AL Cy Young Race: Why C.C Won’t Win

This year’s debate over who deserves the AL Cy Young crown is interesting in that it has created quite a stir over how we evaluate Starting Pitchers. If you’re not up-to-date, read on and we’ll break things down. We’re going to make comparisons easier by eliminating some candidates from the start including Jon Lester (ERA a bit too high), Francisco Liriano (same), Clay Buchholz (not enough innings) and Trevor Cahill (only 102 K’s). That boils us down to the three candidates everyone is talking about:

CC Sabathia, NYY: 19-6, 31 GS, 217 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 179 K’s, 68 BB’s
David Price, TAM: 17-6, 28 GS, 186.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 167 K’s, 73 BB’s
Felix Hernandez, SEA: 11-11, 31 GS, 225.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 214 K’s, 63 BB’s

For the sake of simplifying the argument that is about to follow, let’s make this a two-man race and eliminate Price. His numbers are similar to CC’s, but CC seems to have the slight upper hand.

So there we have it. CC Sabathia of the 88-58 Yankees vs. Felix Hernandez of the 55-91 Mariners. What this comes down to is a debate between the statistically-minded Bill James disciples and the old-school “he knows how to win mentality” most often championed by Hall-of-Famer and ESPN announcer Joe Morgan.

I’ll begin by telling you I am loyal to The King. Which is to say, I believe “King Felix” Hernandez is the Pitcher most worthy of the 2010 AL Cy Young award, and here’s why:

Based solely on stats, there’s really no question that King Felix has the clear advantage. More strikeouts, fewer walks, a lower WHIP, far lower ERA, etc. The true debate exists over the importance of a pitcher’s win-loss record. CC’s record of 19-6 is staggeringly better than Felix’s 11-11. Felix has the better stat line, but CC has the better record. How can that be? Simple. CC pitches for the better team. This is a prime example of a win-loss record’s inability to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher. Surely everyone can see that, regardless of record, this year Felix Hernandez is the better of the two pitchers, right? RIGHT? Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Joe Morgan (from a recent ESPN chat):

“What Sabathia has done is be the best pitcher in the AL from opening day to this point. I don’t buy into the point that if Felix is pitching for someone else he’d have more wins…The name of the game is to win and he [Sabathia]‘s won…It’s amazing to me that we have let computers define him [Felix] rather than performance. His job is to win the game, not just pitch 5-6 innings. I don’t think there should be a debate between Felix and Sabathia.”

A-ha! CC knows how to win and King Felix does not. Not a new argument for Morgan–this is a guy who’s gone so far as to say that the ONLY stat that matters in measuring a pitcher is Wins. What’s baffling is how Morgan has come to this conclusion. He says Felix would not win on another team because, as he seems to believe, Felix only gives 5 to 6 innings a game, while implying CC goes out and competes longer. An interesting point, but one that has no factual evidence to support it. Let’s look at those stats again, shall we?

CC Sabathia, NYY: 19-6, 31 GS, 217 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 179 K’s, 68 BB’s
Felix Hernandez, SEA: 11-11, 31 GS, 225.2 IP, 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 214 K’s, 63 BB’s

See where you went wrong, Joe? Same amount of starts, yet it is Felix who has more innings, not CC. Let’s dive in even further. Felix has 5 Complete Games to CC’s 2. He has failed to reach the sixth inning in just two starts all season, while CC has done that three times. Felix averages a bit under 7.1 innings a start. CC? A tad over 6.2. Felix even leads the league in Quality Starts (defined as a start in which a pitcher goes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs) with 27, whereas CC is in second with 24.

Any way you slice it, King Felix is giving more innings than his counterpart. So what is Sabathia doing that gets him more runs? He’s certainly not doing it with his own bat, this is the American League we’re talking about. Is he delivering a rousing pep talk before each game, inspiring each player to fight harder than they’ve ever fought before? Doubtful. No, it’s clear. Sabathia simply profits from the offensive force that is the New York Yankees. An offense that scores more runs than any other club in the league. Felix, on the other hand, pitches for the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners who have hit only 91 HR’s and have a team OPS .100 points lower than the league average. The Mariners who often bat Jose Lopez in the clean-up spot. The Mariners who have scored fewer runs than any team in the majors (467–or– 307 less than the Yankees). The Yankees are the better team, plain and simple.

And as if you needed any more evidence to demonstrate how much Sabathia benefits from the offense around him, I offer you this shocking statistic: Thirty-four American League pitchers have tossed 160+ innings this season. Of them, CC Sabathia ranks fifth in run support, receiving an average of 7.18 runs a game. Felix Hernandez? He comes in dead last, getting an average of 3.95 runs in support per game.

So sorry Team CC, I’m just not buying it. You put Felix Hernandez on the Yankees or Rays or Twins and he gets more wins, easy. It’s not some wacky computer formula that brought us to that conclusion, as Morgan will have you believe. It’s statistics paired with simple reasoning. The Cy Young is supposed to be given to the best pitcher in the league, and when you compare King Felix to the field, he’s undoubtedly the best. But when it’s all said and done the voters will likely pick Sabathia. Because he’s the better pitcher? No. Because he signed with the better team. And the average voter, like Joe Morgan, loves a good winner.

September 17, 2010 – Evan Hill This year’s debate over who deserves the AL Cy Young crown is interesting in that it has created quite a stir over how we evaluate Starting Pitchers. If you’re not up-to-date, read on and we’ll break things down. We’re going to make comparisons easier by eliminating some candidates from [...]