Top Remaining Free Agent Predictions

Back in October I wrote a speculative piece on the top seven free agents of 2011, and where they might sign. I was right on a couple, and wrong on others (come on, nobody saw Jayson Werth signing with the Nats). Now that the big guns have all signed, we can start looking at the second and third-tier guys who have yet to agree to terms. There was a bit of a logjam going on, but now that Rafael Soriano has signed with the Yanks, and Jim Thome has agreed to go back to the Twins, the pieces will start falling into place. And where will they end up? Here are some guesses:

Manny Ramirez, DH

He’s by no means the player he once was, but Ramirez still carries a lot of value. Never a great fielder, at this age he could really hurt any team that uses him in the field. The teams who are said to be interested in him (Angels, Rays, Blue Jays and Rangers) would use him strictly as a DH and late-innings pinch hitter. Though his power has greatly diminished, he still posted an OBP of .409 in limited play last season. Manny will sign an incentive-laden one-year deal and find a way to contribute. I don’t think anybody in Tampa will complain if Manny takes away at bats from Matt Joyce, so look for him to land there.

Predicted Destination: Tampa Bay Rays

Vladimir Guerrero, DH

Vlad had an amazing first year with the Rangers, posting an OPS+ of 122 in 643 plate appearances (his most since 2007). Like Ramirez, he isn’t going to contribute in the field due to his bad knees, so wherever he signs, it’s going to be as a DH. The Blue Jays could use a talented DH (right now, Edwin Encarnacion seems to be penciled into the spot), but they seem to want a guy who could also handle some 1B or OF. The Rangers are interested as well, but seem to have settled on Michael Young as their new “super utility/DH” player. This, in my mind, paves the way for Vlad to return to the Angels, who have struck out just about everywhere they’ve tried this off-season.

Predicted Destination: Los Angeles Angels

Andruw Jones, OF/DH

One of my favorite discussions is whether Andruw Jones belongs in the Hall of Fame. Now is not the time for that discussion, but keep your eyes peeled for a future article. It feels like Andruw has been around forever, but keep in mind, he’s only 33. And unlike Manny and Vlad, he can help a team out in the field (though he’s nowhere near the dazzling Centerfielder he once was). The Dodgers could be an interesting fit, though I think Jones left a bad taste in their mouths after posting abhorrent numbers in LA a couple years ago. A return to Atlanta is also a possibility, where he could platoon in CF with the left-handed Nate Mclouth. For now, though, it seems the team willing to throw the most money at the Boras client is none other than the New York Yankees. Jones would see some time in CF, more in LF, and spell DH Jorge Posada from time to time. Remember, the former All Star still hits lefties quite well, with a great deal of power.

Predicted Destination: New York Yankees

Johnny Damon, OF/DH

Like Jones, Damon can still play some OF, though he’s not very good out there. I see him as a perfect fit for the Dodgers. They disagree, saying they want a right-handed bat. I was sure Damon would end up back with the Tigers, where he posted an OBP over .350 for the seventh consecutive season. Instead, they handed the LF duties over to Ryan Rayburn and let Damon walk. The Yankees have talked about making him their 4th Outfielder. Though there hasn’t been much buzz around Damon going to the Blue Jays, I think it’s the best possible fit. He could split time between LF, RF and DH. Damon would be the perfect #2 hitter for that lineup, setting the table for guys like Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista to drive him in.

Predicted Destination: Toronto Blue Jays

Carl Pavano, SP

Pavano posted career numbers in 2010, and did it with a mustache. That was good enough to build a buzz around himself, even though he’s just an average pitcher (with a mustache!). Excuse me for not getting excited about a guy whose career WHIP is 1.34. But, the Twins fans embraced him as he pitched seven complete games for them last season (with a mustache!). Talk of him ending up anywhere else is silly, Pavano is sticking around the Twin cities.

Predicted Destination: Minnesota Twins

Brian Fuentes, RP

A guy can make bank after he’s given the title “proven closer,” and that’s just what I expect Fuentes to do. Though he’s now 35, look for the former Rockies and Angels closer to move in on a desperate team and insert himself into the back end of their bullpen. The Diamondbacks are a possibility, as are the Brewers, who hope to compete in 2011. But keep an eye on the Rays who lost their closer Rafael Soriano, as well as their primary set-up men Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit. Fuentes could simply walk up to the Rays and say “uhh, need help?” I’d say that’s enough to get a deal done. They still have money to spend.

Predicted Destination: Tampa Bay Rays

There you have it. If I get half of these right, I’m going to call myself a genius. Expect most of these (if not all) signings to go down in the next two weeks. Teams are going to want to have their rosters sured up well before spring training.

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Top 5 Second Level Free Agents

As free agency opens in baseball we are reminded that there are only a few premium free agents, and fewer teams that have the money to acquire them. We expect Cliff Lee to make the biggest payday and we expect that the Yankees will be willing to break the bank to get him. We know that teams will be opening up the coffers to get Carl Crawford but there are really only one or two teams that will have the resources to sign the hot left fielders.

So what about the rest of baseball? What about the rest of baseball that is looking for an upgrade and doesn’t have the kind of money it would take to sign Lee or Crawford? Who are the value buys in MLB? What are the second level free agents? Let’s take a look at them and see who they are and why your team might be interested in them.

1. Mariano Rivera

It’s almost laughable to put Rivera on this list, but his being a free agent is intriguing more for the Yankees than it is for Rivera. It would be a no brainer to keep the closer if he were 35 or even 39, but 41? 41 is getting long in the tooth and the Yankees could be looking to Yaba to make that step up. Considering how well he threw last year the Yankees will take him but if they decide they go a different direction there will be a ton of teams willing to take a flyer on Rivera.

2. Paul Konerko

Here’s why your team wants him. He plays good defense. It’s overlooked, but if you have watched him the way I have(living in Chicago) you can see that he doesn’t drop a lot and takes care of his position. He’s a big leader in the clubhouse. He’s vocal but not a jerk. He is loved by the fans. He’s coming off the biggest season of his 14 years. He doesn’t have too many years left and he can be streaky but he’s a good buy for a team that has a young kid that is a season or two away from being ready. The smart thinking is you could get a three year deal for him for less than 50 million. He could be a good alternative to the teams that lose out on Adam Dunn.

3. Brandon Webb

Here’s the gamble that could pay off. There is no doubt that when Webb is healthy he’s deadly on the mound. That slider is nasty and he’s an easy bet for 18 wins, maybe more. He’s the problem: he didn’t pitch at all last season so if he’s looking for premium money you might have to pass on him. However, Webb might be smart enough to take a deal that is back loaded and based on making starts. If he can do it then he is a tremendous bet for your team. If he works out he can take a team on the fence into the playoffs.

4. Jon Garland

No, this is not a Chicago biased article, but Garland has real value. He’s a lock to pitch around 200 innings. He is good for 12 to 18 wins a season. He won’t get blown out and he’ll keep you in ballgames. He also has post-season and world season experience which is a plus if you have a team that is playoff bound. He’s a good 4 or 3 starter on a team and he’s only 31. There is no reason a team that is thin in pitching shouldn’t consider bringing him on board.

5. Adam LaRoche

Sure, a .261 batting average isn’t anything that will take the world by storm but 25 home runs and 100 RBI’s is a really good stat for a player that is still in his low 30’s. The thinking is he could give a mid level team that boost they need. He could be a good fit in Chicago or a place that needs stability. He’s not going to be a big contract. You could sign him for roughly 5 years and 60 million.

You don’t have to break the bank for a free agent this winter, once you look past the biggest names there is some real value there.

Top 7 Free Agents of 2011

For the many of us who are hopelessly obsessed with the sport of baseball, the season is never over. Sure, the World Series will end and there won’t be a game of any importance until April of 2011, but that doesn’t stop the most devoted fans from scouring the internet for off-season news. While this is not the most talented crop of Free Agents in recent years, there are some big names worth keeping an eye on. And some teams who feel free agency is the one thing that can turn things around for them in 2011.

Carl Crawford, OF

Considered by most to be the prize free agent of the 2011 class, Crawford is truly the complete player. He’s an excellent fielder, he hits for decent power, gets on base, and uses his blazing speed to wreak havoc on the base paths. Crawford’s versatility can really alter a lineup, as he’s a great fit for the first, second or third spot in the order. Tampa Bay will no longer be able to afford him, but after the numbers he put up in the first half of his career, there’s sure to be an intense bidding war for his services.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Boston Red Sox

Jayson Werth, OF

Likely to be the consolation prize for the losing team in the Crawford bidding, Werth is no slouch. This is his fourth straight season posting an OPS over .850. His above-average power compliments his excellent on-base skills and he is solid at all three outfield positions. Werth blossomed late, and at 31 he’ll likely be looking to sign a contract that will cover most of the second half of his career. With new agent Scott Boras, he’ll likely get it.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Los Angeles Angels

Cliff Lee, SP

The 2008 Cy Young winner is easily the best starting pitcher on the market, and one of the best pitchers in baseball. Back problems slowed him in the second half of this season, but that didn’t stop him from leading the American League in WHIP (1.00) and Complete Games (7). Every team looking for a great starting pitcher will take a look at Lee, and the competition for his services will drive up his price. Keep in mind, he’s owned the Yankees in the last couple years, and you better believe they’ve noticed. What’s the best way to make sure they no longer have to face him?
PREDICTED DESTINATION: New York Yankees

Victor Martinez, C

What makes Martinez such a hot commodity is his position. If he remains behind the plate, he’ll be one of few catchers in the league that has the ability to hit for both power and average. If he’s shifted to First base or DH, his value decreases significantly. Any team is greatly improved when they add a power-hitting catcher to the middle of their lineup, and as usual there are multiple teams looking to fill that need. Boston will make an offer, but it doesn’t seem they are willing to give the number of years other teams will.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Detroit Tigers

Rafael Soriano, RP

After three seasons with the Braves in which he filled multiple relieving roles, Soriano was traded to the Rays where he flourished as a full-time closer. He was 45-for-48 in save opportunities, while posting a WHIP of 0.80 in 64 appearances. There’s no question that Soriano has what it takes to be a great closer –the best closer on the market, in fact– the question is how much money teams are willing to throw at a 30-year-old reliever with a history of arm trouble. He’s another Boras client, and will get paid. The price just may not be what he’s hoping.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Arizona Diamondbacks

Adrian Beltre, 3B

Yet another Scott Boras client (in case you don’t know, or haven’t caught on by now, Boras gets the $$$), Beltre is an interesting Free Agent. There’s no question he was excellent with Boston this season. His .321 Avg. was fourth in the American League and he drove in over 100 runs for a potent Boston offense. But this is not the first time we have seen this from Beltre in a contract year. After posting a staggering 1.017 OPS for the Dodgers in 2004, he signed a massive contract with the Mariners only to see his OPS drop over .300 points. There’s no promising he’ll have another strong year at the plate. Regardless, he remains a gold-glove defender and will continue to make great money.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Boston Red Sox

Adam Dunn, 1B/OF/DH

Adam Dunn wants to remain in the field. Problem is, nobody else seems to want him there. Dunn is an incredibly gifted power hitter whose high strikeout rate is negated by his ability to walk and reach base (.381 career OBP). The big knock on Dunn is his defense, which is not pretty, regardless of where you put him (The Reds preferred LF, the Nationals tried 1B). Dunn has said he does not want to be a Designated Hitter, but once he sees where the contract offers are coming from, I think we’ll see him change his mind.
PREDICTED DESTINATION: Detroit Tigers

We can speculate all we want, but it won’t be until December when the fun bidding gets underway and we really get to see how things shake out. If you’re surprised to see Detroit on this list twice, keep in mind they have over $70 million coming off the books and they’ll be looking to put together a powerhouse.

So forget about all that boring playoff stuff, baseball fans, and get ready for the offseason.

Top 5 Low and High Risk Free Agent Starting Pitchers

The market for starting pitchers is perhaps the most interesting, and arguably the most important market heading into any offseason. While casual baseball fans were given a crash course on Type A and B free agents last year, as there were some very high-profile free agents leaving mid-budget teams, they received the most in-depth lesson from the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers entered the 2008 offseason with CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets both entering free agency.

But in both circumstances, the Brewers were forced to accept lesser compensation, none in the case of Sheets, as he didn’t sign a contract last year. Sabathia signed with the Yankees, who took a wholesale approach in an uncertain economy, locking up Sabathia, and fellow Type A free agents Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Teixeira ranked highest among Type A free agents, and rather than receiving the Yankees’ top pick, the Brewers had to settle for their second-rounder. Not many teams have the financial wherewithal to absorb three large, long-term contracts, receiving effectively a compensation discount, albeit one that came with a half-billion dollar price tag.

That wasn’t the only story last offseason. Reclamation projects like John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Pedro Martinez, and Brady Penny littered the rumor mills, and each pitched to a varying degree of success in their attempt to reclaim past glory. All while a left-handed fire-baller, Oliver Perez, was paraded around the country with super-agent Scott Boras’ hyperbole leading to one of the largest contracts of the offseason.

That stated, as most of the reclamation projects of last year signed on year deals, and with a few additions to that list, starting pitchers will receive two categories: Low Risk and High Risk, in reference to their arms.

Low Risk

1. John Lackey, 31 years old

No surprise, almost every credible media outlet has Lackey atop their list of starting pitcher free agents. Lackey became famous for his World Series Game seven start in his rookie season. He’s since turned into a really good pitcher.

Lackey will come with a price tag likely higher than $100 million, and while he’s the best pitcher available, there are some signs of decline in his production. He hasn’t reached 200 innings in each of the past two seasons, and is on the wrong side of 30 years old.

2. Randy Wolf, 33 years old

One pitcher is 31 years old, one is 33 years old. One pitcher pitched 176.1 innings last season at a 3.83 ERA, the other pitched 214.1 innings at a 3.23 ERA last season. To avoid undue suspense, the better of the two was Wolf.

The two biggest things Wolf has going against him, apart from he and Lackey’s injury concerns, are that he’s pitched his whole career in the National League, which will cause concern for some American League GMs, and that he had his best season in some time, as he’s struggled in recent seasons. However, Wolf will likely sign a far shorter contract than Lackey, at a much lower annual salary.

3. Joel Pineiro, 31 years old

Pineiro comes from a long line of pitchers who owe their career-threatening injuries to former Mariners pitching coach Brian Price. Price coached several Mariners pitchers—now injury-prone pitchers—to throw sliders at higher frequency, and different, more detrimental sliders.

In Pineiro’s last season with the Mariners he threw his slider more than 20 percent of the time. He blew out his elbow, but has since revived his career. Last season he threw his fastball a career-high 71 percent of the time, and his slider 12.4 percent of the time, the lowest since 2003, when he pitched 211 innings at a 3.83 ERA. Pineiro learned a two-seam fastball that has allowed him to throw his fastball more often, and more effectively (Groundball percentage: a career-high 60.5 percent).

4. Vicente Padilla, 32 years old

The biggest concern with Padilla is his alleged poor clubhouse presence. However, he set the NL West on fire when he was picked up by the Dodgers, and has had a lot of success in the National League throughout a career that became productive in Philadelphia.

Padilla struggled before exiting the National League, and continued to struggle in Texas. Arlington has done-in better pitchers than Padilla, as it’s a hitter’s haven. As a Dodger though, he went 4-0 in 39.1 innings, with a 3.20 ERA spread over eight appearances (seven starts), struck out 39 and had a 1.220 WHIP.

5. Jarrod Washburn, 35 years old

Washburn, with the help of perhaps the best defensive outfield in baseball, had an excellent first half. The same guy who the Mariners had tried to give away as the 2008 trade deadline approached suddenly had some value, and the team was able to acquire his essential clone in Luke French.

However, things went south for Washburn away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field, and an outfield that included Ichiro Suzuki, Franklin Gutierrez and a combination of rangy left fielders. Buyers should beware of Washburn, but teams with large outfields and rangy outfielders may be able to recreate his first half success.

High Risk

1. Rich Harden, 28 years old

Apart from Aroldis Chapman, Harden is the youngest pitcher on this list. He’s a flame-thrower with a career K/9 ratio of 9.35. In the past two seasons, Harden has posted 11.01 and 10.91 K/9, respectively, in a combined 289 innings pitched and 51 starts.

The risk with Harden, however, is his propensity for injury. From 2006 to 2007, Harden pitched only 16 games at the major league level, starting 12. He averages less than six innings per start for his career, but has really struggled to reach the sixth inning the past two seasons. He pitches too cautiously in almost every outing, but his stuff makes him the free agent with by far the highest ceiling.

2. Brad Penny, 32 years old

Penny’s alleged “injury history” is far overblown. While he pitched only 19 games in 2008, he did so as a result of shoulder tendonitis, not structural damage. Furthermore, in 2009 Penny actually set a career-high for average fastball velocity (94.0 miles-per-hour).

Penny struggled at the start of 2009, then a member of the Boston Red Sox, but after his release he found success in San Francisco. The two home ballparks are fundamental opposites, and Penny’s skill set is much better in San Francisco or a ballpark similar to AT&T Park, than it is in Fenway.

3. Ben Sheets, 31 years old

Early in Sheets career, it appeared he was ready to be one of the league’s top workhorses. He pitched 200 or more innings in each of the three seasons after his rookie season, including a 2004 season when, were it not for the poor Brewers team he played on, Sheets could have made a strong argument for Cy Young Award candidacy (he finished eighth in the voting).

Injuries derailed his workhorse status. His most recent injury, a flexor tendon tear at the end of 2008, kept him out of the entire 2009 season. However, with almost a year-and-a-half off from pitching, Sheets figures to be at full capacity at some point in the 2010 season, as elbow injuries usually require a year of rehab for a return to the game, and another year to return to form.

4. Justin Duchscherer, 32 years old

At one point in 2008, Duchscherer and Cliff Lee were in a close race for the American League Cy Young Award. Duchscherer would suffer an injury, though remain effective, but Lee would go on to post one of the best seasons in history (only to be topped by Zach Greinke in 2009).

Duchscherer has become the “Oh Yeah, I remember him” guy, as several other injured pitchers litter the free agent market. However, Duchscherer was supposed to pitch in 2009, and would have were it not for his diagnosis of clinical depression. Duchscherer’s physical health is presumably adequate, but his mental health will play a large factor in his signing or lack thereof.

5. Aroldis Chapman, 22 years old

Chapman is arguably the most revered Cuban free agent to defect, and come to America since the Cuban Trade Embargo of 1962. He has an electric arm, reportedly reaching triple-digits with his fastball, and is developing off-speed pitches from the left-hand side.

However, Chapman’s contract may be too large for many teams, and many scouts question the impressive lefty’s mechanics. The real question regarding Chapman is this: When it comes to mechanically unsound lefties, is he Randy Johnson or Oliver Perez, and on the injury spectrum, is he Johan Santana or Francisco Liriano?

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

Top 10 Free Agent Outfielders

Outfielders, as in many years, offer the most diverse market. The reason outfielders tend to end up as free agents more often, is that typically it is hard to find a combination of average to above-average offense and good defense, and vice versa. For example, Jason Bay is an above average offensive player, but an awful defender. He’s best suited as a DH, as it’s tough for outfielders to make the transition from catching fly balls to fielding grounders, but his value lies in the fact that he’s not a complete embarrassment in the outfield.

Bobby Abreu and Vladimir Guerrero, both already listed as designated hitters, were notable exceptions to that rule, but each has regressed to a far lesser defender than they were in past years (especially Guerrero). Matt Holliday may figure to sign the biggest contract of the offseason, especially considering he’s under the guidance of “super-agent” Scott Boras, who seems to have recovered nicely from an embarrassing offseason a few years ago representing Alex Rodriguez.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Matt Holliday, 30 years old

Holliday is the unquestioned top free agent outfielder, but he’ll come at a price. The St. Louis Cardinals, who traded their top-prospect Brett Wallace to acquire Holliday in July, have already discussed a contract with Holliday worth a reported $96 million over six years. But in true Boras form, he’s brainwashed a top client that he’s worth what the last, usually-better client Boras represented got, in this case Mark Teixeira.

The chances of Holliday matching Teixeira’s eight year, $180 million deal are slim, but a deal over $100 million is almost a certainty. Jason Bay reportedly declined a four year, $60 million offer from the Red Sox, and Holliday’s a better hitter and fielder than Bay.

2. Jason Bay, 31 years old

As previously discussed, Bay is a butcher in the outfield. However, his .236 and .269 ISO in the past two respective seasons bear mentioning. Bay’s the best pure hitter apart from Holliday on the market, though Holliday is probably better all-around at the plate, and clearly in the field.

The best thing that Bay has going for him above Holliday is that he’s excelled in the American League. Holliday posted respectable numbers in a short time in Oakland, but certainly will draw some doubts for American League general managers.

3. Mike Cameron, 37 years old

Want an outfielder who has posted an ISO over .200 for two straight years, walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances, and posts a UZR/150 over 10 in each of the past two seasons in center field? Cameron’s your guy.

Obviously, Cameron’s advanced age is worrisome, and probably will prevent him from signing a contract longer than two years. However, Cameron’s one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, even in his mid-30s, and still hits the ball hard—when he makes contact that is.

4. Randy Winn, 36 years old

Winn is the first outfielder on the list who hits from the left hand side, which bumps him up a few spots. He’s an adequate hitter, though his adequate power was far below average in 2009. He hit .292/.354/.397 against righties in 2009, and hits .289/.348/.417 for his career against righties.

Winn’s true value though, is on defense. Despite his age, he plays an adequate center field and is an excellent corner outfielder.

5. Marcus Thames, 33 years old

Last year’s bargain basement free agent coup was Russell Branyan. Branyan was a top prospect who never quite stuck at the big league level. He had great power, but holes in his swing, significant flaws, and was a pretty crappy fielder at his natural position. If there were ever a right-handed clone, Marcus Thames is it.

The most plate appearances Thames has ever had in a season is 390, but over the course of his 1749 big league trips to the plate, he’s posted a .248 ISO. Thames strikes out a ton though, he only walks at about a league-average clip, but his 12.7 HR/FB percentage was almost five percent higher than league average, but also almost four percent lower than his career average. Look for Thames to bounce back if he’s given enough playing time to ride the highs and lows of luck on a team with a solid center fielder who can hide some of Thames’ defensive inadequacies.

6. Rick Ankiel, 30 years old

Ankiel has fallen from a household name, after transforming himself from a pitcher to a power-hitting outfielder, to just another player in a long line of performance enhancing drug users. He’s struggled mightily at the plate since admitting to using HGH, and teams will be cautious as a result.

However, he hits very well against right-handed pitchers, and can probably play a respectable corner-outifield, though his days in center may be over.

7. Coco Crisp, 30 years old

Crisp is a player who many expected to be much better than he is, something like a 2000s version of Jose Cruz Jr. Crisp seemed to prove correct his supporters in 2005, hitting .300/.345/.465 with 16 home runs and 42 doubles, but hasn’t managed to approach any of those numbers since a trade to Boston in 2006, and a subsequent trade to Kansas City in 2009.

Crisp plays great defense. He’s a good center fielder, but a tremendous left fielder, and coming off a labrum tear he’s probably best suited in left in 2010. Interestingly, Crisp walked 13.5 percent of his plate appearances in his one abbreviated season with Kansas City compared to his 7.5 percent career average. That helped to supplement his struggles at the plate, but was it a product of maturation, or of being one of the better hitters in a pretty bad lineup?

8. Marlon Byrd, 32 years old

Byrd is going to be overpaid. A lot has been made of the outfielder’s solid 2009 season, mainly perhaps, because of his imminent departure from Texas, where he’d probably like to play, and a team that would probably like him back, but finances, and a pending team sale will dictate otherwise.

But 14 of his 20 home runs came in the hitter’s heaven that is the Ballpark at Arlington. Byrd figures to drop off in nearly every other ballpark in baseball, and he’s probably the fifth best defensive centerfielder in a free agent market that doesn’t have a lot of demand at the position.

9. Jermaine Dye, 36 years old

Jermaine Dye is like the Chevrolet 2.8 liter V-6 engine (this just got personal). It doesn’t have as much power as it should, it gets bad gas mileage, and has more problems than it’s worth.

Dye is going to get a contract worth more than his production, based simply on name value.

Sure, he’s hit over 25 home runs in each of the past five seasons, but that alone doesn’t make up for a pretty wide array of flaws: his bat is declining, he doesn’t walk, and he’s had at least a -21.4 UZR/150 in each of the last four seasons in right field.

10. Jeff Fiorentino, 27 years old

If only by product of age, Fiorentino makes the list. There aren’t a lot of teams out there looking for center fielders, but Fiorentino won’t embarrass a team in the field. However, the most intriguing aspect about Fiorentino, and what puts him on the list, is his potential offensive production.

Fiorentino hasn’t been awful at the plate in limited time in the big leagues. A small sample size in the bigs has Fiorentino at a .270/.341/.324 clip in the majors, and a 24.1 UZR/150 in 58 games. But he hit .312/.387/.510 in AAA last year.

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

Current Free Agents at SS

It’s been quite some time since the the first wave of Cal Ripken deciples made up a trio of the league’s elite shortstops. Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter now play together, with Rodriguez moving to third base (though a swap would probably improve the Yankees left side). Nomar Garciaparra has battled wrist injuries and become a designated-hitter option as a free agent this year. But Miguel Tejada also won an MVP at the position, and is a free agent this year, though he’ll likely have to move to third base this season.

Since the beginning of steroid testing, however, the middle infield positions have devolved back to where they were pre-Ripken. Now, much of a player’s value in the middle infield is predicated on his defense, and power-hitting middle-infielders are much harder to come by.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

Alex Gonzalez, 32 years old

After missing all of 2008 with a knee injury, Gonzalez bounced back respectably in 2009. Lateral movement is always a concern when evaluating knee-injury-recovery, and Gonzalez the 10.5 UZR/150 in 2009, which he spent in Cincinnati and Boston, certainly should quiet some doubters. He also displayed some power in the American League, hitting five of his eight homeruns in Boston, where he played only 44 games, but posting a .284/.316/.453 line.

Gonzalez has shown power through his career. In 2007, his last full season prior to 2009, saw him hit 16 home runs and post a .196 ISO. He played in Cincinnati, whose home park is a launching pad for mediocre power hitters, but also hit 23 home runs in 2004 when he played for the Florida Marlins, who play in a more pitcher-friendly park.

Orlando Cabrera, 35 years old

A lot has been—and probably will continue to be—made of Marco Scutaro’s impressive 2009 season. But his .282/.389/.409 line is only a tick better than Cabrera’s .284/.316/.389 line in 2009. But while Scutaro, once a jack-of-no-trades in the infield seems to have found a spot at shortstop, he’s only an average defender at the position, while Cabrera has boasted several very good seasons at shortstop (his -13.7 UZR/150 in 2009 appears flukey).

And while Cabrera has been around the league a long time, and is known by most casual fans, at least better known that Scutaro, he’s less than a year older than Scutaro.

Marco Scutaro, 34 years old

Scutaro has always been a stalky guy who swung hard. Watching him play for a week would lead most to believe that he was a power hitter in a slump, but instead he’s a guy who is simply only an average hitter. He’s something akin to a pre-alledged-steroid-use Brett Boone.

That said, as an average defender and a guy who walks a lot (90 times in 2009), and also in a baseball landscape presently starving for offensive talent at shortstop, Scutaro has a significant market. He’ll improve somebody, somewhere, as long as he can stick at short.

Craig Counsell, 39 years old

At 38 years old, Counsell posted one of his the most complete offensive seasons he’s ever had. His .285/.357/.408 line in 130 games, paired with solid defense and nearly-unparalleled versatility make Counsell a valuable free agent heading into 2010.

He walks enough, but will never be mistaken for a power hitter. However, his ability to play at a high level at shortstop, second base, and third base, while hitting from the left hand side, will make him an attractive target for some teams.

Khalil Greene, 30 years old

Green is really only on this list because of his age, he’s the youngest legitimate starting candidate among free agent shortstops, and his unrealized potential. Greene posted a .214 ISO in 2007, and looked to be headed towards the echelon of elite shortstops.

He’s hit only 16 homeruns since, including six in a one-year stint with the St. Louis Cardinals, but has resided barely north of the Mendoza line for the past two seasons. He’s also seen his defense recede considerably according to UZR, and it was only average before.



Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: 3B

Third basemen make up another fruitful class of free agents, perhaps the most fruitful of the entire 2009 class. The trade market for third baseman is also pretty bare, which should add intrigue, as most of the trade candidates have at least one serious flaw: Mike Lowell (injury-prone), Kevin Kouzmanoff (has gotten worse at the plate, doesn’t walk), and Andy Marte (doesn’t do anything well) for example.

Last year, in an uncertain economic climate (that has turned into a crappy economy, but arguably non-disastrous), only Casey Blake signed a multi-year contract to play third base. The class in question though, had Joe Crede, Aaron Boone, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Mark Loretta battling for second-best at the position.

This year’s class is significantly better.

There should be at least two or three players signed to multi-year deals, and in all likelihood, at least a player or two will opt for a short term contract with eyes on future earnings.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Chone Figgins, 32 years old

Had Figgins been projected as a Type A free agent, there’s a strong possibility he’d have slid down this list. While he’s a fine player, his versatility has been overstated. He’s played games at several positions, but fields poorly at all but third base according to UZR.

However, what has gone more overstated than Figgins versatility is the lumping of third base into the “corner infielder” category when projecting offensive production. There simply aren’t many good offensive third basemen, and frankly, Figgins .298/.363/.388 line from 2008 would be an improvement on many clubs, not to mention Figgins stole 42 bases and walked 101 times in 2009.

2. Mark DeRosa, 35 years old

DeRosa is something of an enigma to educated baseball fans. He’s a below-average fielder at every position but right field (where UZR shows he’s outstanding over 1193.1 innings), but gets added value as a utility guy. The only reason he’s listed as a third-baseman in this column is because he’s probably going to play infield wherever he goes, and he’s least-crappy at third.

One thing that DeRosa does well though, is to find a way to produce at the plate. In 2006, playing for the Rangers in the hitter friendly confines in Arlington, DeRosa didn’t hit a lot of homeruns, but managed 40 doubles. The following year with the Cubs, he upped his walk total, despite decreased power numbers. In 2008, arguably his breakout season, DeRosa managed 21 homers, 69 walks, and 30 doubles for a .285/.376/.481 line. Then, in slightly-reduced at-bats this season, he set a career-high for home runs (23), despite hitting only .250/.319/.433.

3. Adrian Beltre, 31 years old

Beltre is one of the hardest free agents to project. He’s relatively young, coming off of a monster contract, and could be looking to cash in now, for less, or play outside of Seattle for a season, produce offensively, and cash in bigger next offseason. While his 2004 season, (48 home runs, second in MVP voting) has come under scrutiny since steroid suspicion was legitimized, Beltre also played in perhaps the worst possible offensive fit for his skillset (Safeco Field).

Regardless of his offensive prowess or lack thereof, Beltre has arguably the best glove in the game at the hot corner. His career 13.3 UZR/150 has only faltered in one season (2007), when he posted a -3.4 UZR/150.

4. Miguel Tejada, 36 years old

Tejada has transformed from the underrated odd-man-out in a trio of young, offensively-gifted shortstops (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra) to one of only two remaining from the list still at the position, Jeter being the other. Unfortunately, like Jeter, Tejada should have been moved off of shortstop a long time ago.

Though Tejada posted a positive UZR in 2008, it was sandwiched between some pretty average to below-average seasons at the position, which culminated in an awful -13.5 UZR in 2009. Still, his 46 doubles and .313 average would look good in a lot of lineups, and while he’s never played third base in the majors (16,097.2 innings at shortstop), the ultra-durable Tejada should be fine there. Tejada will probably be a Type A free agent though.

5. Joe Crede, 32 years old

Crede is perhaps the most accurate embodiment of what third basemen used to be. He hits for power, but doesn’t walk, strikes out a lot, and doesn’t hit for high average. He’s also got a glove that can’t justify a move to first base, and a body that can’t handle the rigors of third base.

From 2003-2006 Crede played in 151, 144, 132, and 150 games. His best season at the plate was 2006, but a lot has gone wrong since then. Crede has battled back injuries since then, and has played 47, 97, and 90 games in the three seasons since then. When he’s healthy he’s arguably a top tier third baseman, but he hasn’t been healthy for three seasons.

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: 1B

There aren’t many top first basemen available this year. Last year’s free agent class was led by Mark Teixeira, who was the top free agent according to the Elias rankings that determine pick compensation allocation for teams which sign multiple Type A free agents. Teixeira’s new team, the Yankees, signed three: Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

The two former free agents are unmatched in this year’s class. This year’s class will be defined, for better or worse, by reclamation projects. Russell Branyan and Carlos Delgado have already been listed under the designated hitter category for free agents.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Adam LaRoche, 30 years old

For a guy who boasts career numbers of .274/.343/.491, LaRoche moved around a lot last season. After being traded to the Pirates in a deal that brought Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge to Atlanta, LaRoche played two seasons with the Pirates before being dealt to the Red Sox, and eventually back to the Braves.

Upon his return to Atlanta, LaRoche caught fire. In the 57 games he played with the Braves this year he hit .325/.401/.557 in 212 plate appearances, and hit pretty well in the pitcher-friendly confines of Turner Field for all of 2009. LaRoche is an average defensive first baseman, so he isn’t an embarrassment at the position.

2. Nick Johnson, 31 years old

Johnson has been a tease since entering the majors. Once a top prospect with the Yankees, projected as a power hitter who would walk a ton, Johnson has only fulfilled on the latter description. At 6-3, 236 lbs, a .114 ISO would generally disqualify a first baseman from contention for any type of free agent haul.

But Johnson is two years removed from a season where he hit 46 doubles, 23 home runs, and walked 110 times in 628 plate appearances. In 2008 his season was shortened by injury, but if counted, he’s posted an OBP over .400 for four straight seasons. Health is the biggest concern for Johnson, but when healthy, he plays a pretty good first base also.

3. Hank Blalock, 29 years old

Once a third baseman, Blalock has fallen victim to a common issue that plagues third basemen, his body has started to break down. Blalock was a tremendous offensive third baseman, boasting a .269/.329/.465 line for his career from the left-handed batter’s box.

But in the past three seasons Blalock has missed 240 of a possible 486 games. He played only one game at third base in 2009, and hasn’t played more than 39 games at the position since 2006, when he played 122 games. In 1005 plate appearances in those three seasons though, he’s posted an ISO over .220 each season.

4. Aubrey Huff, 33 years old

In the three years Huff has spent in Baltimore, he’s sandwiched one really great year between two pretty nondescript years. His .304/.360/.552 line in 2008 was pretty stellar, the other two years are considerably worse. Huff has only had one other season comparable to his 2008 season, his 2004 season with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays when he was 27 years old.

But while years will certainly rob Huff of some of his lateral range and fielding ability, there could be reason to believe that he can still improve at first base. Huff was originally a third baseman, and saw his most action in a single season this year at the position. Even if he can’t stick at first, he’s a good buy-low designated hitter candidate on a short-term contract.

5. Eric Hinske, 32 years old

Like Huff and Blalock, Hinske came to the majors as a third baseman. But despite winning the Rookie of the Year award at the position in 2002 with the Toronto Blue Jays. He played over 1,000 innings at third in each of his first three seasons, and hasn’t played more than 265 since.

However, Hinske has a positive UZR/150 at first base in 1,366.2 career innings, and when given significant plate appearances, is generally an acceptable hitter. In all but one season (2004) when Hinske has posted an ISO over .190, and over .200 in two of those seasons.

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: 2B

The market for second baseman in the offseason is one of the few that have significantly more supply than demand. Last season, players like Orlando Hudson entered the offseason expecting a major pay raise, and didn’t get it because the economy caused several free agents to remain unsigned for most of the offseason.

Hudson is back on the free agent market, and though he had a strong season in Los Angeles, proving he can hit in both leagues, his declining defense and a strong second base market could leave him as the odd man out once again when it comes to cashing in on a long-term contract.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Felipe Lopez, 30 years old

Lopez leads the pack of three pretty similar second basemen. Lopez, Placido Palanco and Orlando Hudson all batted around .300 last year, slugged around .400, and walked some. Each homered around 10 times last year, hit 30-something doubles, and hit a few triples. Lopez and Hudson are switch hitters, and Polanco has proven to be a productive American League hitter from the right side.

But Lopez is the top second baseman free agent for two very important reasons. He’s only a Type B free agent, and he’s younger than both Polanco and Hudson. Not every scout in the world loves Lopez’s defense, but his 5.6 UZR/150 in 2009 is impressive. Perhaps the most problematic blemish on Lopez’s resume is that since making his debut in 2002, he’s played for six different teams, and there could be a reason.

2. Placido Polanco, 34 years old

Is Polanco on the decline? Sure. He’ll be 34 years old next season, and decline is normal in a player’s mid-30s. But even at an advanced age, Polanco managed to put up a .285/.331/.396 line last season. Top it off with an 8.5 UZR/150 at second base, and Polanco’s decline is easier to swallow and tough to legitimize.

However, Polanco is a Type A free agent, in the middle of the Autumn of his career, and probably doesn’t want to play for a team that isn’t ready to contend in 2010. That means that the compensation surrendered for Polanco will likely be a first round pick, which increases the chances that Polanco returns to Detroit.

3. Orlando Hudson, 32 years old

Hudson’s began what will ultimately end up being a short tenure with the Dodgers on fire. He tore the cover off the ball in April (.337/.411/.537), and continued to a lesser extent in May (.328/.404/.414), and then fell off the face of the earth in June (.222/.269/.343). Hudson rebounded some in July and August, and then had a rough September, ultimately losing playing time to Ronnie Belliard.

Hudson is a Type A free agent again, and could have to camp in for another long offseason. Teams will question his ability to hit in the American League, where he spent the first part of his career and posted lesser numbers. And his once stellar defense has regressed to about average in terms of UZR.

4. Juan Uribe, 31 years old

The San Francisco Giants spent the majority of July in the rumor mill looking for a right handed hitter. They acquired Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez, but ultimately the most effective increase in performance was Uribe. Uribe hit .325/.374/.596 from September 1 on.

Uribe was originally a shortstop with the Chicago White Sox who had a lot of power potential. He never filled into that potential, but could be maturing into a similar player. Either way, Uribe has a pretty good glove at second base, much better than at shortstop or third base, where he’s also played.

5. Freddy Sanchez, 32 years old

Batting title? Check. Clean bill of health? No check. Legitimate power of any kind? No check. Perhaps the only reason Sanchez belongs on a list of top free agents any longer is that he’s actually a pretty decent fielder (5 UZR/150 for his career at second base).

Sanchez has ridden his 2006 batting title to it’s last stop, and is likely to have his $8 million option declined by the team that traded for him: the San Francisco Giants. He doesn’t walk much and after hitting 53 doubles in 2006, and 41 in 2007, he Sanchez played only 25 games with the club and his lingering injuries should concern some teams going forward.

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

Free Agent Tracker: Catcher

Like last year, this year’s most fruitful market for catchers is the trade market, rather than the free agent market. The Texas Rangers, who traded Gerald Laird to the Tigers last season still have two worthy trade candidates in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden, while Ronny Paulino could be on the move again.

Especially in a poor free agent class, where there isn’t a true standout top free-agent, teams may hold their money in hopes of signing Joe Mauer, who seems to be destined to take over for Victor Martinez, who will likely supplant Jason Varitek this year in Boston.

But Mauer is a free agent after the 2010 season, and the Twins could look to move the switch-hitting catcher at some point before the season, or leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Look for the Yankees to attempt to unload their once-bare proverbial cupboard of farm talent in hopes of acquiring baseball’s top catcher.

*Note: Players with options will be kept off the list unless their options are projected as unexercised. No arbitration-eligible players will be included unless they are projected as non-tender free agents. Ages represent age on June 30, 2010

1. Miguel Olivo, 31 years old

Olivo was once a key piece in a trade that sent Freddy Garcia to the White Sox. He became a pariah in Seattle, as he and Jeremy Reed struggled at the big league level with the Mariners. Since leaving Seattle though, he’s begun to realize his potential.

A short stint with the Padres preceded two years in Florida, where Olivo re-established himself as a viable catcher prospect. He then transferred to the Royals—usually the final resting place for jettisoned Mariners. Olivo’s 2009 campaign boasted impressive numbers, including a .241 ISO and a .262/.334/.405 line for opposing hitters while Olivo was behind the plate, far better than the other two catchers the Royals fielded, and on a pitching staff that was pretty shaky apart from Zack Greinke.

2. Bengie Molina, 35 years old

The middle brother of the “Catching Molina brothers” becomes a free agent this offseason. Molina has transformed himself from a soft-hitting, defensive-minded backstop to a guy with some pop in his bat. Molina won two straight Gold Glove Awards in 2002 and 2003, when he played with the then-Anaheim Angels, but had only 19 homeruns and 42 doubles in the seasons combined.

In Molina’s last two seasons with the Giants have netted 36 home runs and 58 doubles. Molina would rank much higher, but he carries Type A status, something that caused several highly ranked free agents to remain unsigned for most of last year’s offseason. While Molina is a valuable catcher, his value as a free agent is extremely limited by the compensation that his signing team will have to surrender.

3. Yorvit Torrealba, 31 years old

Torrealba lost his role as the Rockies starting catcher to Chris Ianetta in 2008. The team has always struggled to maintain consistent starting pitching though, and what the team gained in Ianetta’s power and offensive potential, it would appear they lost on defense.

It would be simple to just blame Ianetta for the team’s 2008 struggles, and give credit to Torrealba for their 2007 success, but 2009 may have told a more accurate story. The team was 36-25 in games that Torrealba started, including 23 games after Sept. 1. Also, Rockies pitchers held batters to a .253/.327/.391 line with Torrealba behind the plate compared to .266/.330/.418 with Ianetta.

4. Rod Barajas, 34 years old

Rod Barajas is the only catcher I know of that has caught for Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Jamie Moyer. Apart from his stint in Texas Barajas has caught a legend in every stop.

Barajas may not be the most intriguing offensive player, and has earned most of his money on the defensive side, but Barajas has hit 30 home runs and 42 doubles in the past two seasons.

5. Jason Kendall, 36 years old

Kendall is no longer the speedy, toolsy catcher that once threatened to revolutionize the position in the late 90’s. He’s probably not even the dimished, post-gruesome-ankle injury version of himself anymore. In fact, Kendall has turned into a pretty non-descript offensive player, boasting a .244/.329/.315 line in his last two seasons with Milwaukee.

The stats that jump out though, beyond Kendall’s average-to-above-average defense, are that he’s played 282 games in those two seasons, and posted 49 doubles and 92 walks. Kendall’s been a model of durability despite the one gruesome injury, playing 130 games in each season as a pro besides his injury shortened 1999 season, and 150 or more games in five seasons, including 2008.

Casey is a super-sophomore at Green River Community College, where he retired from his post as Editor-in-Chief at the school’s newspaper. He’s a featured columnist for the Seattle Mariners and Seattle Seahawks at Bleacher Report. He does a sports radio show on www.kgrg.com, his college’s radio station on Saturdays from 7-10 PM PST. He can be contacted at caseymgreer@gmail.com.

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