5 New Hall of Fame Hopefuls

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America revealed the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot yesterday, and with it we learned the 19 candidates whose names will be appearing for the first time. At this slow stage in Baseball’s off-season, it’s always fun to have something to speculate over, so let’s take a look at who has a chance at the necessary 75% of the BBWAA’s votes.

Right off the bat we’re going to eliminate the Carlos Baerga’s and Charles Johnson’s on the list. They were good players, but a .245 Avg. over twelve seasons isn’t going to get it done, Charles, even if you are Fred McGriff’s cousin.

That whittles us all the way down to 5 candidates (sorry, Bobby Higginson) who appear to have a decent shot at an eventual election to the Hall (it should be noted that Juan Gonzalez and, more so, Rafael Palmeiro have the numbers to be there. However, if Mark McGwire is any example, the steroid speculation surrounding them will ruin any chance at election)

1. Jeff Bagwell

Though nobody on the list is a sure-fire first-ballot selection, the former Astro is as close as they come. With Bagwell we’re talking about a guy who was 1991′s Rookie-of-the-Year, and from ’93-’04 was consistently one of the best hitters in the league. In his MVP season he hit 39 HRs and 116 RBIs while scoring 104 Runs. That season? 1994–the strike year. That’s right, Bagwell put up those power numbers in just 110 Games. His career OPS was .948 while he added solid defense, earning himself a Gold Glove award in 1994.

Verdict: He’s in, this year or next.

2. Al Leiter

Leiter always struck me as a classy player who loved every second of his career. He pitched in three World Series, one of which his team won (’97 Marlins). Since retirement, Leiter has also offered insightful commentary in the announcer’s booth. However, none of this adds up to a HOF selection. 300 Wins will get you to Cooperstown, no doubt. Al has 162. Multiple Cy Young awards aught to do it as well. His closest finish was sixth place, in ’98. I always liked watching him play, but in the end, he just doesn’t deserve to make it.

Verdict: Sorry, Al.

3. Kevin Brown

Brown has a stronger resume than Leiter, his former Marlins teammate. 211 Wins, 3.28 career ERA, and six All-Star selections to go with his World Series title. Unfortunately, if you take a closer look at the resume, under “interests,” he clearly lists “‘roiding with my strong friends.”

If you use the “similarity score” feature at Baseball-Reference, you’ll find that Brown compares quite similarly to Hall-of-Famers Don Drysdale and Catfish Hunter. So, he’s got a shot, just not a great one.

Verdict: The steroids speculation hurts an already iffy chance, so we’ll say no, he doesn’t make it.

4. Larry Walker

Here we have the hardest decision on the list. When I think of Walker, I think of an elite player. Throughout his playing days he was always one of the best. His 383 HRs might be a little low, but his career On-Base-Percentage sits at a fantastic .400 and his OPS is actually higher than Bagwell’s at .965. Born in Canada, Walker used to shag fly balls in the darkness of a deep forest (can’t find a source, but it sounds true) and the training paid off in the result of seven Gold Gloves. He was the 1997 NL MVP with a slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .366/.452/.720, while putting up even better numbers in 1999.

What will likely hurt Walker is the feeling that his power numbers are inflated. Not by steroids–no, he always seemed to play the game right. Inflated instead by the amusement park that is Coors Field in it’s pre-humidor days. You needn’t look any further than Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette to realize Coors produced some souped up numbers, and in the end, the voters could hold that against him.

Verdict: He probably won’t make it in his first or second chance, but I think eventually Larry Walker will find himself the second Canadian elected into the Hall.

5. Tino Martinez

If all writers were Yankee fans–and it sometimes seems that way–Tino would be a lock for Cooperstown. Unfortunately for him, that’s not the case, and his numbers just don’t add up. I would imagine everyone thinks of Martinez as better than he actually was because, as a Yankee, he was in the playoffs every single year. And don’t get me wrong, he was certainly a solid player–he just doesn’t have the stats he needs to get a plaque in the Hall.

Verdict: Won’t make it.

______________________________________________________

Clearly, of the five, Bagwell is the only near-lock. Expect him to get over 75% and to join Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar, who both barely missed election in last year’s vote.

Check us out on twitter – @DugoutDoctors

Season in Review: San Diego Padres

Preseason Prediction: 5th in NL West

Regular Season Outcome: 2nd in NL West

Summary

When all was said and done they didn’t make the playoffs, and yet the San Diego Padres have to consider their 2010 campaign a victory. In 2009 the team finished in 4th place with a record of 75-87, and in the off-season they did little to improve their roster. Adding role players like Jerry Hairston Jr. is nice and all, but it’s not the kind of big move that makes you a contender. So it’s no wonder fans and the media were expecting the Padres to trade Adrian Gonzalez, their star hitter who would likely net them a nice bounty of prospects, or Heath Bell, a strong reliever who could do the same. And when they didn’t make those trades–well–it’s no wonder we all wrote them off. How was a team with a young inexperienced pitching staff going to compete, especially considering they had only one accomplished hitter?

Though their offense left much to be desired (22nd in the league in Runs scored, 28th in both AVG and Slugging %) the Padres got off to a strong start thanks to their elite pitching staff. By the end of April they were 15-8. And they kept winning, and winning. And winning. Halfway through August they were atop the division with a comfortable 73-47 record. Unfortunately a slide later in the month allowed the Giants to gain momentum and eventually catch up. San Diego played hard until the end, but fell short of the NL Wild Card crown by just one game. It was a heartbreaking end, but considering the expectations– 90-72 was certainly an impressive record, and enough to net Bud Black NL Manager of the Year honors.

High Point

It doesn’t take a statistician to deduce that the Padres won thanks to their pitching. The star of their young staff, 22-year old Mat Latos impressed the entire league with numbers that included an ERA of 2.92, WHIP at 1.08, and 189 Strikeouts (and only 50 BB’s) in just 184.2 Innings Pitched. The Pads also got great work from another youngster, Clayton Richard, as well as journeyman Jon Garland–who at 31 had some of the best numbers of his career.

When we say their pitching was strong, that means ALL of their pitching, because their Bullpen carried much of the load. Closer Heath Bell was second in the league in Saves with 47, while relievers Joe Thatcher and Luke Gregerson kept their WHIPs under 1.00 while combining for over 115 innings pitched. Guys like Mike Adams (1.76 ERA) and Ernesto Frieri (awesome name to go with a 11.65 K/9 ratio) rounded out the pen. All together the Padres team ERA of 3.39 and BAA (Batting Average Against) of .240 were both good enough for second in all of baseball.

Low Point

When the Padres ended April with a winning record, most people expected them to fall off in May. When that didn’t happen, we expected it in June. Nope. July? Try again. When in mid-August it looked like they might hang on and win the West thanks to a 6.5 game lead, the other shoe finally dropped. Between August 26th and September 5th they rattled off a ten-game losing streak. The Giants smelled blood, and soon after, when the rivals squared off for a four-game series, the Padres lost three of the four. From there they played .500 ball, which just wasn’t enough to keep up with the (eventual World Series champion) Giants.

Ongoing Prognosis

It’s great to see the underdog succeed, but the Padres were a 2010 underdog for a reason. They just don’t have an offense. There’s no better example than the last ten games of the season, when they were fighting for a playoff spot, and scored just sixteen runs. Gonzalez is an amazing hitter, but he can’t carry the load himself, and off-season acquisition Cameron Maybin, at this point in his career, is not much of an upgrade over Tony Gwynn Jr.

As I said, their pitching is amazing, and it’s no doubt a strength that they should build around. But how should they build? They waited too long to trade Gonzalez, and due to off-season shoulder surgery, he likely won’t net them what they feel they deserve in return. Perhaps they’ll again explore trading Bell for a young bat to complement their power-hitting First Basemen and the hot-and-cold Ryan Ludwick. The point is, if they don’t upgrade the offense to compliment their pitching, the 2010 season will likely become an oasis in a desert of losing seasons.

Check us out on twitter – @DugoutDoctors

Season in Review: Seattle Mariners

Preseason Prediction: 1st or 2nd in AL West

Regular Season Outcome: 4th in AL West

Summary

For many, the Mariners were the sexy pick to win the AL West. They came off a winning season in 2009 and seemed to get better in the offseason by forming arguably the strongest one-two pitching punch in baseball with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. Hometown legend Ken Griffey Jr. announced he’d be back to play another season, and most importantly they had put together a strong defense. Everyone cheered: “Defense! Defense will save us all!”

Sure, many realized their spotty offense made them a risky pick to finish first, but nobody could have ever seen it getting this bad. At season’s end the Mariners were a miserable 61-101, and that doesn’t even tell the half of it. Over the course of the 162-game season, the Seattle Mariners scored 513 runs. 513. How bad is that? Last in the league. 74 fewer runs than second-to-last (Pirates). 346 less than first (Yankees). 208 less than the AL Average. The last time a team scored fewer runs, the year was 1971 and — as the brilliant Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated pointed out — the reaction in the AL was the addition of the Designated Hitter.

Yes folks, the Mariners were flat out terrible. They ranked dead last in every single major offensive category (seriously, take your pick: Avg, HR, RBI, 2B, 3B, Hits, OBP, OPS) but At-Bats (29th) and Walks (28th). You’d be better off with an offense made up entirely of Pitchers.

High Point

It was an awful season, but you needn’t look far to find the high point, as yesterday Felix Hernandez was named the 2010 AL Cy Young. At just age 24, King Felix put up dominant numbers: 2.37 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 232 Ks, 6 CGs. Most importantly, all the stat-heads out there can thank Felix for breaking down the long-standing tradition of honoring pitchers with the most wins. As you may have guessed, by pitching for the Mariners, King Felix didn’t get much run support. Because of this, he didn’t have all that many wins (13 to be exact). But his stats were just too good to overlook, helping him win the award by a large margin.

Low Point

If Hernandez was the high point, what was the low point? If you guessed “everything else” you’re beginning to get the picture. What should we highlight? How about the fact that the player who spent the most time in the clean-up spot (Jose Lopez) had an OPS of just .609? Or that Russ Branyan lead the team in HRs with 15? The underperformance of their big offseason acquisition Chone Figgins? The firing of their Manager?

That was all bad. But surely the worst part of the season for the Mariners was the embarrassing retirement of Griffey Jr., a local hero. He started the season awfully slow, and never got it going. Rumors began to swirl about Manager Don Wakamatsu’s reluctance to use Junior in various pinch-hitting situations. Then, a story broke, claiming Griffey was found asleep in the clubhouse in the middle of a game. Griffey denied it — we all wanted to believe him! But soon after Griffey announced his retirement. In the end it’ll be seen as a small blip in a great career. But it wasn’t the way the baseball world wanted to see him go out.

Ongoing Prognosis

It’s hard to know exactly what they should do to improve. Their best hitter — Ichiro — is 37. They don’t really have anybody worthy of the DH role, and big-time prospect Justin Smoak (the big prize from the Cliff Lee trade) has yet to prove he can hit at the big-league level. I suppose the key here is to simply wait out the bad times. They should shy away from any big name free agents, let their younger players develop, and focus on trades and the draft. Hopefully in a few years they’ll have a strong core that’s ready to make a push for the playoffs…Even if Ichiro isn’t around to see it.

Florida Marlins trade Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves

Well, well. The annual GM Meetings aren’t in existence for the sole purpose of discussing boring baseball matters, after all. Some time in between voting on parking costs and debating whether Bud Selig wears a toupee, the Florida Marlins traded 2B Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves for Utility-Man Omar Infante and RP Michael Dunn.

Atlanta’s Perspective

General Manager Frank Wren got away with a steal here. It was reported that when Wren called new Manager Fredi Gonzalez and asked him if he’d be okay with trading Infante and Dunn for Uggla, Gonzalez’ response was “who else are we giving them?”

Going in to the off-season, Atlanta desperately needed to address their lack of power as well as the black hole that is LF. In addition, they wanted that bat to be right-handed, as Atlanta’s offense is heavy from the left side. But in quickly surveying the small pool of free agents, it was easy to see that a right-handed power hitter was nowhere to be found. So Wren turned to the trade market. By acquiring Uggla, the Braves get a slugger who would have lead their team in HR, Slug% and OPS this season.

By parting only with Infante and Dunn, the Braves still find themselves in a position of power on the trade market. If they choose to target a talented Outfielder like Justin Upton, Ryan Braun or Colby Rasmus, they’ll have tools like Martin Prado and a plethora of young pitchers to dangle. If they want to stand pat, look for Prado to be shifted to Left, and Uggla to hit fourth between Jason Heyward and Brian McCann.

Florida’s Perspective

This was strictly a move to slash payroll. Once Uggla turned down the team’s 4 year/$48 million dollar extension offer, the writing was on the wall. The surprise here is the small package they got in return, especially considering they traded him to a division rival. Omar Infante is a solid utility player, hell, it even says All-Star next to his name (for some reason…), but he has no business being a regular starter. While he did hit .321 this season, his career OBP of .319 leaves much to be desired. As for Dunn, he’s a wild lefty reliever. While he throws hard and often misses bats, if hitters take a patient approach against him, they’ll usually find they’ve been given a free base.

So while the Marlins clearly wanted to part ways with Uggla’s salary, it seems they took one of the first offers they were given, without truly testing the trade market. By waiting another two weeks, they likely could have boosted the package considerably.

Season in Review: Chicago White Sox

Preseason Prediction: 2nd or 3rd in AL Central

Regular Season Outcome: 2nd in AL Central

Summary:

The 2010 season contained many ups and downs for the Chicago White Sox. The 34-year old Paul Konerko had a career year, posting an OPS of .977, while 2009′s exciting rookie Gordan Beckham struggled to get anything going. When June 8th found the club at 24-33, rumors swirled that the team was ready to throw in the towel and trade some valuable pieces. Fans braced themselves for a tearful goodbye to local favorites like Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Buehrle. Then out of nowhere, things seemed to click. Ozzie Guillen’s club got hot in June (more on that later), and on July 20th found themselves 3.5 games up in the AL Central. They lead the division until early August. Unfortunately, while the Sox continued to play well, the Twins played better. At season’s end, 88-74 was simply not good enough, and the Sox missed the playoffs for the secon straight year.

High Point:

As mentioned previously, the team caught fire in June. From June 9th to June 26th they won 15 of 16 (and eleven straight), while outscoring their opponents 81 to 34. Soon after they rattled off a 9 game win streak. By the time that hot pace was complete their 24-33 record had been transformed into a beautiful 50-38.

Low Point:

They were outplayed by the Twins down the stretch. For evidence, you needn’t look any further than their head-to-head play. Over the course of the season, Chicago was 5-13 against the rival Twins. Thirteen of those games came in the second half of the season, when the Sox had the ultimate opportunity to distance themselves from the competition. Instead, they went 3-10, capped off by a Minnesota sweep in Chicago.

Ongoing Prognosis:

Much of the roster is set, but there are remaining questions. Will they cut ties with Bobby Jenks and pursue a free agent like Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes or Kevin Gregg (yes, I think so)? Will they resign long-time first basemen Paul Konerko (given his friendship with owner Jerry Reinsdorf, this also seems likely)? How about trading Gordan Beckham in a deal that will upgrade their weaknesses at DH or Catcher (this seems less likely, but Kenny Williams has never been afraid to make a deal)?

The Sox are one of few teams that–at this early stage–already have their rotation set. While it may not be elite, it’s certainly not a weakness. Assuming Jake Peavy comes back from the surgery he underwent in July, he’ll help fill out a group that includes Buerhle, John Danks, Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd. If one of them should go down, or Peavy’s shoulder isn’t quite ready to start the season, Rookie Chris Sale could slot in nicely. If everyone is healthy, I see Sale as the primary set-up man before he joins the rotation in 2012.

Assuming Pierzynski signs elsewhere (something the club would be wise to let him do) Kenny Williams will have holes to fill at Catcher, DH and the Closer role. Given the right moves and a little bit of luck, the Chicago White Sox can compete for the AL Central crown in 2011.

2010 Silver Slugger Awards

For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, here are this year’s Silver Slugger Awards. Take note of many of the first time
winners.

American League

C – Joe Mauer.

1B – Miguel Cabrera

2B -Robinson Cano

SS – Alexei Ramirez

3B – Evan Longoria

OF – Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista and Sin-Soo Choo

DH – David Ortiz

NATIONAL LEAGUE

C – Brian McCann

1B – Joey Votto.

2B – Dan Uggla.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki

3B – Ryan Zimmerman.

OF – Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth and Carlos Gonzalez .

P – Dan Haren

I think you’d have to say the biggest surprise on the list was SS Alexei Ramirez. Of course having Pujols absent from your list is a pretty big shocker.

Top 5 Second Level Free Agents

As free agency opens in baseball we are reminded that there are only a few premium free agents, and fewer teams that have the money to acquire them. We expect Cliff Lee to make the biggest payday and we expect that the Yankees will be willing to break the bank to get him. We know that teams will be opening up the coffers to get Carl Crawford but there are really only one or two teams that will have the resources to sign the hot left fielders.

So what about the rest of baseball? What about the rest of baseball that is looking for an upgrade and doesn’t have the kind of money it would take to sign Lee or Crawford? Who are the value buys in MLB? What are the second level free agents? Let’s take a look at them and see who they are and why your team might be interested in them.

1. Mariano Rivera

It’s almost laughable to put Rivera on this list, but his being a free agent is intriguing more for the Yankees than it is for Rivera. It would be a no brainer to keep the closer if he were 35 or even 39, but 41? 41 is getting long in the tooth and the Yankees could be looking to Yaba to make that step up. Considering how well he threw last year the Yankees will take him but if they decide they go a different direction there will be a ton of teams willing to take a flyer on Rivera.

2. Paul Konerko

Here’s why your team wants him. He plays good defense. It’s overlooked, but if you have watched him the way I have(living in Chicago) you can see that he doesn’t drop a lot and takes care of his position. He’s a big leader in the clubhouse. He’s vocal but not a jerk. He is loved by the fans. He’s coming off the biggest season of his 14 years. He doesn’t have too many years left and he can be streaky but he’s a good buy for a team that has a young kid that is a season or two away from being ready. The smart thinking is you could get a three year deal for him for less than 50 million. He could be a good alternative to the teams that lose out on Adam Dunn.

3. Brandon Webb

Here’s the gamble that could pay off. There is no doubt that when Webb is healthy he’s deadly on the mound. That slider is nasty and he’s an easy bet for 18 wins, maybe more. He’s the problem: he didn’t pitch at all last season so if he’s looking for premium money you might have to pass on him. However, Webb might be smart enough to take a deal that is back loaded and based on making starts. If he can do it then he is a tremendous bet for your team. If he works out he can take a team on the fence into the playoffs.

4. Jon Garland

No, this is not a Chicago biased article, but Garland has real value. He’s a lock to pitch around 200 innings. He is good for 12 to 18 wins a season. He won’t get blown out and he’ll keep you in ballgames. He also has post-season and world season experience which is a plus if you have a team that is playoff bound. He’s a good 4 or 3 starter on a team and he’s only 31. There is no reason a team that is thin in pitching shouldn’t consider bringing him on board.

5. Adam LaRoche

Sure, a .261 batting average isn’t anything that will take the world by storm but 25 home runs and 100 RBI’s is a really good stat for a player that is still in his low 30’s. The thinking is he could give a mid level team that boost they need. He could be a good fit in Chicago or a place that needs stability. He’s not going to be a big contract. You could sign him for roughly 5 years and 60 million.

You don’t have to break the bank for a free agent this winter, once you look past the biggest names there is some real value there.