Will Matt Kemp win the MVP? Told you these predictions were BOLD!

6 Bold Predictions for 2010.

NL East: John Smoltz Rejoins the Braves

After some Braves pitchers go down with injury, the team fills the void with future HOFer John Smoltz. While starting when he arrives in Atlanta, Smoltz finishes the season in the Braves pen, giving the Braves another veteran closer to rely on.

With Smoltz help, the Braves win the Wild Card and finally return to October. The team overcomes the Phillies for the NL Pennant, but eventually falls short in the World Series.

After returning to the playoffs, Smoltz, Chipper and Bobby Cox all call it a career. The three good friends make plans to meet up in Cooperstown five years later.

NL Central: Alcides Escobar Wins Rookie of the Year

Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Pedro Alvarez.

Despite being one of two players on this list with a guaranteed starting job, Escobar has been overshadowed by many other rookies.
But hype doesn’t always win out. Escobar builds on his strong MLB play last year to edge out Jason Heyward for NL Rookie of the Year.
When Rickie Weeks struggles (which would be the opposite of a bold prediction) Escobar is moved atop the Brewers order. Hitting over .300 while stealing 40 bases, Escobar is among the league leaders in runs with Braun and Fielder hitting behind him.

NL West: Matt Kemp wins MVP

Continuing his rapid ascent to stardom, Kemp ends the year as baseball’s first 40/40 player since Alfonso Soriano in 2006.
Reaching his full power potential, Kemp manages to reach the 40 homer mark for the first time. He also steals 42 bases (eight more than last year). With a 300+ batting average and well over 100 RBI, Kemp wins MVP.

Despite Kemp’s extraordinary year, the Dodgers miss out on the playoffs due to a poor performance from their starting rotation.

AL East: Rays trade Carl Crawford, Still Make Playoffs

Knowing that they have little chance to keep Carl Crawford following the 2010 season, the Rays make a deadline deal to send him away for more prospects.

Although the Rays are behind both the Red Sox and Yankees in the standings, they eventually rally into the Wild Card spot, led by Crawford’s replacement, Desmond Jennings.

Jennings, a prospect in the same mold as Crawford, excels in his first MLB season. Coupled with Jeremy Hellickson, the Rays begin another youth movement which leads them back to October.

AL Central: Francisco Liriano Competes for the Cy Young, But Loses to Jake Peavy

Remember when Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched. Well if his spring was any indication, we might finally get to see the 2006 version of Liriano again.
I see Liriano putting up a 2.90 ERA this year while striking out 200+ batters if he stays in the rotation all year.

Now think back to 2007, the last season that Jake Peavy made more than 30 starts. That year, he won the pitching Triple Crown while posting 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts.

I also see Peavy returning to his old form in 2010, posting numbers very similar to Liriano. In the end, the White Sox win the division, and a higher win total might give the Cy Young to Peavy.

AL West: The Mariners Record Doesn’t Improve Despite Off-Season Additions

Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins were brought in Seattle to make the Mariners competitors, but I still think this team is far behind the Angels and Rangers.

Last year, the Mariners got extremely lucky, winning 85 games despite posting a run differential of -52. The expected record for a team with that run differential is 75-87.

In 2009, Lee and Figgins had WARs of 6.6 and 6.1, respectively. Their combined WAR of 12.7 is less than 10 above the players that they are replacing (Adrian Beltre and a number of pitchers who made starts in 2010). That, coupled with Russell Branyan departing (and being replaced with the much worse Casey Kotchman), leaves the Mariners a team that should improve by 5-7 wins in 2010.

Assuming that the Mariners have neutral luck (which would have led to a 75-87 record in 2009), they will finish this season around .500, possibly below it. Even with a small amount of good luck, the Mariners will be hard pressed to reach the 85 wins that they had in 2009.

Brett Kettyle

Dock Ellis was an All Star, a champion, and threw a drug induced no-no.

Once upon a time there was a pitcher by the name of Dock Ellis. He pitched for a half dozen teams including winning 19 games for the World Champion Pittsburgh Pirates in 1971. Ellis also started for the National League in the All Star game that season, but will always be remembered for one thing.

Dock … take it away.

Thanks to @GillianJacobs for finding this one. Love her!

Ellis had an eventful playing career. He was the pitcher that gave up Reggie Jackson’s famous All Star blast that is still going. He also beaned Mr. October in obvious retaliation, was maced by a Cincinnati security guard, and beaned nearly every single Cincinnati Red in a 1974 game. Ellis sadly died in late 2008.

Twitter
@MatAnaya
@DugoutDoctors

An off season of gun shoot wounds, nasty divorces, and marijuana charges must mean only one thing; we are talking about the NL West!

All kidding aside, this might be the most competitive division in baseball, for better of for worse. Much like last year, you can expect to see these five teams beat each other up, with two emerging down the stretch in September for the division.

Last seasons division champions the Dodgers come in with hopes of defending their division crown once again, but with off the field issues rearing their head it could be their stiffest test yet.

The Rockies will be looking to actually stay hot for an entire season instead of the usual, “oh hey lets catch up and win a million games in a row” form which has teased their fans the last few seasons.

The Giants enjoyed the 1-2 punch of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain but still came up short in the division due to a still figuring it out offensive side of the unit.

It was the Adrian Gonzalez show for the Padres, but his supporting cast of characters failed to come close to his production as the team hopes their youth comes through more in 2010.

Dan Haren was all the Diamondbacks had last season, but when Brandon Webb went down hope was gone for the snakes. A healthy back in form Webb could be just what the young Diamondbacks needs to return to their early 2000’s prominence.

Colorado Rockies (92-70) Lost to Phillies in NLDS

If the Rockies can improve on two things this season, they can and will win the National League West.

One: Start off on the right foot. Last season on May 29th, the Rockies were 19-28 and firing skipper Clint Hurlde for bench coach Jim Tracey. The rest is history as they caught fire and won the wild card.

Two: Find a way to beat the Dodgers. The Rockies were only 3-12 vs. the Dodgers in 2010; imagine if they could have won just a handful more of those games, they would have taken the division.

I like the Rockies here because their starting rotation just does enough. They were the only team in baseball to have their five man rotation each win at least 10 games and who said nobody could pitch in Coors Field? The Rockies ranked 8th in RA/G at 4.42.

Four of the starters return the season, with Jason Marquis leaving via free agency to the Nationals. Jeff Francis will be looking to bounce back to his former 2007 form after missing the entire 2009 season due to injury. Also, Taylor Bucholtz will return in 2010, and the setup man has shown before his arm injury last season, that he has plenty of ability as a setup man.

It took a few weeks, but Huston Street figured it out and anchored the bullpen as the closer with a 3.06 era pitching in 61.1 innings. Fans will not remember his last moments fondly however, as he gave up 3 runs with the Rockies leading 4-2 as the Phillies won the NLDS. No doubt he will be back in form

The offense will be as good as always and assisted by a little depth. Newly signed Melvin Mora will back up Ian Stewart at 3rd base, while Jason Giambi will spell Todd Helton when needed. Expect SS Troy Tulowitzki to put up huge numbers again, just as he did last season hitting 32 HRs and driving in 92 runs.

The Rockies have never been to the playoffs in back to back seasons, but with a good mix of veterans and young guns, the Rockies can not only make the playoffs but take the division.

Lineup:
RF Brad Hawpe
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
2B Clint Barnes
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Todd Helton
3B Ian Stewart
C Chris Iannetta

Starting rotation:
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Jeff Francis

Bullpen:
Huston Street (CL)
Manuel Corpas
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Esmil Rogers
Rafael Betancourt
Troy Bucholtz
Randy Flores
Matt Belisle
Samuel Deduno

Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) Lost in NLCS

One organization dying to return to the field is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plenty has happened this off-season, as Manny says he will not return, SP Vicente Padilla shot himself in the leg, and the owner is fighting to save his money in a divorce. Plus is this might be Joe Torre’s swan song?

For the Dodgers to be successful, they need to limit these distractions. How hard will Manny Ramirez play? Has he packed it in already? His comment about not playing for the Dodgers in 2011 is a strange one and there must be something behind the scenes for him to say that. Making one to think that he has been told by management they will not be giving him a new contract. Just how much payroll will have to be slashed in the soon to be nasty divorce between owners Frank and Jamie McCourt?

The Dodgers were 12-3 vs. Colorado, 7-4 vs. Arizona, 9-4 vs. San Diego, and 7-5 vs. their rivals the Giants. If they can complete that kind of success once again they will be tough to beat. A full season of Vicente Padilla is sure to be a roller coaster ride, just ask Texas Ranger fans, and the Dodgers will be carried by a stellar pitching staff and maybe the most solid defense in the National league. At 3.77 RA/G, the Dodgers were #1 in all of baseball.

The departure of Jon Garland means there is an opening in the starting rotation yet to be filled, so the battle to complete the rotation will be interesting this spring in Arizona. Jeff Weaver, who pitched in 2009 for the Dodgers and actually won game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Cardinals, was pitching on a minor league contract which expired at the end of the season. On February 2 he signed a new minor league deal which will bring him to camp with a chance to win that coveted rotation spot. Many people tip Eric Stults to be his main competitor.

With all the focus on the pitching staff and their ability to pitch well at home, you can’t forget these boys can hit too. Andre Either and Matt Kemp each drove in over 100 runs while hitting 31 and 26 HRs respectively. While missing 50 games due to suspension and losing a little over 200 AB compared to Either and Kemp, Manny was still Manny hitting 19 HR with 63RBI hitting .290. Like I said though, will Manny have that same Dodger love and passion after saying this is it?

Expect a tight race between the Dodgers and Rockies, but the Dodgers will fall a little short. However, they control their own fate, as their final 18 games come against NL west opponents. In that final stretch, they play 2 three game series at ARZ and COL, before wrapping up the season with a three game home series with ARZ. Look for the Dodgers to snatch up the wild card.

Lineup:
SS Rafael Furcal
1B James Loney
LF Manny Ramirez?RF Andre Ethier
CF Matt Kemp?3B Casey Blake
C Russell Martin
2B Ronnie Belliard

Starting rotation:
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda?
Vicente Padilla?

Bullpen:
George Sherrill?Jonathan Broxton (CL) ?Hong-Chih Kuo?Ramon Troncoso?Ronald Belisario?James McDonald?Carlos Monasterios
Eric Stults

Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92)

The biggest rebound team maybe in the National League could be the Arizona Diamondbacks. To say heads dropped once Brandon Webb went down last season for the year is an understatement. This was a young team counting on young hitters and the 1-2 punch of Dan Haren and BWebb, but with injuries and inexperience, the DBacks faltered to last in the division.

Dan Haren was an all star and absolutely dominated in 2009 and in a day in age when it’s hard to trust your pitcher to last during the wear and tear of a baseball season, Haren has been the man to count on. The righty has pitched at least 33 games each of the last 5 seasons. Throw in the fact he does so while dominating hitters, what more could an organization ask for in a starter. It will be nearly impossible to top the career best numbers he had last year, but Haren will most definitely be the Diamondbacks ace.

The Diamondbacks absolutely made out like bandits by acquiring stud RHP Edwin Jackson in a trade from the Detroit Tigers. Jackson will fit into the 3rd spot in the rotation, but he could be a #2 or even #1 on plenty of teams in the bigs. The 26 year old 2009 all star also showed his durability by pitching over 200 innings last season for the first time. With a two year contract entering this season already awarded for Jackson, he can pitch without worries of what team or what his future will be for the first time in a few seasons.

All eyes this season will be on Justin Upton this season. The younger brother of Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton, Justin might have even more talent than B.J, and that’s scary. The young right fielder has the speed, power, and average to be an all star for years to come. Not a bad first full season when you have 158 hits, 26 HRs, 86RBIs, 7 3Bs, and 20 SBs. Not to mention watching him fly around RF is a joy to watch.

Third baseman Mark Reynolds needs to address his strike out issues. For the second straight year, the 26 year old broke the MLB record for strikeouts at 223. It is the only blemish in his game. He is such a great hitter as he led the team in HR, RBI, and runs scored. Fans have been and will continue to be patient with Reynolds, since he just completed only his second season in the bigs. Expect more of the same from Reynolds as the tag team effort of Reynolds and Upton will help lead the Diamondbacks to one of the biggest turn a rounds of the season.

If the Diamondbacks can sure up a bullpen that struggled last season, Brandon Webb stays healthy, Haren is Haren, Edwin Jackson struts his stuff, newly acquired Ian Kennedy finally gets his career on track, and the young offense continues to improve, the Diamondbacks will make a wild card push. I think they are 1 more season away from competing for the division crown and regular playoff contention. Stay patient Diamondback fans because GM Josh Byrnes has done some great wheeling and dealing.

Lineup:
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Conor Jackson LF
Miguel Montero C
Chris Young CF

Starting rotation:
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Billy Buckner

Bullpen:
Chad Qualls (CL)
Bob Howry
Blaine Bowyer
Juan Gutierrez
Aaron Heilman
Clay Zavada
Esmerling Vasquez
Leo Rosales
Zach Kroenke

San Francisco Giants (88-74)

The San Francisco Giants were a surprise team last season. Tiny Tim Lencicum only got even better, and won the Cy Young doing so. Nobody knows just how high the ceiling is for this guy, but watching him pitch only makes my arm feel like its going to fall off, and I’m only sitting in my recliner. The guy throws his whole body into every pitch, and shows no wear and tear for it. Matt Cain also dominated and could have wont he Cy Young himself if not slightly overshadowed by his younger teammate. However, the team by the bay offensively could not match the riches of the pitching staff and fell short in the Wild Card race.

The organization knew their weakness and went straight after improving it in the off-season. Last season the Giants ranked near the bottom of the NL charts, at13th in runs, 15th in HR, and last in OPS. While they did sign IF/OF Mark DeRosa and IF Aubrey Huff, DeRosa is coming back from off season wrist surgery and benefited from hitting in a stellar Cardinal lineup. Huff drove in 85 runs last season but only hit .240. While they are additions, they are will not solve all the problems. A full season of former Pirate Freddy Sanchez at 2B should help the cause as well. Pablo Sandoval came out of nowhere and hit .330 was the only hitter to bat over .300. Can he repeat the same success?

What can you say about the pitching staff, it’s almost hard to describe. Giant fans are lucky to be watching Lincecum and heck even Matt Cain. It took long enough for Giant fans, but even Barry Zito kind of figured it out. So much will ride on Zito this season, if he can improve even slightly the Giants can finish better than predicted, as long as their offense helps out. Watch out for another kid, SP Madison Bumgarner, who looked good. He should slip into the tail end of the Giants rotation; this young kid could be a stud in the making.

Brian Wilson saved 38 games and was steady as the Giants closer last season. He had a lot to live up to after 41 saves in 2008, but Wilson was none the less solid. He was spectacular in the 2nd half of 2009, racking up a 1.64 ERA while 1.15 WHIP. Two seasons on the job, 79 saves, not too shabby.

The pitching staff looks amazing. Can their offense win those 2-1, 3-2 games though? The pressure is on the offense since it has been designated as the weakness, so can they deliver? We will see, but the lofty expectations might get to them and it will be hard to execute quite the success this team had last season. They will be good, but in a loaded NL west, the improvements might not be enough.

Lineup:
CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Mark DeRosa
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
2B Freddy Sanchez
C Bengi Molina
RF Nate Schierholtz

Rotation:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner

Bullpen:
Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Sergio Romo
Brandon Medders
Joe Martinez
Henry Sosa
Waldis Joaquin
Dan Runzler

San Diego Padres (75-87)

Listen up Padres fans and repeat after me, many many times, “patience is a virtue, patience is a virtue.” Padres’ fans seem to understand that these Padres are building to win down the road, and not so much right now. In 2009 the Padres saw the end of the Jake Peavy era as he was traded for four prospects to the White Sox. The Padres still improved on their record in 2009 though, improving their record by 12 games from 2008.

Not to be super harsh, but in 2009 it was a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of other guys. While Gonzalez lead the team in HR, RBI, runs, and OPS (40, 99, 90, .958) they still ranked at or near the bottom in team average (16th), run (15th), OBP (12th), SLG (16th), OPS (15th). While the pitching was good or average, the offense didn’t help the cause.

The bad news is, the Padres did very little to improve themselves offensively, which is sure not to sit to well with Gonzalez, who at some point could become frustrated with carrying the load. Trading third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, maybe their second biggest bat in the lineup, and then pumping up the addition of Jerry Hairston Jr. isn’t going to do this pitching staff many favors.

I don’t care what anyone says, the Padres have to keep Gonzalez. The thought of trading your best player is something I have never understood, especially when he is one of the better players in the league. Right now the Padres could get nothing of equal value. The Padres will continue to lean on him and their young hitters, such as Tony Gwynn Jr. and Chase Headley.

The Padres did add a new, high-quality quality arm in Jon Garland, and did so on the cheap. With a payroll only at $40 million this season, to sign Garland (who was looking for around $10 million more) on a $5.3 million dollar one year deal was a good move. He will slip into the rotation at the third spot, and maybe second, behind Chris Young. The giant right hander had a shaky season, with a few glimpses of greatness and the sometimes head scratching performance sprinkled in. However, he only pitched in 14 games, and most everyone gives him the benefit of the doubt that injuries contributed to his troubles.

The good news, Padres fans can sit back, enjoy the superb weather and watch some other young pitchers with good potential. Clayton Richards, who came from Chicago in the Peavy deal, is a ground ball pitcher who has shown his upside, including one game where the 26 year old held the Dodgers scoreless in seven innings of work. Mat Latos, one of the Padres top prospects, will start the season in the majors. This 22 year old has great control and can throw fire with 97 mph heat. Latos struck out 39 hitters in the 50.2 innings pitched late in the season.

Heath Bell is the closer, who somehow dodged the trade deadline and remained in beautiful San Diego. While he is only 32, it would be hard to imagine the Padres not trading the 2009 all star at the deadline if they aren’t in contention, which they really shouldn’t be. Bell is and will be a coveted closer, who compiled 42 saves out of 48 chances with opponents hitting .213 against him. Bell will be stellar when given the chance once again.

It will be a season similar to last for the Padres, but hey, they did at least land one big fish, and he will not even be on the field, as Dick Enberg joins the Padres TV crew.

Lineup:
SS Everth Cabrera
2B David Eckstein
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Chase Headley
LF Kyle Blanks
C Nick Hundley
RF Will Venable
CF Scott Hairston

Starting Rotation:
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos

Bullpen
Heath Bell (CL)
Edward Mujica
Luke Gregerson
Luis Perdomo
Joe Thatcher
Ryan Webb

Ladies and gentlemen, that’s all for the National League West. It is gonna be a doozy and maybe the best division in baseball. The best part of that is, it’s a bunch of teams with a good mix of young talent, and it’s going to remain a tough battle for years to come. The Padres and Diamondbacks will get there and join the rest of the west, just give them time.

David Fallavollita

As spring makes it’s way in, we say goodbye to a dreadful winter and welcome the 2010 MLB season.

The Twins will try and defend their division title and bolstered their lineup with veterans Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. They have the offense to repeat, but they will need plenty of help from their starting pitching to contend for yet another division title.

The White Sox made off-season moves of their own to challenge the Twins for the Central, adding much needed help in the bullpen (J.J. Putz) and filling gaps that were lost to free agency (Juan Pierre).

Detroit is trying to keep pace with both Minnesota and Chicago by recently signing Johnny Damon, who will return to the American League Central where he first got his feet wet with the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals look ahead this year to once again battle their way out of the cellar. With a returning Cy-Young award winner and young pitching prospects (Aaron Crow, Luke Hocheavar) on the rise. Look for them not only to finish no only out of last, but possibly even finish ahead of the Tigers.

The Indians have an above average offense, but as it goes with any team in baseball, pitching is the key to winning. Do not expect a contender out of this club even if Kerry Wood finds his late 90’s dominance.

Minnesota Twins (87-76 in 2009 1st place in AL Central)

After an exciting finish to the 2009 regular season, the Minnesota Twins will look to start new and prepare for another division title. After acquiring SS J.J. Hardy from the Brewers for the young and talented Carlos Gomez, the Twins turned around and sign 2nd basemen Orlando Hudson and veteran DH Jim Thome (both parting ways with the Dodgers of Los Angeles). Hardy is much needed after the Twins declined to make an offer to veteran SS Orlando Cabrera and after an excellent 2007 and 2008 seasons in Milwaukee, Hardy saw his numbers drop off tremendously (.229/11/47) in 2009.

With the acquisitions of Thome and Hudson, the Twins have the veteran leadership needed for the 3rd youngest team in baseball entering 2010. With returning MVP Joe Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau, there is no doubt the Twins are favorites to win the Central despite the lack of starting pitching (ranked 23rd in all of baseball).

If Fransico Liriano can return to his 2006 form where he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a breakout year from Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker, this team could make a push for the AL pennant. They have one of the best closers in Joe Nathan, who has averaged over 40 saves the past 6 seasons, and after season ending Tommy John surgery to Pat Neshek, the Twins look to strengthen their bullpen with Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney. Both finished last year in Triple A and will be fighting for a spot in spring training, and if these right handers can bring their dominate stuff to the big leagues, they will take a lot of pressure off of Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares.

With a solid coaching staff led by 2009 Manager of the Year candidate Ron Gardenhire, look for the Twins to repeat as Central champs once again.

Prediction: (95-67) 1st in the AL Central

Starting Lineup

Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel/Jim Thome DH
Michael Cuddyer RF
Delmon Young LF
J.J. Hardy SS
Brendan Harris 3B

Bench

Nick Punto Util
Alexi Casilla 2B/SS
Jacque Jones OF

Starting Rotation

Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Carl Pavano
Fransico Liriano
Nick Blackburn

Bullpen
Joe Nathan
Matt Guerrier
Pat Neshek
Jon Rauch
Jose Mijares
Clay Condrey
Jesse Crain

Detroit Tigers (86-77 2nd place 2009 AL Central)

The end of the 2009 campaign is one that the Tigers players, front office, and fans will want to put behind them as they embark on another 162 game regular season (not 163).

They will look forth to contend for the central division yet again, and the Tigers were busy this off-season filling holes left by the departure of Curtis Granderson, Placido Palanco, and Edwin Jackson.

In a seven-player three-team trade the Tigers may have got the best of this deal, as they sent Granderson to the Yankees and Jackson to the Diamndbacks, in return they received CF Austin Jackson, RP Phil Coke from the Yankees and SP Max Scherzer and RP Daniel Schlereth (son of former Denver Broncos lineman Mark Schlereth) from the Diamonbacks.

The Tigers believe Jackson has the speed to account for the loss of Granderson, but they’re not expecting to see the same power production. For that they went out and signed veteran outfielder Johnny Damon to a one-year deal, and he can cover some ground in the outfield, steal a few bases, and hit for some power.

The Tigers front office is hoping to get the same Max Scherzer that was so highly touted coming out of the University of Missouri in 2007. Last season he finished 9-11 with a 4.16 era and 174 strikeouts and look for his win total to go up now that he’s with a team that can produce runs.

He joins a staff of a proven winner in Justin Verlander and rookie standout Rick Porcello (14-9 3.96), and they move Coke and Schlereth to a bullpen in much need of left handed arms.

Veteran closer Jose Valverde moves over from the Astors and he is coming off a very nice season when he went 25 for 29 in save opportunities, despite a injury plagued first half. With a healthy 2010 and help from Coke, Schlereth and flame throwing right hander Joel Zumaya, look for Valverde to have 40+ saves yet again.

Time and patience is growing short for manger Jim Leylend in Detroit and after making it to the World Series in 2006, the Tigers have yet to scratch their way back into the post season. With this being the least talented club since 2006, expect no better than a 3rd place finish from the boys from Motown.
Prediction: (85-77) 3rd place in the AL central

Starting Lineup
Austin Jackson CF
Johnny Damon LF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Carlos Guillen DH
Magglio Ordonez RF
Brandon Inge 3B
Gerald Laird C
Adam Everett SS
Scott Sizemore/Ramon Santiago 2B

Bench
Ryan Raburn OF
Clete Thomas OF
Ramon Santiago INF
Alex Avila C

Starting Rotation

Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Max Scherzer
Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galaragga/Dontrelle Willis

Bullpen
Jose Valverde CL
Joel Zumaya
Zach Miner
Phil Coke
Daniel Schlereth
Bobby Seay
Fu-Te Ni
Alfredo Figaro

Chicago White Sox (79-83 3rd place 2009 AL Central)

As the boys from the south side of Chicago head into the 2010 season, there is nothing but optimism buzzing in the clubhouse. After a disappointing finish to the 2009 season, where the White Sox were pushing towards a Central division title after acquiring RHP Jake Peavy from the Padres and OF Alex Rios from the Blue Jays, the Sox fell 4 games short of their 1st postseason appearance since 2008.

Since then GM Kenny Williams has been busy. He traded away infielders Chris Getz and Josh Fields to the Royals for OF and 3B Mark Teahen, who will bring plenty of depth to this Chicago defense. He displayed that he could play any fielding position when playing for the Royals and he will be able to do the same if called upon in Chicago.

GM Kenny Williams didnt stop there. After losing veteran OF Jemaine Dye to free agency he quickly signed the speedy Juan Pierre and veteran OF Andruw Jones. Pierre will fill the void left by Scott Podsednik who was also lost to the free-agent market, and his speed and defense will match that of Scotty Pods,
The club also signed 43 year old SS Omar Vizquel, who spent much of his career playing against this White Sox team as a member of the Cleveland Indians, but Vizquel does not appear to get much playing time behind the Cuban Missile SS Alexi Ramirez.

After watching the strong finish from rookie 2nd basemen Gordan Beckham (.270/14/63) in just 103 games, manager Ozzie Guillen believes that he is the best bat he has on this team full of talented players. If that is the case then watch out for the boys from the southside in 2010.

Carlos Quentin still appears to be the backbone of this offense and if he can find a way to stay healthy and play a full season, and with the veteran leadership from Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the White Sox may have their sights set on another postseason trip in October.
The pitching staff of this Chicago team is not one to be taken lightly. If you did not know who Mark Buehrle was before the start of last year, you soon came to find out after he threw a perfect game( 1 of only 18 ever thrown) against the defending AL Champs, the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Sox also added RHP Jake Peavy, an NL Cy Young award winner in 2007, and already have rising stars Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Veteran Freddy Garcia will eat some innings and the White Sox appear to have the best rotation in the central entering the 2010 season.

The bullpen in Chicago is one of the deepest it’s had in years. With the arrival of J.J. Putz and Tony Pena, the White Sox now have 2 set up men they can rely on to pave the way for Bobby Jenks. Jenks has done nothing but throw hard and put up big numbers since taking the closers role in Chicago, as he has converted 146 save over 168 chances since getting the nod in 2005.
Look for the White Sox to win 90-95 games this year. If they want to have any dreams of playing in the postseason, Carlos Quentin will need to stay healthy and show the same kind of production he has in the past. At best, I see a second place finish in the Central and yet another year away from being a true contender for a World Series ring.

Prediction: (92-70) 2nd in the AL Central

Starting Lineup

Alexi Ramirez SS
Gordan Beckham 2B
Carlos Quentin RF
Paul Konerko 1B
Alex Rios CF
Andruw Jones DH
A.J. Pierzynski C
Mark Teahen 3B
Juan Pierre LF

Bench
Mark Kotsay OF/1B
Jason Nix Util
Brent Lillibridge 2B/SS
Omar Vizquel SS/2B

Starting Rotation
Jave Peavy
Mark Beuhrle
Gavin Floyd
John Danks
Freddie Garcia

Bullpen
Bobby Jenks CL
Matt Thorton
J.J. Putz
Scott Linebrink
Tony Pena
Randy Williams

Kansas City Royals (65-97 4th 2009 AL Central)

The Royals come into spring this year with a positive outlook and that outlook is #23 Cy-Young award winner Zach Greinke. After an incredible finish to the 2009 campaign, the 26-year-old right hander was a unanimous pick for the AL Cy-Young, as he finished ‘09 with a 16-8 record, 2.16 era, and 242 strikeouts. He boasts the lowest era since Pedro Martinez sported a 1.74 era in the 2000 campaign and his curveball will break a batters knees, while his fastball will keep them guessing all the way back to the dugout. With a new look offense and a solid bullpen behind him, look for a 20 game winner and a favorite going in for yet another AL Cy Young award.

The Royals are stacked with young talent and it is only a question of when and where they will produce. After being touted as the next George Brett of the franchise, 3rd basemen Alex Gordon has not shown that he is willing to take that label. In his first 3 years he’s averaged a dismal (12/47/.240) and if Kansas City hopes to make any noise at all in the basement of the Central Division, then Gordon has to step up and produce.

He needs to follow by example of the other young stars that were drafted in 2005 (i.e. Braun, Zimmerman, Upton, Tulowitzki, Ellsbury, Bruce, McCutcheon). Another rising star is 1B Billy Butler, who had a very strong second half to the 2009 campaign that most veteran players would be happy with. Butler hit 14 HR in 332 at bats and finished the year with 51 doubles, 22 homeruns, and a .301 average. If he could turn just 10 of those doubles into longballs, then everyone in Kansas City will forget about #4 sitting at the other hot corner. Slowly but surely Butler is making a name for himself.

Not a lot has changed with the bullpen of the Royals this year, and that maybe a cause for concern (22 blown saves in 2009). The Royals bullpen however has one of the best closers in baseball, and if you thought Greinke’s curve was nasty, take a look at Joakim Soria’s 12-6 bender. He only accounted for 3 blown saves in 2009, while converting 30 with a 2.21 ERA and 69 K’s in only 53 innings.

What is GM Dayton Moore thinking? Maybe he knows something we don’t. I think we all know if the Royals are going to win more than 75 games this year, they better add some much needed help in the bullpen.

Manager Trey Hillman is entering his 3rd year as the Royals skipper, and although he had plenty of success in Japan, he has yet to lead anyone to believe that he is capable of turning this team into a contender. Look for Trey to be on the hot seat come mid summer if this team isn’t hovering in the middle of Central race.

Prediction: (75-87) 4th in the AL Central

Starting Lineup

Scott Podsednik LF
Rick Ankiel CF
David DeJesus RF
Billy Butler 1B
Jose Guillen DH
Alex Gordon 3B
Miguel Olivo C
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Alberto Callaspo 2B

Bench
Josh Fields 3B
Chris Getz 2B
Willie Bloomquist Util.

Rotation
Zach Greinke
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Luke Hochever
Kyle Davies

Bullpen
Joakim Soria CL
Juan Cruz
Kyle Farnsworth
Ramon Colon
Carlos Rosa
Victor Marte
Anthony Lerew

Cleveland Indians (65-97 4th 2009 AL Central)

The Cleveland Indians break camp with many questions about their big league roster. The offense which ranked 12th in all of baseball in 2009 has a few concerns, and one is whether or not their most productive player from 2009 will be there in 2010.

Shinn Soo Choo is waiting to hear from the South Korean government on whether or not he will be playing in 2010. In South Korea every able bodied male must serve at least two years of military service by the age of 30 and Choo is fast approaching his 28th birthday in July. However, there is a catch. If Choo were to join South Koreas squad to play in the 2010 Asian games, and take home the gold, then the Korean government would pardon him and he is currently in negotiations with the Indians whether or not he will be able too.

The Indians hope to get back a healthy Jake Westbrook to anchor the pitching staff, although he has not pitched since 2008. Westbrook who averaged 15 wins from ’04-’07 but has not reached double digits since. In 30 starts since then he has only seven wins and spent most of 2009 on the DL.

With a pitching staff ranked 29th in all of baseball in 2009, they can only hope he can turn things around, but their bullpen does not bode well either. Seven of the eight relievers have only 15 years of major league experience combined and this will only be Kerry Wood’s third season in the ‘pen.

After a disappointing 2009 the Indians front office sent Eric Wedge and the entire coaching staff to the exits. They hired former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta and he certainly has a lot of work cut out for him in the stacked American League Central.

This Indians team is full of talented position players, but where they excel in offense, they lack in pitching. Expect to see a lot of offense put up only to watch the bullpen give it right back. This ball club is still three to five years away from being a true contender in the Central.

Prediction:(66-96) 5th in the AL Central

Starting Lineup
Grady Sizmore CF
Asdrubal Cabrera SS
Travis Hafner DH
Shinn-Soo Choo RF
Johnny Peralta 3B
Russel Branyan 1B
Lou Marson C
Luis Valbuena 2B
Michael Brantley LF

Bench
Matt Laporta 1B
Mike Redmond C
Trevor Crowe OF

Starting Rotation
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
David Huff
Justin Masterson
Aaron Laffey

Bullpen
Kerry Wood CL
Rafael Perez
Chris Perez
Jensen Lewis
Tony Sipp
Joe Smith

by
Ben Olson

The AL West is stacked with talent but there is not a clear cut winner

Jeopardy would be smart to include the AL West as one of its categories. I’ll take AL West for .500!\

Texas, Los Angeles, and Seattle all have the ability to win, yet all have major questions to answer first, and Oakland is young but will be competitive.

The AL West isn’t going to be the best league in baseball, but it could easily be the most exciting coming down the stretch and it will be your typical Wild West showdown between three teams all season long.

The Doctors are here to show you how the West will be won.

1. Texas Rangers
Arlington is already buzzing with excitement, as team President Nolan Ryan will have free reign to make the moves needed to bring a winner to Arlington and owner Tom Hicks will not be able to sabotage this team.

Offense has never been the Rangers problem, and it won’t be this year, as a healthy Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will lead a powerful attack that got even more powerful with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero.

As usual, there are a few question marks in the Texas pitching staff.
Rich Harden knows the AL West, and the Rangers are hoping he regains his Oakland success. Harden has the abilities to put up solid numbers, but it is highly unlikely he will stay healthy (Harden has never pitched over 200 innings).

The Rangers decided not to take a gamble on Texas native Ben Sheets, who made it clear he wanted to play in Arlington, and it could prove costly. Look for Texas to be in the market for Sheets at the trade deadline if he proves reliable for Oakland.

If the Rangers’ starters can keep the lead in the late innings, they can turn it over to a solid bullpen. Frank Francisco (25 saves) has great stuff and everything is in place for him to become a premier closer.

Youngster Neftali Feliz will be the wild card on the Texas staff. Regarded as a starter, Feliz may end up in bullpen as that bridge to the ninth for Francisco. Spring Training will provide some insight as to what the Rangers are leaning towards but look for Feliz to start off in the bullpen.

The Rangers youth will no longer be an excuse and the fans are demanding results. Players like SS Elvis Andrus, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Davis will be expected to produce this year and others like C Taylor Teagarden, another highly rated prospect, is waiting in the wings in case Saltalmacchia is unable to produce consistently.

2010 Projected Lineup:
CF – Julio Borbon (.312, 19 SB, 20 RBI)
3B – Michael Young (.322, 22 HR, 68 RBI)
2B – Ian Kinsler (.253, 31 SB, 86 RBI)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (.295, 15 HR, 50 RBI)
LF – Josh Hamilton (.268, 10 HR, 54 RBI)
RF – Nelson R. Cruz (.260, 33 HR, 76 RBI)
1B – Chris Davis (.238, 21 HR, 59 RBI)
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.233, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
SS – Elvis Andrus (.267, 33 SB, 40 RBI)

2010 Projected Pitching Staff:
Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09)
Scott Feldman (17-8 4.08)
Tommy Hunter (9-6, 4.10)
Brandon McCarthy (7-4, 4.62)
Neftali Perez * (1-0, 1.74)
*Also competing for the 5th spot – Colby Lewis (0-2, 6.45 ’07) – Matt Harrison (4-5, 6.11) – Derek Holland (8-13, 6.12)

Closer – Frank Francisco (2-3, 2.83, 25 SV)

Prospect’s worth noting:
1. Neftali Perez -  21 years-old – Flame thrower who is expected to start in the ML rotation in the beginning of the season, yet some are reporting he will be in the bullpen
2. Justin Smoak – 23 years-old – Apparently he is hot on Chris Davis’ trails. While Davis did enjoy a strong second half to last season, expect Smoak to get an opportunity if Davis’ struggles during any stretch during the season.

2. Seattle Mariners

The last time the Mariners made the playoffs was 2001 but in 2010 they have one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee have the baseball world buzzing but there still remain questions about their playoff hopes.

Both Hernandez and Lee at the top of a rotation is any baseball fans dream for their team. Lee, a free agent at season’s end, shined in the playoff last year going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies and won the 2008 AL Cy Young. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in MLB and won 19 games last season. Look for him to be near the top of the 2010 AL Cy Young voting.

Erik Bedard is coming off surgery last August to repair torn labrum (gulp), as well as an inflamed bursa, as well as a bruised ego. It looks as if May is a reasonable time table for Bedard’s possible return but he is coming off a horrible 2009 season where he only started 15 games and pitched 83 innings.

David Aardsma had a breakout 2009 season as the Mariners closer posting a 2.52 ERA with 80 strikeouts over 71.1 innings, racking up 38 saves. Yet Aardsma is not a guy you want on the mound in the 9th inning of a close game if you’re at risk of a heart attack because out of 145 qualified relievers, Aardsma had the 39th highest BB/9 ratio.

Mark Lowe, (2-7, 3.26 ERA, in 75 games), Brandon League (3-6, 4.58 ERA, in 67 games), and Shawn Kelley (5-4, 4.50 ERA, in 41 games) were solid in 2009, but there is no guarantee this reliability stays.

New addition Chone Figgins (.298 BA, 42 SB, 114 R, 54 RBI in 2009) will get on base and score runs, something that has been lacking in Seattle and Ichiro can be described simply as a hitting machine. Ken Griffey, Jr. will battle time as he tries to stay healthy.

Three players that Mariners fans will be watching are Jose Lopez batted .272, was second on the team with 25 homers, and a team high 96 RBIs in 2009, yet was the subject of trade rumors all off-season.
Centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, entering only his third full major-league season, expects bigger things in 2010, especially now that sore knees that plagued him throughout last season appear to have healed.

Projected 2010 Lineup:
Ichiro – RF (.352, 26 SB, 46 RBI)
Chone Figgins – 3B (.298, 42 SB, 54 RBI)
Milton Bradley – LF (.257, 12 HR, 40 RBI)
Jose Lopez – 2B (.272, 25 HR, 96 RBI)
Franklin Gutierrez – CF (.283, 18 HR, 70 RBI)
Ken Griffey Jr. – DH (.214, 19 HR, 57 RBI)
Casey Kotchman – 1B (.268, 7 HR, 48 RBI)
Jack Wilson – SS (.255, 5 HR, 39 RBI)
Rob Johnson – C (.213, 2 HR, 27 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Felix Hernandez (19-5, 2.49)
Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (5-4, 3.74)
Ian Snell (7-10, 4.84)
Doug Fister (3-4, 4.13)
Closer – David Aardsma (3-6, 2.52, 38 SV)

Prospects worth noting:
Dustin Ackley – 22 years old – OF with a potential move to 2B? – You might remember Ackley as the kid from North Carolina who was drafted 2nd overall to Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 MLB Draft. He still has not signed, however, so the Mariners priorities have to lie with getting that done soon.
Michael Saunders – 23 years old – OF – a power hitter who could see time in the bigs this season if Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes or Ryan Garko fail in some way.

3. Los Angeles Angels

This won’t be the same Angels team baseball fans have become accustomed to – John Lackey (eight seasons), Vladimir Guerrero (six seasons), and Chone Figgins (eight seasons) are all gone, and Guerrero (Texas) and Figgins (Seattle) both stayed in the division. They will certainly be looking to prove something every time they face their old teams.

Despite the loss of Lackey, the Angels, rotation looks solid. Jered Weaver is the most likely replacement to take over Lackey’s spot as the Angel’s ace. Weaver has tremendous stuff, but can he handle being the ace? Weaver must prove last year wasn’t a fluke when he went 16-8 and also had four complete games and two shutouts.

Weaver will be followed in the rotation by Ervin Santana (8-8 5.03), Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60), Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89), Joel Piniero (15-12, 3.49), and on paper, this looks like one of the best rotations in baseball.

While Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins both found new teams to play for in the AL West, the Angels went out and signed 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, a viable replacement at DH for Guerrero.

Figgins had always set the tone for the Angels lineup and now he’s gone, and leaves a big hole at third. Brandon Wood (.192 BA in 86 games over 3 years) has gotten more chances than Tom Sizemore and again gets his shot in 2010.

The bullpen starts and ends with LHP Brian Fuentes (1-5, 48 SV) and the Angels acquired Fernando Rodney (2-5, 37 SV, 1.47) this off-season, not a headline move but will prove to be important.

Too much talent left town, and not enough came into town. Revenge will play a big role, as the Angels will compete, but will eventually come up short.

Angels Projected Lineup:
Erick Aybar – SS (.312, 5 HR, 58 RBI)
Bobby Abreu – RF (.293, 15 HR, 103 RBI)
Torii Hunter – CF (.299, 22 HR, 90 RBI)
Hideki Matsui – DH (.274, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
Kendry Morales – 1B (.306, 34 HR, 108 RBI)
Juan Rivera – LF (.287, 25 HR, 88 RBI)
Howie Kendrick – 2B (.291, 10 HR, 61 RBI)
Mike Napoli – C (.272, 20 HR, 56 RBI)
Brandon Wood – 3B (.195, 1 HR, 3 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.75)
Ervin Santana (8-8, 5.03
Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89)
Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60)
Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49)
Closer – Brian Fuentes (1-5, 3.93, 48 SV)

Some prospects you could hear about before the season is over –
Hank Conger – 22 years old – Catcher – Will start season in AA
Peter Bourjos – 23 years old – Centerfielder – If Torii Hunter goes down with an injury expect this speedster to get a call to the big leagues

4. Oakland Athletics

We rarely question Billy Beane, yet its tough to see what his plan is in Oakland. They have a lot of talented young players (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey, and Vin Mazzaro) and I’m sure will look to continue to trade their older talent for some more youth.

Ben Sheets is a question mark, but might be worth the gamble. Sheets has battled injuries in Milwaukee, sitting out all of last year due to injury and a myriad of DL appearances in his career. Yet, when healthy, Sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Signing him seems like a sign and trade at the deadline much like they did with Matt Holliday. 

If the A’s have one strength heading into the 2010 season, and it is their bullpen. Led by AL ROY, Andrew Bailey (26 SV, 1.84 ERA) the A’s bullpen is absolutely phenomenal. Guys like Michael Wuertz (2.63 ERA), Brad Ziegler (3.07 ERA), Craig Breslow (3.36 ERA) and Joey Devine (0.50 ERA in 2008) make the A’s bullpen a nightmare for opposing offenses.

The Athletics lineup will not produce a lot of runs, but they should remain competitive. This young team is just that, young, and they are getting playing experience, which will only help this team down the road.

Athletics Projected Lineup:
Rajai Davis – LF (.305, 41 SB 48 RBI)
CoCo Crisp – CF (.228, 13 SB, 14 RBI)
Kurt Suzuki – C (.274, 15 HR, 88 RBI)
Jack Cust – DH (.240, 25 HR, 70 RBI)
Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3B (.255, 18 HR, 88 RBI)
Ryan Sweeney – RF (.293, 6 HR 53 RBI)
Mark Ellis – 2B (.263, 10 HR 61 RBI)
Daric Barton – 1B (.269, 3 HR, 24 RBI)
Cliff Pennington – SS (.279, 4 HR, 21 RBI)

Pitching Staff
Ben Sheets (13-9, 3.09 ’08)
Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.54 ’08)
Dallas Braden (8-9, 3.89)
Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06)
Trevor Cahill (10-13, 4.63)
Closer – Andrew Bailey (6-3, 1.84, 26 SV)

Some prospects you could hear about before the season if over –
Michael Taylor– 24 years old – LF – Could make the team out of spring training
Chris Carter – 22 years old – 1B – Powerful hitter, average defender, ROY candidate

@JayMaguire

Has A-Rod completely returned from the steroid stigma?

I wonder if Alex Rodriguez was watching the Tiger Woods staged reading Friday Morning. It wasn’t too long ago (last year at this time in fact) that A-Rod was the hottest story. He was under the microscope after admitting to taking steroids years ago after signing his mammoth contract from the Texas Rangers. There he was, the best in his sport, endorsement deals and a high profile personal life and he had somehow become a tragic figure.

Oh, what a difference a year makes. This year A-Rod comes into spring training still one of the games best and most dangerous at the dish. Yet this year he brings something else with him: a World Series Ring.

But let’s go back to last year. He had been caught. He had learned from the mistakes of those that faced questions before him. He told the truth. Okay, not really told the truth as there was hole after hole in his story. But he owned up to the root of the story. He had made a mistake and disgraced himself and the game that paid him. He was honest and sincere in his apology. Or at least he made us believe him.

After a lengthy stint on the DL, Rodriguez came back to the Yankees and not only provided them with the protection they needed in their lineup, but he came back with a different attitude. Gone were the scripted answers that made Alex hard to hate but not easy to like. This Alex was different. He wasn’t playing to be wers and the boring clic perfect. He wasn’t playing to appease the media and meet the expectations of his image. He was human now. He was flawed. That was his image.

And it showed for him in the time it mattered most: the postseason. No one had been beat up more than Alex Rodriguez for his shortcomings in the postseason. People forget how Roger Clemens often didn’t show up in big games and would always seem to hide behind a nagging injury. We forget that Greg Maddux and Barry Bonds were nothing more than average when it was crunch time. Still we gave Rodriguez a beating because no player earned the money he did and with that money came expectations. But A-Rod answered the call by giving us one of the most productive post-seasons in recent memory and doing it with the sports most highly scrutinized team. It seemed as if A-Rod was knew he couldn’t come under more fire than he did seven months earlier.

It’s possible, that now, after the scandal has come and gone and his name will be at the center of every Cooperstown argument for years to come, that Alex Rodriguez is poised to be better than he was before? And it’s possible we have something to do with that. We have finally embraced him. We have forgiven him. We are ready to finally enjoy Alex Rodriguez.

It’s the interesting thing about this country and the people it idolizes, we love to watch people fall just to watch them get back up again. We love redemption as much as we love greatness, if not more so. I think it’s because we can see ourselves in them. We can put the money and the fame aside and see what makes us both human.

What does it mean for A-Rod this season? Good things I presume. He’s still young and in great physical condition. His bat speed looked great in the post-season last year where he hit an astonishing .365. He is part of a fierce lineup with Mark Teixeira hitting beside him and Granderson leading off a potent lineup. And we all see what a clear head can do for a player. I’m not sure that A-Rod wins an MVP this year but I’d put him as a favorite.

But more to the point, A-Rod doesn’t seem to care about MVP’s or public adulation. He seems to care about playing baseball and winning games, the mark of a true champion. And A-Rod has the ring to prove it.

@Mikearta

Does Lou Piniella Make a difference?

If Tony LaRussa bolts St. Louis should anyone care?

If Joe Torre bows out for more free time in the L.A sun, will the world end?

It seems this season we will be keeping a watchful eye on the futures of a few high profile managers, but why do we care? Are baseball managers really that important?

We know that managers have different expectations placed upon them. Joe Girardi is expected to take his team to the World Series. As is Mike Scioscia (Angels), Charlie Manuel (Phillies), and Tony LaRussa (Cardinals). However, we can’t expect Ron Washington (Rangers) and Jim Riggleman (Nationals) to achieve the same thing. But there is one thing every manager is expected to do: win.

Certainly the quantity or quality of their wins differ from team to team but, nonetheless, they should be winning more games than they did the year before. But you can’t put a team’s success or failure to win on a manager.

Take the 2007 Yankees led by Joe Torre. They were a poor team lucky to make it into the playoffs only to get bounced in the first round. This meant the axe for Joe. In comes Joe Girardi and only two years later the New York Yankees win their 27th World Series Ring. What changed? The manager? Yes.

But perhaps something easier to understand the pitching staff in 2007 included Andy Pettitte, Rogers Clemens, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ken Igawa, and Chien-Ming Wang.

In 2009 it was C.C Sabathia, A.J Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, and Andy Pettite. So it looks like you can be successful if you replace two guys of retirement age (Clemens and Mussina) and two starters who were underachievers (Hughes and Igawa) with a Cy Young winner (Sabathia) and a young gun with a proven arm (Burnett). Let’s not forget either that unlike ’07 when Alex Rodriguez hit .267 in the divisional series, A-Rod hit .455 in the ALDS in ‘09.

Point being is that while baseball managers may be valuable to a team, nothing is more valuable than production on the field.

So what do we do with managers who have been recognized as good at their job? Generally speaking: we fire them. Take the winners of Manager of the Year: since 1983 in the American League, only 4 managers have won MOTY and have not gone on to be fired.

There is, as always, a reasonable explanation for their demise and it goes back to the first point: players matter most. Managers don’t. Take Jack McKeon, the beloved 2003 Florida Marlins manager. He took his team from irrelevant to a World Series ring. But 3 seasons later, the man who got so much credit for taking a team to the World Series was stepping down at the end of another disappointing season.

What had changed in that time? Staff ace Josh Beckett was gone. A. J Burnett was gone. Derrick Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, and Juan Pierre had all said goodbye. Once again it comes back to players. It is no wonder why MLB managers get paid an average of 1.3 M, easily the lowest of the three major sports.

Let’s not look at this as an indictment of managers. MLB managers certainly attribute to key decisions and living in Chicago I have seen my fair share of bad managers. We can all also agree that some managers have the right temperament for a particular team. A young team needs a guy who holds them accountable and can also teach. Where as a veteran team might need a manager who just keeps the train moving, so to speak.

So if we can all agree that a MLB manager isn’t all that important to winning, then why fire them at all? The reason is that a manager can contribute to a team’s losing ways far easier than he can help them win.
Moving Pujols to 9th in the lineup and limiting Chris Carpenter to 60 pitches a game would certainly hurt your team. So a manager is fired to give a team a boost. It’s a move done to send a message to others and lets face it: a general manager fires the manager. It’s much easier to for Kenny Williams to say Ozzie Guillen is not a right fit for the ballclub anymore rather than to say that he constructed a bad ballclub, even if everyone knows the latter is true.

But making a change to make a change isn’t the answer either. Moving Riggleman from the Nationals dugout won’t make the team perform better unless the guy that replaces him knows something he doesn’t or is capable of something special. Managers can’t prevent injuries. They can’t prevent slumps at the plate, and they cannot prevent better teams from beating them on most days.

I know this season will have its usual round of MLB Hot Seat and we’ll be watching the futures of Torre and LaRussa, but at the end of the day the only thing worth watching are the players out on the field. They will most certainly make the most difference.

@Mikearta

Big Mac Returns to the Batting Cage

After a few years of staying away from the baseball diamond and clear from cameras, Big Mark McGwire returned to the place that made him famous. Mac only took a few swing off the tee, and is noticeably smaller, but remember “steroids did not make him hit the ball out of the park.”

Whatever that means. Anyways, good to see you swinging again, Mac. It looks like you could hit .200 and knock at least 20 out, right?

The Upton Brothers are ready for a big 2010.

It typically takes years of hard work for a younger brother to finally pass his older brother in talent, but it only takes a few weeks to notice the difference. It did not take long for Justin Upton to pass his older brother Melvin Emmanuel, better known as B.J. (Bossman Junior), talent wise, and once thought of as B.J.’s little brother, these days B.J. is known as Justin’s older brother.

Both were drafted out of high school in Chesapeake, VA, and B.J. graduated high school in 2002 while Justin in 2005. Both were widely known as two of the top prospects in their classes and selected within the top two picks of their respective drafts.

B.J.’s professional career got off to a slow start but five years after being drafted after Bryan Bullington, and ahead of Prince Fielder and Zack Greinke, B.J. went wild in the 2008 playoffs against Boston.

B.J. hit four HR in seven post-season games against the mighty Bo-Sox and the Upton name was here to stay for a long time. Fantasy owners and Tampa Bay management are still holding on to the hope that B.J. can find that stroke again after a dismal 2009 campaign.

Justin was drafted as the No. 1 pick in 2005 and became the youngest player in MLB in 2007 when he came up as a 19 year old. He obviously did not belong in the minor leagues and it only took him one full season to get acclimated to big league pitching.

Last season, younger brother Justin had a monster season, hitting .300, getting on base at a .366 clip, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB, and 84 R; sheesh! Not bad for a 21 year old kid.

Both still young, B.J. will be 26 in August and Justin will turn 23 in August, a lot of progress is still to be made with the brothers. B.J. needs to make more contact and start getting on base more, while the sky is the limit for “little” brother Justin.

Still in his MLB infancy and already an All Star, Justin needs to hone a few big league skills like baserunning, defensive positioning, and even though he had a great hitting season, the kid still does not have a major league approach at the plate!

He might be younger in years but Justin is much more of a physical presence standing at 6’2” 205 lbs., while B.J. is only 170 lbs. at the same height.

B.J. has failed to live up to the expectations after his post-season HR binge (average has dropped the last three seasons and only hit .241 last year), but his brother has picked up the Upton family slack.

They both play different styles; Justin is a monster of a corner outfielder while Bossman Junior is a fleet footed center fielder, and it is a big year for both Uptons.

Joe Madden has never been the biggest fan of B.J. due to his deficiencies in center field and how he does not utilize his speed enough. Sure, he had 42 SB last season, but he hit .241 and got on base only 31% of the time, hence B.J.’s drop in the Tampa lineup. If those numbers do not improve, you could see the older Upton in another uniform by mid-season.

Justin on the other hand is not going anywhere. He will likely be the face of the Diamondback franchise as soon as Brandon Webb hits the road, which should be shortly, and after Justin tore the cover off the ball as a 21 year old last season, comparisons to Ken Griffey, Jr., are not pretentious.

It is a day most older brothers dread their entire lives, but they know it is inevitable, and it happens unexpectedly.

It is when the younger brother takes over as the better player, but what most older brothers forget is, the younger brother was made a better player by their hero, their older brother.

So for all you Justin Upton fans, do not thank Justin, thank his older brother Melvin Emmanuel, AKA B.J.

Matt Anaya
@MatAnaya
@DugoutDoctors

Big Mac is ready for a new start

Mark McGwire reported to Cardinals camp in Jupiter, FLA Thursday and answered a few more softball questions from local reporters. McGwire continued to tell reporters how “sorry” he was and how much he regretted using banned substances during his late 90s home run binge. From the AP:

“It’s something I regret,” McGwire told reporters. “I can’t say I’m sorry enough to everybody in baseball and across America, and whoever watches this great game. “I think people understand how truly sorry I am for what I did.”

Sadly, McGwire contradicted his apology by saying steroids did not make him hit the ball further, it only gave him more at bats.

“Like I’ve said, people are going to have their opinions,” McGwire said. “Listen, it got me the opportunity to get out there and get more at-bats, and I got the chance to play.”

Mac, you are correct, steroids DO help you recover from various injuries, but you are wrong and contradicting your apology when you say they do not help you hit the ball out of the ballpark. You seem to be in denial, and still think you could have made the Hall of Fame with or without the juice.

The facts are you took the juice, played a lot longer than you should have because of the juice, and hit a lot more HR with the juice than you would have without.

McGwire keeps saying how sorry he is for cheating the game, but also says he does not think steroids helped him hit the ball out of the park. So what is he sorry for? Playing in too many games? Huh?!

Steroids add about 100 ft (Doc’s guesstimate) and millions of rotations on the baseball creating an inordinate amount of backspin, therefore making the ball go out of the ballpark nearly every time a 6′5″ 225 pound behemoth hits the sweet spot.

McGwire also said the evolution of his swing helped him hit 70(!) HR and not steroids. LOL.

Big Mac would go on and say how bad he felt for Roger Maris and his family, which again, contradicts his apology, and said he felt he owed it to the Maris family to call them before his steroids admission on national TV. I am still confused on what McGwire is sorry about.

It seems he is very happy with his admission, and happy he cleared his conscious, but the juice rotted his brain because he has no idea what he is sorry for.

“It took a lot to do what I did,” McGwire said. “I spoke the truth. Let’s move on and turn this into a really positive thing.”

I will happily turn it into a positive when you admit steroids made you a better player. Barry Bonds was a HOFer before he used steroids, but you were not.

Sidenote: Another creepy/forgotten fact in this mess is Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa’s role in the entire steroids era. He managed McGwire twice, Jose Canseco when he was a 40/40 caliber player, and the dozens of other abusers LaRussa would turn his back on all for the price of winning.

Matt Anaya
Twitter @MatAnaya @DugoutDoctors