The Division Races Heat Up!

September 1, 2010 – Brett Kettyle

The calendar just turned to September meaning the Major League Baseball season is officially entering its final stretch.
Some teams have all but clinched their postseason ticket already, and need to just avoid a monumental collapse (a la the Mets in 2007 and 2008). Teams such as the Yankees, Rays, Rangers and Reds are near locks for the postseason.

Heading into the season’s final month (maybe not technically, since most teams don’t finish up until October 3rd) here are some things to look for as teams try to get one of the eight post season spots.

American League

At this point, it seems that three of the four AL playoff spots have been filled.
In the East, the Yankees have a 1 game lead over the Rays and the best record in baseball. The Rays are 7 games up on the Boston Red Sox for the Wild Card. Although the division is still not locked down, both the Yankees and Rays are almost assured of playing into October. That being said, I do expect the two teams to battle down to the wire in order to lock up home field advantage throughout the ALCS.

Like the East, the AL West is also seemingly already locked up. The Rangers have the largest division lead of any team in baseball, sitting 8.5 games ahead of the Oakland Athletics. Despite their deadline acquisition of Dan Haren, the Angels have fallen further out of the race, and sit 10.5 games off the pace.

At this point, it looks like the only AL playoff spot that could go down to the wire will come from the Central division. The White Sox currently trail the Twins by 4 games and will have to work hard to overcome the deficit in the last month. The Twins recently made another bullpen addition (Brian Fuentes) and the White Sox added aging slugger Manny Ramirez to their club to DH.

The two clubs play just three game over the remainder of the season (in Chicago) so the White Sox will have to at least make up some of the ground against their other opponents.

Playoff Predictions:

AL East: New York Yankees – Their offense is seemingly unstoppable (they lead the majors in runs scored with 54 more than the Cincinnati Reds) and have a solid pitching staff. With Andy Pettitte and Alex Rodriguez set to return in the near future, the Yankees will get even stronger by the time September ends.

AL Central: Minnesota Twins – Although their lead is hardly insurmountable, I think that the Twins just have a better team than the White Sox. If Justin Morneau can return this year, I think the Twins win the division easily. Since it looks like he might not, I have this division going down to the wire, but the Twins pulling it out in the end.

AL West: Texas Rangers – I don’t see a monumental collapse coming. Despite the struggles of Cliff Lee, the Rangers have maintained a huge lead in their division and I don’t see that changing. Nelson Cruz just returned from the DL to boost the lineup and Lee should soon be back to his old self, leaving the Rangers as runaway winners in the West.

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays have played great, but in the end I don’t think they have the offense to catch the Yankees. Aside from Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford there isn’t a single hitter in their lineup that scares me.

National League

Unlike the American League, the NL looks like it will have at least a couple exciting races down the stretch.
The Reds appear to be pulling away in the NL Central, where they now have a 7 game lead on the slumping St. Louis Cardinals. The addition of Aroldis Chapman will bring even more excitement to the team, which should be playing in October for the first time since 1995.

In the West San Diego has a somewhat comfortable five game lead, but if anyone can pull of an improbable comeback it is the Colorado Rockies, who currently sit in third place, 7 games back. The San Francisco Giants are actually in second (4 games back), although they have had to work through the struggles of Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito in the second half.

The NL East looks like it will be the tightest division race. The Atlanta Braves currently have a 3 game lead on the defending NL Champion Phillies. Both teams have dealt with a multitude of injuries this year and are getting healthy for the stretch run. The Phillies will get a boost when Ryan Howard returns, but the Braves were more active around the trade deadline (and in August) by acquiring Rick Ankiel and Derrek Lee.

As if things weren’t interesting enough, the two teams will play each other in the last three games of the season (in Atlanta) which could ultimately decide the division.

The NL Wild Card might be the most exciting race to watch in September, as four or five teams have a legitimate shot to win it. The Phillies are the current leaders and the Giants are just 1.5 games back. The Cardinals (4 games back), Rockies (4.5) and Dodgers (6.5) are still within striking distance, although they will have to leap multiple teams to get into the playoffs.

Playoff Predictions:

NL East: Atlanta Braves – The Braves are the only team in the National League in both the top 3 in runs scored and ERA. They have the best run differential in the NL and will get what could be a crucial series with the Phillies to end the year at home, where they have the best record in baseball.

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have a pretty comfortable division lead and are getting quality contributions from their young talent. While I’m not completely sold on the pitching staff, the Reds should have enough to win the division behind the bat of Triple Crown contender Joey Votto.

NL West: San Diego Padres – The additions of Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada finally have the Padres offense playing to a solid level, which is all they need with their terrific starting pitching. The Padres also might have the best bullpen in baseball, which could be a key factor in the playoffs.

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies – The Phils didn’t go out and get the Roy’s to spend October on the couch. With the team finally getting healthy (they have their entire starting lineup back for the first time in months it seems) I see them competing for the NL East crown but ultimately settling for the Wild Card.