Marlins) – The Marlins have had an up and down year but Johnson has been the steady had in that rotation.
2. Jaime Garcia (Cardinals) – I vote to erect a statue to Dave Duncan. Who the hell is Jaime Garcia? If he were on any other team the fans would want him gone or benched. Not with Dave Duncan. I’m pretty sure I could win 10 games with Duncan as my pitching coach.
1. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) – 1 loss and an ERA of 1.60. Can we just give him the CY Young now? Why bother waiting?

CLOSERS
5. Francisco Cordero (Reds) – This guy is a main reason the Reds are still in a fight for the division.
4. Neftali Feliz (Rangers) – 20 Saves and an ERA under 3.
3. Heath Bell (Padres) – I don’t know that I’m surprised Bell is doing well. I’m more surprised he’s had 20 save opportunities.
2. Brian Wilson (Giants) – He’s good. We knew he’d have to be and he has delivered.
1. Matt Capps (Nationals) – Look at the best pitcher on the Nationals…next to Baby Jesus.

Mike Cahill
Twitter

VIDEO: Watch The Tampa Bay Rays Fight

The Rays Are Feeling the Heat

Nothing like Carlos Zambrano vs Michael Barrett but MLB teams are starting to feel the heat!

Matt Anaya
Twitter

Breaking Down the AL East

The Beasts of the East

The last three American League Champions have come from the American League East. (2007 Boston, 2008 Tampa Bay, 2009 New York). The 2010 season is shaping up much the same way.

For the first two months of the season, Tampa Bay and New York were playing great baseball and Boston was beginning to drop in the standings. Since a weekend series sweep in Tampa back in early May, the Red Sox have come on strong and the Rays have cooled off making this a three horse race once again. Nelw York is STILL playing great baseball and have probably been the most consistant team in all of baseball.

With the All-Star Break just around the corner, it will be interesting to see which team from the East starts to seperate itself from the rest of the pack.

New York Yankees (43-26):
The Yankees are the obvious favorite to repeat and have very few chinks in the armor.

Every hitter one through nine can put the ball in the seats and the starting rotation can shut down opposting hitters. The Bronx Bombers are currently tied for the most wins in the majors with Boston.

The Yankees are in the top 10 in average, HR, hits and RBI and Robinson Cano leads the team in all offensive categories, including home runs (14). In a line-up with names like Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, it is a little surprising to see Cano off to such a good start.

Good pitching beats good hitting and there aren’t too many staffs as good as the Yankees starting five. The most important aspect to the success of the Yankees is AJ Burnett.

When Burnett can piece together a few quality starts, the Yankees always go on winning streaks.

If the staff can stay healthy and keep CC Sabathia and Javier Vasquez pitching deep into games can continue to pitch deep into games and save the bullpen innings it should pay off in late August and September. If Andy Pettitte can be, well, Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will be in good shape heading into the second half of the season. If you are going to beat the Yankees you have to get into their bullpen early.

Boston Red Sox (43-28):
Boston got off to a slow start but have come on strong as of late, sweeping a three game series against LA at Fenway. The biggest change for the Sox has been the run production from the middle of the lineup. The bats have started to heat up and Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Victor Martinez have started to produce. The Sox are currently tied with New York for the most wins in baseball.

The Red Sox started the season with a mediocre April and May but June has seen ten “Big Papi” longballs and seven Kevin Youkilis taters. Other role players like Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro are showing signs of life and Martinez seems to finally be settling in comfortably in Boston.

Boston needs Pedroia to continue to get on base for Ortiz, Martinez and Beltre. Centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (DL- ribs) has only played in nine games for the Sox this season and should return to the lineup sometime in the next few weeks and add his speed to the top of the order.

Even without their number one starter, Josh Beckett (DL -back), the rotation of John Lackey, Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka has really held it together for Boston. The consistant pitching from Bucholz has been a pleasant surprise for Red Sox Nation. Bucholz has started just as many games as Lester, pitched one fewer inning and currently leads the team with an ERA of 2.47. This maybe the year
Bucholz can mature into the player the Red Sox think he can be.

I can’t forget Jonathan Papelbon. Pap looked like Rick Vaughn in Major League II, he would reach back for his fastball and it just wasn’t there. Since an implosion in New York on May 17, where he allowed two home runs (one to A. Rod and one to Marcus Thames) in a blown save allowing the Yankees the walk off win, Pap has been on his game and throwing his splitfinger with more confidence.

Tampa Bay Rays (42-27):
Joe Maddon is a great manager. The Rays are young and can hit and pitch.
These two statements sum up why the rest of the American League fears Tampa Bay. After a World Series apprearance in 2008, the Rays have shown the rest of baseball that they are a legitimate contender. The doormat of the American League East for so many years can finally punch back.

The starting rotation is one of the best in the majors and they are all under 30 years old. James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis are top ten in the majors in ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. Price and Garza have announced their presence and made a name for themselves by finally starting to mature into the players the Rays think they can and will be for the organization. All of these young pitchers can cruise and start mowing down hitters when they have their best stuff.

Evan Longoria started off the year raking. He is just hitting consistantly, after a five home run April, a five home run May, he is on pace for…a five home run June. In my opinion, depending on his second half, Longoria could be the AL MVP. Carlos Pena has started to heat up after a slow start and has slammed seven home runs in the month of June.The Rays have it all; speed, defense and hitting and when they put it all together they are a very dangerous team. If they can find a way back to the way they were playing at the start of the season, the American League is in trouble.

So who wins the American League East? Who wins the AL Wild Card?

AL EAST CHAMPIONS: New York Yankees
It is tough to go against the experience and talent that the New York Yankees put on the field day in and day out. The Yankees are getting older so they could possibly see a decrease in productivity into late August and October. I think they will win the AL East outright.

AL WILD CARD: Boston Red Sox
The Sox are starting to hit their stride and will get back a healthy Josh Beckett and Jacoby Ellsbury around the All-Star Break. The Sox are starting to build some momentum after falling behind 7.5 games in May.

R. Kyle Michael

Waiver Wire: June 25 Edition

Be Sure and Give These Guys a Chance

Get ‘em in Your Lineup

Tyler Colvin is finally getting some playing time these days as Kosuke Fukudome has been benched. Colvin should see ample playing time the remainder of the season and will likely end around .275 and around 20 HR. If you are lacking OF depth, take a look at Colvin who should be a decent option the rest of the year.

Jason Castro was the 10th overall pick in the 2008 MLB Draft, so he has good potential to be a good option at a thin position. Although Castro did not set the world on fire at AAA this season (.265, 4 HR), he had a very impressive 2009 by hitting .300 with 10 HR. Castro should be a nice MLB player and has the potential to help your team out at a typically tough position to fill.

Carlos Santana has emerged as one of top catching prospects in fantasy baseball and should be on a roster by now. If he is not, consider yourself lucky and scoop him up, especially if you are not strong at the catching position. Santana is only owned in 20% of Hotbox leagues and should be starting for any team that do not have Mauer, Martinez, and McCann.

Aubrey Huff is owned in 56% of Hotbox leagues but only starting in 12%. He has been on a tear lately, hitting .350 in the last two weeks, with five bombs and 12 RBI. Huff is 1B and OF eligible and is capable of having random awesome seasons (see BAL 2008), and as long as he is this hot you should pick him up.

Buster Posey is another solid catching option these days that might be available in your league. He was a hot pick up a few weeks ago when he finally got called up, but make sure to pick him up if he is available. He is hitting .303, with one HR, seven RBI, and nine runs on the season.

R.A. Dickey is 6-0 for the red hot Mets and is more than likely available in your league. The knuckleball journeyman has a 2.33 ERA, with 35 K and only 14 BB in over 46 IP this season and will have some more than favorable starts against the lowly NL.

Pick ‘em Up But Keep ‘em On Your Bench

Mike Stanton looks exactly like Miguel Cabrera did when he was called up as a 20-year-old Marlins prospect, but do not expect similar rookie numbers. Cabrera hit .268, with 12 HR, and 62 RBI in 2003 while Stanton is only hitting .218 with one career HR. Stanton has the potential to be one of the best power hitters in all of baseball but it looks like you will have to be patient with the young hitter.

Michael Saunders now has five home runs and 17 RBI with only 89 AB on the season. He is only one HR away from tying Mike Sweeney for the team lead in HR and as long as Milton Bradley is hitting .207 look for Saunders get more opportunity in the second half of the season.

Matt Anaya
Twitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Future Cy Young?

How Good is Ubaldo?

How good has Ubaldo Jimenez been in 2010?

He’s been All-Star good. He’s been Cy Young good. He’s been historically good.

His current stat line reads 13-1, 1.15 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 14 starts and 101.1 innings pitched.

To put some of those numbers in perspective, nobody has finished with an ERA of 1.15 or lower since Bob Gibson had an ERA of 1.12 in 1968. Gibson is the only pitcher in the live ball era (1920-present) with an ERA below 1.50. The next lowest mark in the modern era was Dwight Gooden’s 1.53 in 1985.

Assuming Ubaldo makes 32 starts, he is on pace to win 30 games, something that is unheard of with today’s five man rotation and pitch count limits. The last player to win 30 games was Denny Mclain in 1968, and he had 41 starts that year.

Winning percentage wise, a 30-2 record would equate to a .9375 winning percentage which would be second all-time behind Roy Face, who went 18-1 as a relief pitcher in 1959. Johnny Allen had a .9375 winning percentage in 1937 as both a starter and a reliever. Should Jimenez end up 30-2, he would have the highest winning percentage of pitchers making 30+ starts, eclipsing the mark set by Randy Johnson (who went 18-2 in 1995).

With numbers like these, Jimenez would be putting up arguably the best season of any pitcher in the live ball era. Needless to say, that would make him a shoe-in for the Cy Young award despite the great seasons put together by Josh Johnson and Jaime Garcia among others.

But the question that everyone is asking is whether or not Jimenez can keep it up for 18 more starts. The likely answer: No. The underlying stats (.239 BABIP, 91.2% strand rate) suggest that Jimenez has been lucky so far.

But doesn’t it seem like every pitcher needs a bit of luck. When Gibson posted his 1.12 ERA in 1968 his BABIP was just .240 that year. Nobody seems to mention that as being luck. While Gibson was undoubtedly lucky, I am a firm believer in two things.

1. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
2. The great ones can make their own luck

In Gibson’s career, his BABIP was .278, but nobody is going to argue that he wasn’t among the greatest pitchers of all time.

More recently, guys like Greg Maddux (.289), John Smoltz (.293) and Tom Glavine (.286) ended their careers (although Smoltz hasn’t officially retired). I grew up watching the Braves Big Three pitch on a regular basis, and I don’t believe that they all were so dominant because they were lucky.

In the end, Jiminez BABIP is probably unsustainable. His updated ZiPS projection for 2010 is a 2.57 ERA and a 22-8 record in 33 starts. Those numbers might still win him a Cy Young.

Someone once said, “Luck has a peculiar habit of favoring those who don’t depend on it.” Jimenez has the arsenal to be a great pitcher with or without luck.

For fans of the game, seeing a historic season like this unfold would be a once in a lifetime experience. Something we may never see again if it doesn’t happen this year. Maybe we just need a little luck.

Brett Kettyle
Twitter

MLB Power Rankings June 21st Edition

MLB Power Rankings Are Here!

1. New York Yankees (43-26) – In four June starts, Javier Vazquez has gone exactly seven innings in each while posting a 2.25 ERA; his strikeout ratios are also starting to fall in line with his career norms

2. Boston Red Sox (43-28) – Boston has won six in a row and is only the third hottest team in the AL; after a rough May, Dustin Pedroia is hitting .359 in June

3. Atlanta Braves (42-28) – The Braves have the best home record in baseball and won interleague series over the Rays and Twins; Troy Glaus has a .318/12/46 line since the beginning of May

4. Tampa Bay Rays (42-27) – The Rays have fallen out of first place while winning just three of their past 10; Matt Garza and James Shields have come back to earth after hot starts

5. Texas Rangers (41-28) – Winners of eight in a row, the Rangers have jumped out to a nice lead in the AL West; Josh Hamilton is hitting .474 with seven homeruns in June

6. Minnesota Twins (40-29) – Hot streaks from Detroit and Chicago have caused the Twins lead to shrink, and Minnesota may need more pitching to hold onto the division lead

7. San Diego Padres (40-29) – San Diego has allowed the fewest runs in baseball thanks to surprise performances by the majority of the starting rotation (Garland, Richard, Latos and LeBlanc)

8. New York Mets (39-30) – The Mets recently came off an eight game winning streak and are getting great performances from R.A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi

9. Detroit Tigers (38-30) – While winning eight of their last 10 the Tigers have crawled back within two games of Minnesota; Miguel Cabrera leads the Majors in both homeruns and RBI

10. San Francisco Giants (38-30) – Like San Diego, the Giants are getting by on great pitching and a less than stellar offense; Matt Cain has a 1.65 ERA since the beginning of May

11. St. Louis Cardinals (38-31) – The Cardinals are back in front of the NL Central, and have the best pitching staff outside the NL West

12. Los Angeles Dodgers (39-31) – Despite a recent cold string, the Dodgers are still close to the Padres; Andre Ethier is hitting just .205 since returning from the DL

13. Toronto Blue Jays (38-32) – It stinks to be a Blue Jay; they have a pretty good baseball team yet have basically no shot of passing over the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to get into the playoffs

14. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (39-33) – Despite the loss of Kendry Morales the Angels are scoring plenty of runs; if the pitching could hold up its end of the bargain the Halos might be leading the division

15. Colorado Rockies (36-33) – Ubaldo Jiminez just won’t stop. Through 14 starts he is 13-1 with a 1.15 ERA and is leading the Majors in both of those categories

16. Cincinnati Reds (37-33) – The Reds have cooled off (just 3-7 in their past 10) and Mike Leake has come down to earth while allowing 10 runs over his past two starts.

17. Philadelphia Phillies (35-32) – How the mighty have fallen-despite being the heavy favorite to return to the World Series, the Phillies are now 5.5 games out of the division lead and have just one hitter batting over .300

18. Chicago White Sox (34-34) – My preseason pick to win the Central is showing signs of life by winning six in a row and nine out of 10; Paul Konerko is hitting .390 in June

19. Florida Marlins (33-36) – Despite the impressive year from Josh Johnson (8-2, 1.80 ERA) the Marlins are falling out of contention in the NL East

20. Oakland Athletics (34-37) – As some early season surprises in the pitching staff fall back to earth, the A’s offensive deficiencies are starting to show through

21. Chicago Cubs (31-38) – The Cubs offensive struggles can be summed up by pitcher Ted Lilly, who is 2-6 despite a 3.42 ERA

22. Washington Nationals (31-39) – The Nats are five games further out than they were when Stephen Strasburg debuted, so you can pretty much forget any chance of them making a run late in 2010

23. Milwaukee Brewers (29-40) – Despite having one of the better offenses in the league, the Brewers are far away from contention because their pitching rotation consists almost solely of Yovani Gallardo

24. Kansas City Royals (29-41) – Tough luck or not, Zack Greinke (3.94 ERA) hasn’t been anywhere near as good as he was during his 2009 Cy Young campaign

25. Seattle Mariners (28-41) – Ichiro has been great (.336 BA, 20 SB) but the rest of the Mariners offense has failed to support a pretty good starting rotation

26. Arizona Diamondbacks (27-43) – Aaron Heilman and Ian Kennedy have been the lone bright spots on the only pitching staff that has allowed more than 400 runs to score in 2010

27. Cleveland Indians (26-42) – Highly rated prospect Carlos Santana has lived up to the hype so far with a .393/2/8 line; unfortunately, the Indians have nobody else hitting over .300

28. Houston Astros (26-44) – Jeff Keppinger leads the team in batting average (.284) and the already mediocre pitching staff could get a lot worse if Roy Oswalt and Brett Myers are traded away before the end of July

29. Pittsburgh Pirates (25-44) – It took a while but the Pirates are finally back in last place in the NL Central; at least we should be getting a Pedro Alvarez sighting soon

30. Baltimore Orioles (19-50) – The Orioles are easily the worst team in baseball right now, but unfortunately there won’t be a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper waiting at the top of next year’s draft

Brett Kettyle
Twitter

5 Reasons Not To Believe The Strasburg Hype

Strasburg Aint That Good …

Stephen Strasberg is the new Baby Jesus. It’s the name you use for the player too good to be described. The savior. All you have to do is watch ESPN and they’ll tell you. Over, and over, and over. His every start has been covered, with every pitch being scrutinized. Everyone with an opinion has an opinion on Strasberg, and every one of them has put him in a category all by himself. He’s the next all-star, next Cy Young winner, next no brainer hall of famer, and a guy who will go down in the discussion of the greatest pitchers of any generation. Right?

To his credit, in his two starts so far, he has been impressive. However, as is always the case with phenoms, we must temper excitement as we have seen them come and often go. I’ll give you 5 reasons why this may be the case with Strasburg.

5. Forget the Minors – We all want to pay attention to the way Strasberg embarrassed minor league hitters, and yes, it’s impressive but they are minor league players. If they were better hitters they would be up in the bigs. Sure he looked impressive but baseball history is littered with guys who looked impressive in the farm system and couldn’t get it together. White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham ripped through the minors and hasn’t been able to buy a hit this season. This is the way these things go. Two starts don’t make for a good assessment of a players potential which brings me to my next point…

4. He’s Only Had Two Starts – The two monster opponents he has faced at the big league level are the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians. These are two teams who seem to have the hardest time getting it together. Their rosters have a lot of guys who resemble minor league hitters. He looked impressive and I don’t want to take anything away from him but the competition wasn’t quite challenging. Two starts don’t define a career and it’ll be interesting to see how he does when these teams get a look at him again, which brings me to my next point….

3. Give the Hitters A Little Credit – We know the old adage that good pitching beats good hitting. I’m sure that it does but let’s realize that these players didn’t get to the big leagues because they were lucky. They get to where they are because they have a great ability to make adjustments. Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, and Adrian Gonzalez should be able to figure him out. Let’s see what he does after he’s been through the league a few times. And then there’s my next point….

2. The Season is A Grind – A baseball season is the most mentally taxing season in pro sports. There is nothing else like playing six days a week for 6 months. Not only will it tire you mentally but it will tire you physically. It will be easy for Strasberg to feast on these hitters right now, but what happens come September when he’s been playing for six months and these hitters have seen him a few times? I’m not saying he’ll fail miserably, he might even do well but what I do know is that it will be a better indication of the type of pitcher he is. He looks great but anything can happen, which brings me to my final point….

1. Gooden, Prior, and Wood – All these guys were the next can’t miss. Prior, like Strasberg, was praised for his flawless mechanics. Gooden looked as good as humanly possible when he came up with the Mets and most of us remember Woods legendary 20 strikeout performance. They all looked good. Maybe not Strasberg good(except for Gooden) but they all ended up never living up to the hype. Gooden’s career went ok. Prior isn’t even pitching and Wood is no longer a starter. The point is the Strasberg might be great, but it takes a lot of years to build a career and we need to watch and wait. Let’s not crown him as anything yet. He’s still just a rookie.

Mike Cahill

5 Reasons to Fire Kenny Williams

The White Sox Stink and it’s Kenny Williams’ Fault

It appears the general is losing the grip on his army. White Sox GM Kenny Williams gets further and further from being the genius that constructed the White Sox 2005 World Series winner.

My take: Williams was never the architect everyone thought he was. He was a guy who made a couple of good moves then caught lightning in a bottle. I won’t say this isn’t the case with many other GM’s but I will say I doubt Kenny knew it was a World Series team when he constructed them.

Still we must pay the man his due. He has a ring when many of his contemporaries do not. But White Sox fan will not live in the past and unfortunately, neither can Kenny Williams. What we’ve seen in the 2010 season is a GM who has become more surly and obnoxious than we’ve ever seen. Williams loves a good fight and never shy’s away from someone who has something to say. But now we see Williams carefully picking who he talks to and giving brief concise answers to media member such as Sun-Times beat reporter Joe Cowley.

It would seem that Williams needs to vacate his position and I’ll give you 5 reasons.

5. He No Longer Has An Appropriate Relationship With The Media – I know this doesn’t seem like it should matter and if he were the GM of Kansas City it wouldn’t. But this is a major market with a major media presence and he can’t seem to be a big boy and handle it. The tough attitude that Williams seems to need from his players, this “Grinder” mentality doesn’t seem to extend into his office as he carefully picks and chooses who he talks to and when. Williams should know that the more you hide from the press the more they come after you. Williams needs to get tough or get out.

4. He Has Never Made Great Trades – Sure getting Podsednik in 2005 turned out to be brilliant but getting an over the hill Robbie Alomar twice and getting a far past his point of usefulness in Ken Griffey Jr. was a stupid move as well. Williams loves to get guys who were once great or that no one else seems to want. Swisher, Cabrera, Ritchie, Teahan, Alomar, Griffey, Wells, and the list goes on. He has made some good moves but too often he has made terrible moves.

3. He Lied About Pitching and Defense – It would certainly seem that way. For a guy who wants pitching and defense to be the focus he hasn’t quite done his job. He brought 10 time gold glover Andruw Jones to be a…DH? Keeping awful Juan Pierre and Carlos Quentin out there to be his everyday outfielders. He brings in Teahan who is average at 3rd base at best and then moves Beckham, who seemed to be getting better, to second. And he’s made Alexei Ramirez his shortstop when his defense is an inconsistent mess.

2. He Seems to Lack an Organizational Philosophy – It’s in Williams court to decide the kind of baseball organization they want to be. But they don’t seem to know. Half the time they seem to want to be a Twins Organization where they build up and other times they want to play with the big boys and be buyers every year. But the White Sox won’t throw big money at anyone. They won’t even consider it. And then they sell off young pieces for talent that is often suspect. And then of course they waste draft picks on Ken Williams Jr. who wasn’t projected to be any good coming out of college but somehow managed a pick in the first 10 rounds. Go figure.

1. It’s either Him or Ozzie and It’s Not Ozzie – Ozzie is the reason people pay attention to your ballclub and he’s not the reason they are failing. Not entirely anyway. His want to play more small ball seems to have backfired a bit but it’s not an offense to be fired over. He speaks to much but people listen too much for him to be canned. The problem with the White Sox this season is there are bad pieces to the puzzle. Williams assembled the pieces, no matter what Ozzie wanted, to a puzzle that isn’t working and hasn’t worked in a few years. It’s time for Williams to pack his bags and head out of the Windy City.

Mike Cahill

A Look back at the 2006 Free Agent Class

2006: The Year of Bad Money

Hindsight is 20/20.

Most of the time, we look back in time at a free agent class and see that there was an even mix of overvalued and undervalued players to go along with those who earned their pay.
The off-season following the 2006 MLB season was not one of those instances.

An alarming number of bad decisions were made, and to show just how bad teams spent their money, I have compiled a team (25 man roster with 13 hitters and 12 pitchers) of players who were signed for too much money.

The only basic guideline for the team was that a player needed to average at least $5,000,000 per year to make the team (because if the team only spent a million or two it wouldn’t be a huge loss if the player didn’t perform).

Catcher: Mike Piazza – 1 year, $8.5 million with the Oakland Athletics
Although Piazza primarily played DH for the A’s, he will make this team’s starting lineup as the catcher. While his overall numbers (.275/8/44 in 309 at-bats) weren’t terrible, half a season of mediocre production isn’t worth 8.5 million.

First Base: Nomar Garciaparra – 2 years, $18.5 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers
After a solid 2006 campaign, the Dodgers resigned Garciaparra in free agency. Over his final two years with the Dodgers, Nomar produced a .278/15/87 line in 587 at-bats. The Dodgers essentially got one mediocre season of production while paying for two good years.

Second Base: Ray Durham – 2 years, $14 million with the San Francisco Giants
Durham was a solid contributor for four years on the Giants, which led to them giving him a new contract entering the 2007 season. But following a .2006 season in which he hit a career high 26 homers, Durham struggled under his new contract. Between the two years (which also included a trade to the Brewers) Durham hit just .249 with 17 homeruns in 834 at-bats.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez – 5 years, $75 million with the Chicago Cubs
Coming off a pair of great seasons with the Cubs, Chicago offered Ramirez a long term deal when he became a free agent. Although he held up his end of the bargain in 2007 and 2008, things quickly came unraveled after that. His 2009 campaign was solid, but he missed half of the season due to injury. 2010 has been horrendous. Although Ramirez has now landed on the DL, Ramirez was hitting .168 with just five homers through 179 at-bats. Ramirez has a player option for $14.66 million in the 2011 season and a mutual $16 million option in 2012 (with a $2 million buyout). While Ramirez’s best days look behind him, the Cubs will likely still be on the hook for $16 million dollars.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo – 4 years, $36 million with the Boston Red Sox
Looking fix the hole at shortstop they had after Edgar Renteria didn’t work out well, Boston signed Julio Lugo to a long term deal. In two and a half years with Boston, Lugo hit just .251, and was eventually traded to St. Louis. Now with Baltimore (and in the last year of this contract), Lugo is still struggling, hitting just .206 in 97 at-bats this year.

Outfield: Alfonso Soriano – 8 years, $136 million with the Chicago Cubs
Coming off his 40/40 season with the Washington Nationals, Soriano got a huge payoff from the Chicago Cubs. In 3+ years with Chicago so far, he has hit .276 with 92 homeruns. Although these numbers aren’t bad, he hasn’t been the dynamic player the Cubs thought they were getting. Soriano’s speed is gone and his power is declining. The worst part for the Cubs is that Soriano still has four years left on his deal.

Outfield: Gary Matthews Jr. – 5 years, $50 million with the Los Angeles Angels
Coming off the only good season of his career, the Angels decided to give Matthews a huge contract despite already having plenty of options in the outfield. In three seasons with the Angels, he hit .248 with 30 homers and saw his at-bats decrease each year. Traded to the Mets this off-season, Matthews continues to struggle (he is hitting just .190 this year) but has made a ton of money off his career year.

Outfield: Juan Pierre – 5 years, $44 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers
On the surface it looks like Pierre performed pretty well in his time with the Dodgers. A .294 batting average and 134 stolen bases are good numbers, but with his lack of power Pierre produced a WAR of just 1.4 over three seasons in LA. This signing is bad because the Dodgers ultimately ended up with too many outfielders (and benched Pierre) and he didn’t add very much to the team. In fact, Pierre’s best value to LA may have been when he was traded to the White Sox for a pair of players including John Ely, who already has produced 1.4 WAR in less than half a season with the Dodgers.

DH: Frank Thomas – 2 years, $18.12 million with the Toronto Blue Jays
Thomas is a contract that lasted a year too long. Thomas was solid (but not as good as his days in Chicago) in 2007 with the Blue Jays. He hit .277 and smacked 26 homers, giving the team a nice offensive boost. 2008 was a different story however, as Thomas struggled with Toronto (hitting just .167 in 60 at-bats) before getting shipped to Oakland (where he also struggled, hitting just .263 with little power). For a team like Toronto that didn’t compete even when Thomas was doing well, this wasn’t a good signing.

Bench: Jim Edmonds – 2 years, $19 million with the St. Louis Cardinals
Coming off a less than stellar 2006, it was surprising the Cardinals offered this much money to resign Edmonds. He struggled in 2007, hitting just .252 with 12 homers in limited playing time. Traded to the Padres in the off-season, the most Edmonds was to the Cards (following the signing of his new contract) was bringing in David Freese, who has played well so far in his rookie season. Edmonds was released by the Padres before finishing the 2008 season, and did alright (he rediscovered his power stroke) after signing with the Cubs (for a much smaller deal).

Bench: Dave Roberts – 3 years, $18 million with the San Francisco Giants
Coming off two good years with the Padres, Roberts got a pretty good payday from the Giants. In two seasons before he was released, Roberts hit just .252, stole 36 bases and lost playing time due to his struggles. He produced a WAR of -0.1 in with the Giants, and was a complete waste of money.

Bench: Shea Hillenbrand: 1 year, $6.5 million with the Los Angeles Angels
While there were a lot bigger contracts given out, few players could perform worse than Hillenbrand did in 2007. His average was a poor .251, his OBP was a terrible .270 and his slugging percentage was an atrocious .330. Between the Angels and Dodgers (that’s right, he didn’t even last with the Angels for the whole year) Hillenbrand combined for -1.7 WAR.

Bench: Carlos Lee – 6 years, $100 million with the Houston Astros
Like Aramis Ramirez and Frank Thomas, this is a case of a team giving too long of a contract to a player. Lee’s first three years in Houston were phenomenal. He hit .305 and averaged just under 30 homers a year. The reason Lee makes this list is that he has three years left on his contract. So far in 2010, Lee is hitting .220 and slugging just .384. If Lee finishes with those numbers, they will easily be the worst of his career. While it’s possible Lee’s performance so far has just been a fluke, it’s also possible that Lee is rapidly declining, which would leave the Astros with huge money to pay for little production over the next two years. Because Lee could turn this around (and work his way off the list) he only makes the bench.

Pitcher: Jason Schmidt – 3 years, $47 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers
In his time with the Giants, Schmidt was among the best pitchers and baseball, and got a huge payday from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Schmidt started 2007 out terribly, and quickly wound up on the DL. He missed all of 2008, and made a total of 10 starts over the three years of this contract (that’s Carl Pavano territory). All in all, the Dodgers got three total wins and a 6.02 ERA back on their huge investment.

Pitcher: Jeff Suppan – 4 years, $42 million with the Milwaukee Brewers
The worst part about this contract was that Suppan was never a good pitcher. Before signing with the Brewers, he had a career ERA of 4.60. He managed to be worse than that with Milwaukee however, posting a 5.08 ERA in 3+ seasons there before getting released about a week ago. His first year in Milwaukee was his best, when he went 12-12 with a 4.62 ERA. Even if performed at that rate over the life of his contract, he wasn’t worth 10+ million a year.

Pitcher: Barry Zito – 7 years, $126 million with the San Francisco Giants
Plenty of pitchers on this list have worse overall stats than Zito, but he is here because of the gigantic payout that he is getting. When signed to the largest pitching Contract in history, it would be fair to expect Zito to be a regular competitor for the Cy Young award. Instead, through 3+ years in San Francisco, Zito has posted an extremely mediocre 4.37 ERA and failed to wow people like he did in Oakland. Zito may finally be figuring things out again, as he has a 3.10 ERA thus far in 2010. However, a low BABIP and 4.69 xFIP show that Zito is getting lucky, and is still the average pitcher the Giants signed for huge money.

Pitcher: Gil Meche – 5 years, $55 million with the Kansas City Royals
Like Suppan, Meche was never a good pitcher, with a career 4.65 ERA before coming to the Royals. In Kansas City, he actually has been better than that, with a 4.32 ERA thanks two solid performances in his first two seasons with the club. Things have fell off lately for Meche though. He missed part of the 2009 season, and wasn’t very good (5.09 ERA) when he was pitching. Through nine starts this season, he has a 6.66 ERA. And he still has another year left on his contract, which should make Royals fans happy.

Pitcher: Daisuke Matsuzaka – 6 years, $52 million with the Boston Red Sox
This deal essentially was 6 years, $103.11 million with the Boston Red Sox, since their massive negotiating fee wasn’t included in the actual contract. That averages out to Barry Zito type money, and Dice-K has been equally unimpressive. His career ERA of 4.06 is mediocre, and he hasn’t stayed healthy the majority of his time in Boston. Over the past two seasons, he has a 5.23 ERA in 20 starts. All in all it doesn’t matter, because the Red Sox will just dip into their deep pockets and find other high priced free agents to pick up the slack (i.e. John Lackey).

Pitcher: Mark Mulder – 2 years, 13 million with the St. Louis Cardinals
Mulder was terrible with the Cardinals in 2007, so I’m not really sure why the Cardinals decided to resign him in free agency. For 13 million, the Cardinals got four starts (and two relief appearances) from Mulder in which he gave up 17 earned runs in just 12.2 innings. Also, Mulder produced a WAR of -1.2 in two seasons, which is difficult to do in so few innings pitched.

Pitcher: Adam Eaton – 3 years, $24.5 million with the Philadelphia Phillies
Coming off a season in which he posted a 5.12 ERA in thirteen starts, I’m not really sure what the Phillies were thinking. In two seasons with the Phils, Eaton had a 6.10 ERA in 49 starts before getting released. Eaton came back in 2009 with the Baltimore Orioles and again got released. It’s one thing to get released by a good team like the Phillies, but when you are so bad the Orioles release you, you don’t deserve to play in the majors (or make close to 25 million).

Pitcher: Vincente Padilla – 3 years, $33.75 million with the Texas Rangers
After a mediocre (4.50 ERA) season in 2006, the Rangers resigned Padilla after he became a free agent. After producing a 5.09 ERA in two and a half seasons with the Rangers, Padilla was released. This is another case of a decision that was questionable before the signing (Padilla had a career ERA above 4 coming into 2007) and ended up even worse than expected.

Pitcher: Jeff Weaver – 1 year, $8.325 million with the Seattle Mariners
Coming off one of the worst seasons of his rather unspectacular career, I’m not sure why the Mariners decided to commit this much money to Weaver. Although they smartly signed him to only a one year deal, 8+ million was still too much for a guy with a career 4.58 ERA at the time. In his one season with Seattle, Weaver made 27 starts, but had a terrible 6.20 ERA and -1.1 WAR.

Pitcher: Jason Marquis – 3 years, $21 million with the Chicago Cubs
Marquis is actually one of the better pitcher on this list, but it was a bad signing for the Cubs because his only notable season under this contract came with the Colorado Rockies in 2009 (4.04 ERA, 3.1 WAR). Marquis posted a 4.57 ERA in his two seasons with the Cubs, and averaged just 1 WAR over those years.

Pitcher: Miguel Batista – 3 years, $25 million with the Seattle Mariners
Batista’s first season in Seattle was respectable (11-8, 4.29 ERA) although it probably didn’t live up to this contract. In his second year, Batista was terrible, going 4-14 with a 6.26 ERA. This prompted the Mariners to put him in the bullpen in 2009, where he had a respectable 4.04 ERA but added no value to the team because of his role. All in all, Batista had a 4.84 ERA and 0.3 WAR in three seasons with the Mariners.

Pitcher: Danys Baez – 3 years, $19 million with the Baltimore Orioles
The only relief pitcher to make the list, Baez was a complete waste of money for the Orioles. As a Braves fan, I had the pleasure of watch Baez stink the second half of the 2006 season, and couldn’t believe that any team would offer him a big contract in free agency. Sure, Baez was a great closer in 2005, but he seemed like a completely different pitcher in 2006. His 2007 season was horrible (6.44 ERA) and he missed the entire 2008 season due to injury. While he was respectable (4.02 ERA) in 2009, Baez ended up with a 0.1 WAR while making over 6 million a year with Baltimore.

Bonus: Roger Clemens – 1 year, $28 million (for a full year, he actually made $18.5 million since he didn’t pitch the entire season) with the New York Yankees
Clemens wasn’t signed in the off-season, but ended up with a huge free agent contract. The Yankees actually sunk even more money into this deal, as it forced them to pay an additional $7.4 million in luxury tax. You can break down the insanity of this deal many different ways. Clemens made a little over $1 million per start or $3 million per win. He ended up with a 4.18 ERA and just 1.0 WAR, in return for almost $26 million of investment by the Yankees. Including the luxury tax, Clemens provided about the save return (on a per win basis) as Carl Pavano.

Brett Kettyle
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