6 Bold MLB Predictions
The Docs Get a Little Crazy and Predict the Future
Will Matt Kemp win the MVP? Told you these predictions were BOLD!
6 Bold Predictions for 2010.
NL East: John Smoltz Rejoins the Braves
After some Braves pitchers go down with injury, the team fills the void with future HOFer John Smoltz. While starting when he arrives in Atlanta, Smoltz finishes the season in the Braves pen, giving the Braves another veteran closer to rely on.
With Smoltz help, the Braves win the Wild Card and finally return to October. The team overcomes the Phillies for the NL Pennant, but eventually falls short in the World Series.
After returning to the playoffs, Smoltz, Chipper and Bobby Cox all call it a career. The three good friends make plans to meet up in Cooperstown five years later.
NL Central: Alcides Escobar Wins Rookie of the Year
Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Pedro Alvarez.
Despite being one of two players on this list with a guaranteed starting job, Escobar has been overshadowed by many other rookies.
But hype doesn’t always win out. Escobar builds on his strong MLB play last year to edge out Jason Heyward for NL Rookie of the Year.
When Rickie Weeks struggles (which would be the opposite of a bold prediction) Escobar is moved atop the Brewers order. Hitting over .300 while stealing 40 bases, Escobar is among the league leaders in runs with Braun and Fielder hitting behind him.
NL West: Matt Kemp wins MVP
Continuing his rapid ascent to stardom, Kemp ends the year as baseball’s first 40/40 player since Alfonso Soriano in 2006.
Reaching his full power potential, Kemp manages to reach the 40 homer mark for the first time. He also steals 42 bases (eight more than last year). With a 300+ batting average and well over 100 RBI, Kemp wins MVP.
Despite Kemp’s extraordinary year, the Dodgers miss out on the playoffs due to a poor performance from their starting rotation.
AL East: Rays trade Carl Crawford, Still Make Playoffs
Knowing that they have little chance to keep Carl Crawford following the 2010 season, the Rays make a deadline deal to send him away for more prospects.
Although the Rays are behind both the Red Sox and Yankees in the standings, they eventually rally into the Wild Card spot, led by Crawford’s replacement, Desmond Jennings.
Jennings, a prospect in the same mold as Crawford, excels in his first MLB season. Coupled with Jeremy Hellickson, the Rays begin another youth movement which leads them back to October.
AL Central: Francisco Liriano Competes for the Cy Young, But Loses to Jake Peavy
Remember when Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched. Well if his spring was any indication, we might finally get to see the 2006 version of Liriano again.
I see Liriano putting up a 2.90 ERA this year while striking out 200+ batters if he stays in the rotation all year.
Now think back to 2007, the last season that Jake Peavy made more than 30 starts. That year, he won the pitching Triple Crown while posting 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts.
I also see Peavy returning to his old form in 2010, posting numbers very similar to Liriano. In the end, the White Sox win the division, and a higher win total might give the Cy Young to Peavy.
AL West: The Mariners Record Doesn’t Improve Despite Off-Season Additions
Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins were brought in Seattle to make the Mariners competitors, but I still think this team is far behind the Angels and Rangers.
Last year, the Mariners got extremely lucky, winning 85 games despite posting a run differential of -52. The expected record for a team with that run differential is 75-87.
In 2009, Lee and Figgins had WARs of 6.6 and 6.1, respectively. Their combined WAR of 12.7 is less than 10 above the players that they are replacing (Adrian Beltre and a number of pitchers who made starts in 2010). That, coupled with Russell Branyan departing (and being replaced with the much worse Casey Kotchman), leaves the Mariners a team that should improve by 5-7 wins in 2010.
Assuming that the Mariners have neutral luck (which would have led to a 75-87 record in 2009), they will finish this season around .500, possibly below it. Even with a small amount of good luck, the Mariners will be hard pressed to reach the 85 wins that they had in 2009.
Brett Kettyle
NL West Preview
How will the NL West be won?
An off season of gun shoot wounds, nasty divorces, and marijuana charges must mean only one thing; we are talking about the NL West!
All kidding aside, this might be the most competitive division in baseball, for better of for worse. Much like last year, you can expect to see these five teams beat each other up, with two emerging down the stretch in September for the division.
Last seasons division champions the Dodgers come in with hopes of defending their division crown once again, but with off the field issues rearing their head it could be their stiffest test yet.
The Rockies will be looking to actually stay hot for an entire season instead of the usual, “oh hey lets catch up and win a million games in a row” form which has teased their fans the last few seasons.
The Giants enjoyed the 1-2 punch of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain but still came up short in the division due to a still figuring it out offensive side of the unit.
It was the Adrian Gonzalez show for the Padres, but his supporting cast of characters failed to come close to his production as the team hopes their youth comes through more in 2010.
Dan Haren was all the Diamondbacks had last season, but when Brandon Webb went down hope was gone for the snakes. A healthy back in form Webb could be just what the young Diamondbacks needs to return to their early 2000’s prominence.
Colorado Rockies (92-70) Lost to Phillies in NLDS
If the Rockies can improve on two things this season, they can and will win the National League West.
One: Start off on the right foot. Last season on May 29th, the Rockies were 19-28 and firing skipper Clint Hurlde for bench coach Jim Tracey. The rest is history as they caught fire and won the wild card.
Two: Find a way to beat the Dodgers. The Rockies were only 3-12 vs. the Dodgers in 2010; imagine if they could have won just a handful more of those games, they would have taken the division.
I like the Rockies here because their starting rotation just does enough. They were the only team in baseball to have their five man rotation each win at least 10 games and who said nobody could pitch in Coors Field? The Rockies ranked 8th in RA/G at 4.42.
Four of the starters return the season, with Jason Marquis leaving via free agency to the Nationals. Jeff Francis will be looking to bounce back to his former 2007 form after missing the entire 2009 season due to injury. Also, Taylor Bucholtz will return in 2010, and the setup man has shown before his arm injury last season, that he has plenty of ability as a setup man.
It took a few weeks, but Huston Street figured it out and anchored the bullpen as the closer with a 3.06 era pitching in 61.1 innings. Fans will not remember his last moments fondly however, as he gave up 3 runs with the Rockies leading 4-2 as the Phillies won the NLDS. No doubt he will be back in form
The offense will be as good as always and assisted by a little depth. Newly signed Melvin Mora will back up Ian Stewart at 3rd base, while Jason Giambi will spell Todd Helton when needed. Expect SS Troy Tulowitzki to put up huge numbers again, just as he did last season hitting 32 HRs and driving in 92 runs.
The Rockies have never been to the playoffs in back to back seasons, but with a good mix of veterans and young guns, the Rockies can not only make the playoffs but take the division.
Lineup:
RF Brad Hawpe
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
2B Clint Barnes
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Todd Helton
3B Ian Stewart
C Chris Iannetta
Starting rotation:
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Jeff Francis
Bullpen:
Huston Street (CL)
Manuel Corpas
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Esmil Rogers
Rafael Betancourt
Troy Bucholtz
Randy Flores
Matt Belisle
Samuel Deduno
Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67) Lost in NLCS
One organization dying to return to the field is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Plenty has happened this off-season, as Manny says he will not return, SP Vicente Padilla shot himself in the leg, and the owner is fighting to save his money in a divorce. Plus is this might be Joe Torre’s swan song?
For the Dodgers to be successful, they need to limit these distractions. How hard will Manny Ramirez play? Has he packed it in already? His comment about not playing for the Dodgers in 2011 is a strange one and there must be something behind the scenes for him to say that. Making one to think that he has been told by management they will not be giving him a new contract. Just how much payroll will have to be slashed in the soon to be nasty divorce between owners Frank and Jamie McCourt?
The Dodgers were 12-3 vs. Colorado, 7-4 vs. Arizona, 9-4 vs. San Diego, and 7-5 vs. their rivals the Giants. If they can complete that kind of success once again they will be tough to beat. A full season of Vicente Padilla is sure to be a roller coaster ride, just ask Texas Ranger fans, and the Dodgers will be carried by a stellar pitching staff and maybe the most solid defense in the National league. At 3.77 RA/G, the Dodgers were #1 in all of baseball.
The departure of Jon Garland means there is an opening in the starting rotation yet to be filled, so the battle to complete the rotation will be interesting this spring in Arizona. Jeff Weaver, who pitched in 2009 for the Dodgers and actually won game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Cardinals, was pitching on a minor league contract which expired at the end of the season. On February 2 he signed a new minor league deal which will bring him to camp with a chance to win that coveted rotation spot. Many people tip Eric Stults to be his main competitor.
With all the focus on the pitching staff and their ability to pitch well at home, you can’t forget these boys can hit too. Andre Either and Matt Kemp each drove in over 100 runs while hitting 31 and 26 HRs respectively. While missing 50 games due to suspension and losing a little over 200 AB compared to Either and Kemp, Manny was still Manny hitting 19 HR with 63RBI hitting .290. Like I said though, will Manny have that same Dodger love and passion after saying this is it?
Expect a tight race between the Dodgers and Rockies, but the Dodgers will fall a little short. However, they control their own fate, as their final 18 games come against NL west opponents. In that final stretch, they play 2 three game series at ARZ and COL, before wrapping up the season with a three game home series with ARZ. Look for the Dodgers to snatch up the wild card.
Lineup:
SS Rafael Furcal
1B James Loney
LF Manny Ramirez?RF Andre Ethier
CF Matt Kemp?3B Casey Blake
C Russell Martin
2B Ronnie Belliard
Starting rotation:
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda?
Vicente Padilla?
Bullpen:
George Sherrill?Jonathan Broxton (CL) ?Hong-Chih Kuo?Ramon Troncoso?Ronald Belisario?James McDonald?Carlos Monasterios
Eric Stults
Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92)
The biggest rebound team maybe in the National League could be the Arizona Diamondbacks. To say heads dropped once Brandon Webb went down last season for the year is an understatement. This was a young team counting on young hitters and the 1-2 punch of Dan Haren and BWebb, but with injuries and inexperience, the DBacks faltered to last in the division.
Dan Haren was an all star and absolutely dominated in 2009 and in a day in age when it’s hard to trust your pitcher to last during the wear and tear of a baseball season, Haren has been the man to count on. The righty has pitched at least 33 games each of the last 5 seasons. Throw in the fact he does so while dominating hitters, what more could an organization ask for in a starter. It will be nearly impossible to top the career best numbers he had last year, but Haren will most definitely be the Diamondbacks ace.
The Diamondbacks absolutely made out like bandits by acquiring stud RHP Edwin Jackson in a trade from the Detroit Tigers. Jackson will fit into the 3rd spot in the rotation, but he could be a #2 or even #1 on plenty of teams in the bigs. The 26 year old 2009 all star also showed his durability by pitching over 200 innings last season for the first time. With a two year contract entering this season already awarded for Jackson, he can pitch without worries of what team or what his future will be for the first time in a few seasons.
All eyes this season will be on Justin Upton this season. The younger brother of Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton, Justin might have even more talent than B.J, and that’s scary. The young right fielder has the speed, power, and average to be an all star for years to come. Not a bad first full season when you have 158 hits, 26 HRs, 86RBIs, 7 3Bs, and 20 SBs. Not to mention watching him fly around RF is a joy to watch.
Third baseman Mark Reynolds needs to address his strike out issues. For the second straight year, the 26 year old broke the MLB record for strikeouts at 223. It is the only blemish in his game. He is such a great hitter as he led the team in HR, RBI, and runs scored. Fans have been and will continue to be patient with Reynolds, since he just completed only his second season in the bigs. Expect more of the same from Reynolds as the tag team effort of Reynolds and Upton will help lead the Diamondbacks to one of the biggest turn a rounds of the season.
If the Diamondbacks can sure up a bullpen that struggled last season, Brandon Webb stays healthy, Haren is Haren, Edwin Jackson struts his stuff, newly acquired Ian Kennedy finally gets his career on track, and the young offense continues to improve, the Diamondbacks will make a wild card push. I think they are 1 more season away from competing for the division crown and regular playoff contention. Stay patient Diamondback fans because GM Josh Byrnes has done some great wheeling and dealing.
Lineup:
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Conor Jackson LF
Miguel Montero C
Chris Young CF
Starting rotation:
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Billy Buckner
Bullpen:
Chad Qualls (CL)
Bob Howry
Blaine Bowyer
Juan Gutierrez
Aaron Heilman
Clay Zavada
Esmerling Vasquez
Leo Rosales
Zach Kroenke
San Francisco Giants (88-74)
The San Francisco Giants were a surprise team last season. Tiny Tim Lencicum only got even better, and won the Cy Young doing so. Nobody knows just how high the ceiling is for this guy, but watching him pitch only makes my arm feel like its going to fall off, and I’m only sitting in my recliner. The guy throws his whole body into every pitch, and shows no wear and tear for it. Matt Cain also dominated and could have wont he Cy Young himself if not slightly overshadowed by his younger teammate. However, the team by the bay offensively could not match the riches of the pitching staff and fell short in the Wild Card race.
The organization knew their weakness and went straight after improving it in the off-season. Last season the Giants ranked near the bottom of the NL charts, at13th in runs, 15th in HR, and last in OPS. While they did sign IF/OF Mark DeRosa and IF Aubrey Huff, DeRosa is coming back from off season wrist surgery and benefited from hitting in a stellar Cardinal lineup. Huff drove in 85 runs last season but only hit .240. While they are additions, they are will not solve all the problems. A full season of former Pirate Freddy Sanchez at 2B should help the cause as well. Pablo Sandoval came out of nowhere and hit .330 was the only hitter to bat over .300. Can he repeat the same success?
What can you say about the pitching staff, it’s almost hard to describe. Giant fans are lucky to be watching Lincecum and heck even Matt Cain. It took long enough for Giant fans, but even Barry Zito kind of figured it out. So much will ride on Zito this season, if he can improve even slightly the Giants can finish better than predicted, as long as their offense helps out. Watch out for another kid, SP Madison Bumgarner, who looked good. He should slip into the tail end of the Giants rotation; this young kid could be a stud in the making.
Brian Wilson saved 38 games and was steady as the Giants closer last season. He had a lot to live up to after 41 saves in 2008, but Wilson was none the less solid. He was spectacular in the 2nd half of 2009, racking up a 1.64 ERA while 1.15 WHIP. Two seasons on the job, 79 saves, not too shabby.
The pitching staff looks amazing. Can their offense win those 2-1, 3-2 games though? The pressure is on the offense since it has been designated as the weakness, so can they deliver? We will see, but the lofty expectations might get to them and it will be hard to execute quite the success this team had last season. They will be good, but in a loaded NL west, the improvements might not be enough.
Lineup:
CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
LF Mark DeRosa
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
2B Freddy Sanchez
C Bengi Molina
RF Nate Schierholtz
Rotation:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Bullpen:
Brian Wilson (CL)
Jeremy Affeldt
Sergio Romo
Brandon Medders
Joe Martinez
Henry Sosa
Waldis Joaquin
Dan Runzler
San Diego Padres (75-87)
Listen up Padres fans and repeat after me, many many times, “patience is a virtue, patience is a virtue.” Padres’ fans seem to understand that these Padres are building to win down the road, and not so much right now. In 2009 the Padres saw the end of the Jake Peavy era as he was traded for four prospects to the White Sox. The Padres still improved on their record in 2009 though, improving their record by 12 games from 2008.
Not to be super harsh, but in 2009 it was a lineup of Adrian Gonzalez and a bunch of other guys. While Gonzalez lead the team in HR, RBI, runs, and OPS (40, 99, 90, .958) they still ranked at or near the bottom in team average (16th), run (15th), OBP (12th), SLG (16th), OPS (15th). While the pitching was good or average, the offense didn’t help the cause.
The bad news is, the Padres did very little to improve themselves offensively, which is sure not to sit to well with Gonzalez, who at some point could become frustrated with carrying the load. Trading third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, maybe their second biggest bat in the lineup, and then pumping up the addition of Jerry Hairston Jr. isn’t going to do this pitching staff many favors.
I don’t care what anyone says, the Padres have to keep Gonzalez. The thought of trading your best player is something I have never understood, especially when he is one of the better players in the league. Right now the Padres could get nothing of equal value. The Padres will continue to lean on him and their young hitters, such as Tony Gwynn Jr. and Chase Headley.
The Padres did add a new, high-quality quality arm in Jon Garland, and did so on the cheap. With a payroll only at $40 million this season, to sign Garland (who was looking for around $10 million more) on a $5.3 million dollar one year deal was a good move. He will slip into the rotation at the third spot, and maybe second, behind Chris Young. The giant right hander had a shaky season, with a few glimpses of greatness and the sometimes head scratching performance sprinkled in. However, he only pitched in 14 games, and most everyone gives him the benefit of the doubt that injuries contributed to his troubles.
The good news, Padres fans can sit back, enjoy the superb weather and watch some other young pitchers with good potential. Clayton Richards, who came from Chicago in the Peavy deal, is a ground ball pitcher who has shown his upside, including one game where the 26 year old held the Dodgers scoreless in seven innings of work. Mat Latos, one of the Padres top prospects, will start the season in the majors. This 22 year old has great control and can throw fire with 97 mph heat. Latos struck out 39 hitters in the 50.2 innings pitched late in the season.
Heath Bell is the closer, who somehow dodged the trade deadline and remained in beautiful San Diego. While he is only 32, it would be hard to imagine the Padres not trading the 2009 all star at the deadline if they aren’t in contention, which they really shouldn’t be. Bell is and will be a coveted closer, who compiled 42 saves out of 48 chances with opponents hitting .213 against him. Bell will be stellar when given the chance once again.
It will be a season similar to last for the Padres, but hey, they did at least land one big fish, and he will not even be on the field, as Dick Enberg joins the Padres TV crew.
Lineup:
SS Everth Cabrera
2B David Eckstein
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Chase Headley
LF Kyle Blanks
C Nick Hundley
RF Will Venable
CF Scott Hairston
Starting Rotation:
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos
Bullpen
Heath Bell (CL)
Edward Mujica
Luke Gregerson
Luis Perdomo
Joe Thatcher
Ryan Webb
Ladies and gentlemen, that’s all for the National League West. It is gonna be a doozy and maybe the best division in baseball. The best part of that is, it’s a bunch of teams with a good mix of young talent, and it’s going to remain a tough battle for years to come. The Padres and Diamondbacks will get there and join the rest of the west, just give them time.
David Fallavollita
AL Central Preview
Lots of Change In The AL Central But Will The Twins Repeat?
As spring makes it’s way in, we say goodbye to a dreadful winter and welcome the 2010 MLB season.
The Twins will try and defend their division title and bolstered their lineup with veterans Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy. They have the offense to repeat, but they will need plenty of help from their starting pitching to contend for yet another division title.
The White Sox made off-season moves of their own to challenge the Twins for the Central, adding much needed help in the bullpen (J.J. Putz) and filling gaps that were lost to free agency (Juan Pierre).
Detroit is trying to keep pace with both Minnesota and Chicago by recently signing Johnny Damon, who will return to the American League Central where he first got his feet wet with the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals look ahead this year to once again battle their way out of the cellar. With a returning Cy-Young award winner and young pitching prospects (Aaron Crow, Luke Hocheavar) on the rise. Look for them not only to finish no only out of last, but possibly even finish ahead of the Tigers.
The Indians have an above average offense, but as it goes with any team in baseball, pitching is the key to winning. Do not expect a contender out of this club even if Kerry Wood finds his late 90′s dominance.
Minnesota Twins (87-76 in 2009 1st place in AL Central)
After an exciting finish to the 2009 regular season, the Minnesota Twins will look to start new and prepare for another division title. After acquiring SS J.J. Hardy from the Brewers for the young and talented Carlos Gomez, the Twins turned around and sign 2nd basemen Orlando Hudson and veteran DH Jim Thome (both parting ways with the Dodgers of Los Angeles). Hardy is much needed after the Twins declined to make an offer to veteran SS Orlando Cabrera and after an excellent 2007 and 2008 seasons in Milwaukee, Hardy saw his numbers drop off tremendously (.229/11/47) in 2009.
With the acquisitions of Thome and Hudson, the Twins have the veteran leadership needed for the 3rd youngest team in baseball entering 2010. With returning MVP Joe Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau, there is no doubt the Twins are favorites to win the Central despite the lack of starting pitching (ranked 23rd in all of baseball).
If Fransico Liriano can return to his 2006 form where he went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a breakout year from Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker, this team could make a push for the AL pennant. They have one of the best closers in Joe Nathan, who has averaged over 40 saves the past 6 seasons, and after season ending Tommy John surgery to Pat Neshek, the Twins look to strengthen their bullpen with Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney. Both finished last year in Triple A and will be fighting for a spot in spring training, and if these right handers can bring their dominate stuff to the big leagues, they will take a lot of pressure off of Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares.
With a solid coaching staff led by 2009 Manager of the Year candidate Ron Gardenhire, look for the Twins to repeat as Central champs once again.
Prediction: (95-67) 1st in the AL Central
Starting Lineup
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Jason Kubel/Jim Thome DH
Michael Cuddyer RF
Delmon Young LF
J.J. Hardy SS
Brendan Harris 3B
Bench
Nick Punto Util
Alexi Casilla 2B/SS
Jacque Jones OF
Starting Rotation
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Carl Pavano
Fransico Liriano
Nick Blackburn
Bullpen
Joe Nathan
Matt Guerrier
Pat Neshek
Jon Rauch
Jose Mijares
Clay Condrey
Jesse Crain
Detroit Tigers (86-77 2nd place 2009 AL Central)
The end of the 2009 campaign is one that the Tigers players, front office, and fans will want to put behind them as they embark on another 162 game regular season (not 163).
They will look forth to contend for the central division yet again, and the Tigers were busy this off-season filling holes left by the departure of Curtis Granderson, Placido Palanco, and Edwin Jackson.
In a seven-player three-team trade the Tigers may have got the best of this deal, as they sent Granderson to the Yankees and Jackson to the Diamndbacks, in return they received CF Austin Jackson, RP Phil Coke from the Yankees and SP Max Scherzer and RP Daniel Schlereth (son of former Denver Broncos lineman Mark Schlereth) from the Diamonbacks.
The Tigers believe Jackson has the speed to account for the loss of Granderson, but they’re not expecting to see the same power production. For that they went out and signed veteran outfielder Johnny Damon to a one-year deal, and he can cover some ground in the outfield, steal a few bases, and hit for some power.
The Tigers front office is hoping to get the same Max Scherzer that was so highly touted coming out of the University of Missouri in 2007. Last season he finished 9-11 with a 4.16 era and 174 strikeouts and look for his win total to go up now that he’s with a team that can produce runs.
He joins a staff of a proven winner in Justin Verlander and rookie standout Rick Porcello (14-9 3.96), and they move Coke and Schlereth to a bullpen in much need of left handed arms.
Veteran closer Jose Valverde moves over from the Astors and he is coming off a very nice season when he went 25 for 29 in save opportunities, despite a injury plagued first half. With a healthy 2010 and help from Coke, Schlereth and flame throwing right hander Joel Zumaya, look for Valverde to have 40+ saves yet again.
Time and patience is growing short for manger Jim Leylend in Detroit and after making it to the World Series in 2006, the Tigers have yet to scratch their way back into the post season. With this being the least talented club since 2006, expect no better than a 3rd place finish from the boys from Motown.
Prediction: (85-77) 3rd place in the AL central
Starting Lineup
Austin Jackson CF
Johnny Damon LF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Carlos Guillen DH
Magglio Ordonez RF
Brandon Inge 3B
Gerald Laird C
Adam Everett SS
Scott Sizemore/Ramon Santiago 2B
Bench
Ryan Raburn OF
Clete Thomas OF
Ramon Santiago INF
Alex Avila C
Starting Rotation
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Max Scherzer
Jeremy Bonderman
Armando Galaragga/Dontrelle Willis
Bullpen
Jose Valverde CL
Joel Zumaya
Zach Miner
Phil Coke
Daniel Schlereth
Bobby Seay
Fu-Te Ni
Alfredo Figaro
Chicago White Sox (79-83 3rd place 2009 AL Central)
As the boys from the south side of Chicago head into the 2010 season, there is nothing but optimism buzzing in the clubhouse. After a disappointing finish to the 2009 season, where the White Sox were pushing towards a Central division title after acquiring RHP Jake Peavy from the Padres and OF Alex Rios from the Blue Jays, the Sox fell 4 games short of their 1st postseason appearance since 2008.
Since then GM Kenny Williams has been busy. He traded away infielders Chris Getz and Josh Fields to the Royals for OF and 3B Mark Teahen, who will bring plenty of depth to this Chicago defense. He displayed that he could play any fielding position when playing for the Royals and he will be able to do the same if called upon in Chicago.
GM Kenny Williams didnt stop there. After losing veteran OF Jemaine Dye to free agency he quickly signed the speedy Juan Pierre and veteran OF Andruw Jones. Pierre will fill the void left by Scott Podsednik who was also lost to the free-agent market, and his speed and defense will match that of Scotty Pods,
The club also signed 43 year old SS Omar Vizquel, who spent much of his career playing against this White Sox team as a member of the Cleveland Indians, but Vizquel does not appear to get much playing time behind the Cuban Missile SS Alexi Ramirez.
After watching the strong finish from rookie 2nd basemen Gordan Beckham (.270/14/63) in just 103 games, manager Ozzie Guillen believes that he is the best bat he has on this team full of talented players. If that is the case then watch out for the boys from the southside in 2010.
Carlos Quentin still appears to be the backbone of this offense and if he can find a way to stay healthy and play a full season, and with the veteran leadership from Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the White Sox may have their sights set on another postseason trip in October.
The pitching staff of this Chicago team is not one to be taken lightly. If you did not know who Mark Buehrle was before the start of last year, you soon came to find out after he threw a perfect game( 1 of only 18 ever thrown) against the defending AL Champs, the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Sox also added RHP Jake Peavy, an NL Cy Young award winner in 2007, and already have rising stars Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Veteran Freddy Garcia will eat some innings and the White Sox appear to have the best rotation in the central entering the 2010 season.
The bullpen in Chicago is one of the deepest it’s had in years. With the arrival of J.J. Putz and Tony Pena, the White Sox now have 2 set up men they can rely on to pave the way for Bobby Jenks. Jenks has done nothing but throw hard and put up big numbers since taking the closers role in Chicago, as he has converted 146 save over 168 chances since getting the nod in 2005.
Look for the White Sox to win 90-95 games this year. If they want to have any dreams of playing in the postseason, Carlos Quentin will need to stay healthy and show the same kind of production he has in the past. At best, I see a second place finish in the Central and yet another year away from being a true contender for a World Series ring.
Prediction: (92-70) 2nd in the AL Central
Starting Lineup
Alexi Ramirez SS
Gordan Beckham 2B
Carlos Quentin RF
Paul Konerko 1B
Alex Rios CF
Andruw Jones DH
A.J. Pierzynski C
Mark Teahen 3B
Juan Pierre LF
Bench
Mark Kotsay OF/1B
Jason Nix Util
Brent Lillibridge 2B/SS
Omar Vizquel SS/2B
Starting Rotation
Jave Peavy
Mark Beuhrle
Gavin Floyd
John Danks
Freddie Garcia
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks CL
Matt Thorton
J.J. Putz
Scott Linebrink
Tony Pena
Randy Williams
Kansas City Royals (65-97 4th 2009 AL Central)
The Royals come into spring this year with a positive outlook and that outlook is #23 Cy-Young award winner Zach Greinke. After an incredible finish to the 2009 campaign, the 26-year-old right hander was a unanimous pick for the AL Cy-Young, as he finished ‘09 with a 16-8 record, 2.16 era, and 242 strikeouts. He boasts the lowest era since Pedro Martinez sported a 1.74 era in the 2000 campaign and his curveball will break a batters knees, while his fastball will keep them guessing all the way back to the dugout. With a new look offense and a solid bullpen behind him, look for a 20 game winner and a favorite going in for yet another AL Cy Young award.
The Royals are stacked with young talent and it is only a question of when and where they will produce. After being touted as the next George Brett of the franchise, 3rd basemen Alex Gordon has not shown that he is willing to take that label. In his first 3 years he’s averaged a dismal (12/47/.240) and if Kansas City hopes to make any noise at all in the basement of the Central Division, then Gordon has to step up and produce.
He needs to follow by example of the other young stars that were drafted in 2005 (i.e. Braun, Zimmerman, Upton, Tulowitzki, Ellsbury, Bruce, McCutcheon). Another rising star is 1B Billy Butler, who had a very strong second half to the 2009 campaign that most veteran players would be happy with. Butler hit 14 HR in 332 at bats and finished the year with 51 doubles, 22 homeruns, and a .301 average. If he could turn just 10 of those doubles into longballs, then everyone in Kansas City will forget about #4 sitting at the other hot corner. Slowly but surely Butler is making a name for himself.
Not a lot has changed with the bullpen of the Royals this year, and that maybe a cause for concern (22 blown saves in 2009). The Royals bullpen however has one of the best closers in baseball, and if you thought Greinke’s curve was nasty, take a look at Joakim Soria’s 12-6 bender. He only accounted for 3 blown saves in 2009, while converting 30 with a 2.21 ERA and 69 K’s in only 53 innings.
What is GM Dayton Moore thinking? Maybe he knows something we don’t. I think we all know if the Royals are going to win more than 75 games this year, they better add some much needed help in the bullpen.
Manager Trey Hillman is entering his 3rd year as the Royals skipper, and although he had plenty of success in Japan, he has yet to lead anyone to believe that he is capable of turning this team into a contender. Look for Trey to be on the hot seat come mid summer if this team isn’t hovering in the middle of Central race.
Prediction: (75-87) 4th in the AL Central
Starting Lineup
Scott Podsednik LF
Rick Ankiel CF
David DeJesus RF
Billy Butler 1B
Jose Guillen DH
Alex Gordon 3B
Miguel Olivo C
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Alberto Callaspo 2B
Bench
Josh Fields 3B
Chris Getz 2B
Willie Bloomquist Util.
Rotation
Zach Greinke
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Luke Hochever
Kyle Davies
Bullpen
Joakim Soria CL
Juan Cruz
Kyle Farnsworth
Ramon Colon
Carlos Rosa
Victor Marte
Anthony Lerew
Cleveland Indians (65-97 4th 2009 AL Central)
The Cleveland Indians break camp with many questions about their big league roster. The offense which ranked 12th in all of baseball in 2009 has a few concerns, and one is whether or not their most productive player from 2009 will be there in 2010.
Shinn Soo Choo is waiting to hear from the South Korean government on whether or not he will be playing in 2010. In South Korea every able bodied male must serve at least two years of military service by the age of 30 and Choo is fast approaching his 28th birthday in July. However, there is a catch. If Choo were to join South Koreas squad to play in the 2010 Asian games, and take home the gold, then the Korean government would pardon him and he is currently in negotiations with the Indians whether or not he will be able too.
The Indians hope to get back a healthy Jake Westbrook to anchor the pitching staff, although he has not pitched since 2008. Westbrook who averaged 15 wins from ’04-’07 but has not reached double digits since. In 30 starts since then he has only seven wins and spent most of 2009 on the DL.
With a pitching staff ranked 29th in all of baseball in 2009, they can only hope he can turn things around, but their bullpen does not bode well either. Seven of the eight relievers have only 15 years of major league experience combined and this will only be Kerry Wood’s third season in the ‘pen.
After a disappointing 2009 the Indians front office sent Eric Wedge and the entire coaching staff to the exits. They hired former Washington Nationals manager Manny Acta and he certainly has a lot of work cut out for him in the stacked American League Central.
This Indians team is full of talented position players, but where they excel in offense, they lack in pitching. Expect to see a lot of offense put up only to watch the bullpen give it right back. This ball club is still three to five years away from being a true contender in the Central.
Prediction:(66-96) 5th in the AL Central
Starting Lineup
Grady Sizmore CF
Asdrubal Cabrera SS
Travis Hafner DH
Shinn-Soo Choo RF
Johnny Peralta 3B
Russel Branyan 1B
Lou Marson C
Luis Valbuena 2B
Michael Brantley LF
Bench
Matt Laporta 1B
Mike Redmond C
Trevor Crowe OF
Starting Rotation
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
David Huff
Justin Masterson
Aaron Laffey
Bullpen
Kerry Wood CL
Rafael Perez
Chris Perez
Jensen Lewis
Tony Sipp
Joe Smith
by
Ben Olson
AL West Preview
How will the West be won?
The AL West is stacked with talent but there is not a clear cut winner
Jeopardy would be smart to include the AL West as one of its categories. I’ll take AL West for .500!\
Texas, Los Angeles, and Seattle all have the ability to win, yet all have major questions to answer first, and Oakland is young but will be competitive.
The AL West isn’t going to be the best league in baseball, but it could easily be the most exciting coming down the stretch and it will be your typical Wild West showdown between three teams all season long.
The Doctors are here to show you how the West will be won.
1. Texas Rangers
Arlington is already buzzing with excitement, as team President Nolan Ryan will have free reign to make the moves needed to bring a winner to Arlington and owner Tom Hicks will not be able to sabotage this team.
Offense has never been the Rangers problem, and it won’t be this year, as a healthy Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler will lead a powerful attack that got even more powerful with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero.
As usual, there are a few question marks in the Texas pitching staff.
Rich Harden knows the AL West, and the Rangers are hoping he regains his Oakland success. Harden has the abilities to put up solid numbers, but it is highly unlikely he will stay healthy (Harden has never pitched over 200 innings).
The Rangers decided not to take a gamble on Texas native Ben Sheets, who made it clear he wanted to play in Arlington, and it could prove costly. Look for Texas to be in the market for Sheets at the trade deadline if he proves reliable for Oakland.
If the Rangers’ starters can keep the lead in the late innings, they can turn it over to a solid bullpen. Frank Francisco (25 saves) has great stuff and everything is in place for him to become a premier closer.
Youngster Neftali Feliz will be the wild card on the Texas staff. Regarded as a starter, Feliz may end up in bullpen as that bridge to the ninth for Francisco. Spring Training will provide some insight as to what the Rangers are leaning towards but look for Feliz to start off in the bullpen.
The Rangers youth will no longer be an excuse and the fans are demanding results. Players like SS Elvis Andrus, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Davis will be expected to produce this year and others like C Taylor Teagarden, another highly rated prospect, is waiting in the wings in case Saltalmacchia is unable to produce consistently.
2010 Projected Lineup:
CF – Julio Borbon (.312, 19 SB, 20 RBI)
3B – Michael Young (.322, 22 HR, 68 RBI)
2B – Ian Kinsler (.253, 31 SB, 86 RBI)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (.295, 15 HR, 50 RBI)
LF – Josh Hamilton (.268, 10 HR, 54 RBI)
RF – Nelson R. Cruz (.260, 33 HR, 76 RBI)
1B – Chris Davis (.238, 21 HR, 59 RBI)
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.233, 9 HR, 34 RBI)
SS – Elvis Andrus (.267, 33 SB, 40 RBI)
2010 Projected Pitching Staff:
Rich Harden (9-9, 4.09)
Scott Feldman (17-8 4.08)
Tommy Hunter (9-6, 4.10)
Brandon McCarthy (7-4, 4.62)
Neftali Perez * (1-0, 1.74)
*Also competing for the 5th spot – Colby Lewis (0-2, 6.45 ’07) – Matt Harrison (4-5, 6.11) – Derek Holland (8-13, 6.12)
Closer – Frank Francisco (2-3, 2.83, 25 SV)
Prospect’s worth noting:
1. Neftali Perez - 21 years-old – Flame thrower who is expected to start in the ML rotation in the beginning of the season, yet some are reporting he will be in the bullpen
2. Justin Smoak – 23 years-old – Apparently he is hot on Chris Davis’ trails. While Davis did enjoy a strong second half to last season, expect Smoak to get an opportunity if Davis’ struggles during any stretch during the season.
2. Seattle Mariners
The last time the Mariners made the playoffs was 2001 but in 2010 they have one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee have the baseball world buzzing but there still remain questions about their playoff hopes.
Both Hernandez and Lee at the top of a rotation is any baseball fans dream for their team. Lee, a free agent at season’s end, shined in the playoff last year going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies and won the 2008 AL Cy Young. Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in MLB and won 19 games last season. Look for him to be near the top of the 2010 AL Cy Young voting.
Erik Bedard is coming off surgery last August to repair torn labrum (gulp), as well as an inflamed bursa, as well as a bruised ego. It looks as if May is a reasonable time table for Bedard’s possible return but he is coming off a horrible 2009 season where he only started 15 games and pitched 83 innings.
David Aardsma had a breakout 2009 season as the Mariners closer posting a 2.52 ERA with 80 strikeouts over 71.1 innings, racking up 38 saves. Yet Aardsma is not a guy you want on the mound in the 9th inning of a close game if you’re at risk of a heart attack because out of 145 qualified relievers, Aardsma had the 39th highest BB/9 ratio.
Mark Lowe, (2-7, 3.26 ERA, in 75 games), Brandon League (3-6, 4.58 ERA, in 67 games), and Shawn Kelley (5-4, 4.50 ERA, in 41 games) were solid in 2009, but there is no guarantee this reliability stays.
New addition Chone Figgins (.298 BA, 42 SB, 114 R, 54 RBI in 2009) will get on base and score runs, something that has been lacking in Seattle and Ichiro can be described simply as a hitting machine. Ken Griffey, Jr. will battle time as he tries to stay healthy.
Three players that Mariners fans will be watching are Jose Lopez batted .272, was second on the team with 25 homers, and a team high 96 RBIs in 2009, yet was the subject of trade rumors all off-season.
Centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez, entering only his third full major-league season, expects bigger things in 2010, especially now that sore knees that plagued him throughout last season appear to have healed.
Projected 2010 Lineup:
Ichiro – RF (.352, 26 SB, 46 RBI)
Chone Figgins – 3B (.298, 42 SB, 54 RBI)
Milton Bradley – LF (.257, 12 HR, 40 RBI)
Jose Lopez – 2B (.272, 25 HR, 96 RBI)
Franklin Gutierrez – CF (.283, 18 HR, 70 RBI)
Ken Griffey Jr. – DH (.214, 19 HR, 57 RBI)
Casey Kotchman – 1B (.268, 7 HR, 48 RBI)
Jack Wilson – SS (.255, 5 HR, 39 RBI)
Rob Johnson – C (.213, 2 HR, 27 RBI)
Pitching Staff
Felix Hernandez (19-5, 2.49)
Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (5-4, 3.74)
Ian Snell (7-10, 4.84)
Doug Fister (3-4, 4.13)
Closer – David Aardsma (3-6, 2.52, 38 SV)
Prospects worth noting:
Dustin Ackley – 22 years old – OF with a potential move to 2B? – You might remember Ackley as the kid from North Carolina who was drafted 2nd overall to Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 MLB Draft. He still has not signed, however, so the Mariners priorities have to lie with getting that done soon.
Michael Saunders – 23 years old – OF – a power hitter who could see time in the bigs this season if Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes or Ryan Garko fail in some way.
3. Los Angeles Angels
This won’t be the same Angels team baseball fans have become accustomed to – John Lackey (eight seasons), Vladimir Guerrero (six seasons), and Chone Figgins (eight seasons) are all gone, and Guerrero (Texas) and Figgins (Seattle) both stayed in the division. They will certainly be looking to prove something every time they face their old teams.
Despite the loss of Lackey, the Angels, rotation looks solid. Jered Weaver is the most likely replacement to take over Lackey’s spot as the Angel’s ace. Weaver has tremendous stuff, but can he handle being the ace? Weaver must prove last year wasn’t a fluke when he went 16-8 and also had four complete games and two shutouts.
Weaver will be followed in the rotation by Ervin Santana (8-8 5.03), Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60), Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89), Joel Piniero (15-12, 3.49), and on paper, this looks like one of the best rotations in baseball.
While Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins both found new teams to play for in the AL West, the Angels went out and signed 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui, a viable replacement at DH for Guerrero.
Figgins had always set the tone for the Angels lineup and now he’s gone, and leaves a big hole at third. Brandon Wood (.192 BA in 86 games over 3 years) has gotten more chances than Tom Sizemore and again gets his shot in 2010.
The bullpen starts and ends with LHP Brian Fuentes (1-5, 48 SV) and the Angels acquired Fernando Rodney (2-5, 37 SV, 1.47) this off-season, not a headline move but will prove to be important.
Too much talent left town, and not enough came into town. Revenge will play a big role, as the Angels will compete, but will eventually come up short.
Angels Projected Lineup:
Erick Aybar – SS (.312, 5 HR, 58 RBI)
Bobby Abreu – RF (.293, 15 HR, 103 RBI)
Torii Hunter – CF (.299, 22 HR, 90 RBI)
Hideki Matsui – DH (.274, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
Kendry Morales – 1B (.306, 34 HR, 108 RBI)
Juan Rivera – LF (.287, 25 HR, 88 RBI)
Howie Kendrick – 2B (.291, 10 HR, 61 RBI)
Mike Napoli – C (.272, 20 HR, 56 RBI)
Brandon Wood – 3B (.195, 1 HR, 3 RBI)
Pitching Staff
Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.75)
Ervin Santana (8-8, 5.03
Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89)
Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60)
Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49)
Closer – Brian Fuentes (1-5, 3.93, 48 SV)
Some prospects you could hear about before the season is over –
Hank Conger – 22 years old – Catcher – Will start season in AA
Peter Bourjos – 23 years old – Centerfielder – If Torii Hunter goes down with an injury expect this speedster to get a call to the big leagues
4. Oakland Athletics
We rarely question Billy Beane, yet its tough to see what his plan is in Oakland. They have a lot of talented young players (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Bailey, and Vin Mazzaro) and I’m sure will look to continue to trade their older talent for some more youth.
Ben Sheets is a question mark, but might be worth the gamble. Sheets has battled injuries in Milwaukee, sitting out all of last year due to injury and a myriad of DL appearances in his career. Yet, when healthy, Sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Signing him seems like a sign and trade at the deadline much like they did with Matt Holliday.
If the A’s have one strength heading into the 2010 season, and it is their bullpen. Led by AL ROY, Andrew Bailey (26 SV, 1.84 ERA) the A’s bullpen is absolutely phenomenal. Guys like Michael Wuertz (2.63 ERA), Brad Ziegler (3.07 ERA), Craig Breslow (3.36 ERA) and Joey Devine (0.50 ERA in 2008) make the A’s bullpen a nightmare for opposing offenses.
The Athletics lineup will not produce a lot of runs, but they should remain competitive. This young team is just that, young, and they are getting playing experience, which will only help this team down the road.
Athletics Projected Lineup:
Rajai Davis – LF (.305, 41 SB 48 RBI)
CoCo Crisp – CF (.228, 13 SB, 14 RBI)
Kurt Suzuki – C (.274, 15 HR, 88 RBI)
Jack Cust – DH (.240, 25 HR, 70 RBI)
Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3B (.255, 18 HR, 88 RBI)
Ryan Sweeney – RF (.293, 6 HR 53 RBI)
Mark Ellis – 2B (.263, 10 HR 61 RBI)
Daric Barton – 1B (.269, 3 HR, 24 RBI)
Cliff Pennington – SS (.279, 4 HR, 21 RBI)
Pitching Staff
Ben Sheets (13-9, 3.09 ’08)
Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.54 ’08)
Dallas Braden (8-9, 3.89)
Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06)
Trevor Cahill (10-13, 4.63)
Closer – Andrew Bailey (6-3, 1.84, 26 SV)
Some prospects you could hear about before the season if over –
Michael Taylor– 24 years old – LF – Could make the team out of spring training
Chris Carter – 22 years old – 1B – Powerful hitter, average defender, ROY candidate
Brothers Upton: When the Younger Brother Takes Over
The Upton Brothers are two of Baseball’s Best
The Upton Brothers are ready for a big 2010.
It typically takes years of hard work for a younger brother to finally pass his older brother in talent, but it only takes a few weeks to notice the difference. It did not take long for Justin Upton to pass his older brother Melvin Emmanuel, better known as B.J. (Bossman Junior), talent wise, and once thought of as B.J.’s little brother, these days B.J. is known as Justin’s older brother.
Both were drafted out of high school in Chesapeake, VA, and B.J. graduated high school in 2002 while Justin in 2005. Both were widely known as two of the top prospects in their classes and selected within the top two picks of their respective drafts.
B.J.’s professional career got off to a slow start but five years after being drafted after Bryan Bullington, and ahead of Prince Fielder and Zack Greinke, B.J. went wild in the 2008 playoffs against Boston.
B.J. hit four HR in seven post-season games against the mighty Bo-Sox and the Upton name was here to stay for a long time. Fantasy owners and Tampa Bay management are still holding on to the hope that B.J. can find that stroke again after a dismal 2009 campaign.
Justin was drafted as the No. 1 pick in 2005 and became the youngest player in MLB in 2007 when he came up as a 19 year old. He obviously did not belong in the minor leagues and it only took him one full season to get acclimated to big league pitching.
Last season, younger brother Justin had a monster season, hitting .300, getting on base at a .366 clip, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB, and 84 R; sheesh! Not bad for a 21 year old kid.
Both still young, B.J. will be 26 in August and Justin will turn 23 in August, a lot of progress is still to be made with the brothers. B.J. needs to make more contact and start getting on base more, while the sky is the limit for “little” brother Justin.
Still in his MLB infancy and already an All Star, Justin needs to hone a few big league skills like baserunning, defensive positioning, and even though he had a great hitting season, the kid still does not have a major league approach at the plate!
He might be younger in years but Justin is much more of a physical presence standing at 6’2” 205 lbs., while B.J. is only 170 lbs. at the same height.
B.J. has failed to live up to the expectations after his post-season HR binge (average has dropped the last three seasons and only hit .241 last year), but his brother has picked up the Upton family slack.
They both play different styles; Justin is a monster of a corner outfielder while Bossman Junior is a fleet footed center fielder, and it is a big year for both Uptons.
Joe Madden has never been the biggest fan of B.J. due to his deficiencies in center field and how he does not utilize his speed enough. Sure, he had 42 SB last season, but he hit .241 and got on base only 31% of the time, hence B.J.’s drop in the Tampa lineup. If those numbers do not improve, you could see the older Upton in another uniform by mid-season.
Justin on the other hand is not going anywhere. He will likely be the face of the Diamondback franchise as soon as Brandon Webb hits the road, which should be shortly, and after Justin tore the cover off the ball as a 21 year old last season, comparisons to Ken Griffey, Jr., are not pretentious.
It is a day most older brothers dread their entire lives, but they know it is inevitable, and it happens unexpectedly.
It is when the younger brother takes over as the better player, but what most older brothers forget is, the younger brother was made a better player by their hero, their older brother.
So for all you Justin Upton fans, do not thank Justin, thank his older brother Melvin Emmanuel, AKA B.J.
Matt Anaya
@MatAnaya
@DugoutDoctors
NL Central Predictions
As soon as the Cardinals resigned Matt Holliday most people thought the NL Central was wrapped up that day, and although the Cards are the odds on favorites to win the division they will face stiff competition from two of their biggest rivals.
The Cubs have the deep pockets to always produce a competitive team and should be the stiffest competition for St. Louis. While the Brewers, who also feature two of the best hitters in the NL, bolstered their staff this off-season in order to compete for the division crown.
The Reds will likely be better than last season and BaseballProspectus.com actually predicted them to finish second in the division.
The Astros have a nice offense but injuries have taken a toll on Roy Oswalt and their rotation lacks depth.
And those Pirates have been in rebuilding mode for nearly 20 years, and this season should be about developing Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez (There are kids in college that have never seen a winning Pirates team).
St. Louis Cardinals (Last season 91-71, 1st place NL Central)
The Cardinals return much of the same team that won 91 games and the NL Central in 2009 and their biggest move this off-season was re-signing slugger Matt Holliday (.313/24/109). While they lost Mark DeRosa, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, and Khalil Greene, St. Louis managed to develop players who should step in nicely this season.
There is no doubt St. Louis will miss DeRosa at 3B but he only played 68 games for them last season and players like Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan, and Colby Rasmus will fill in for the players the Cards lost to free agency.
There is a gaping hole left at 3B left by DeRosa and Glaus, but Glaus was injured for most of last season and journeyman rookie 3B David Freese might be an upgrade. There is no doubt the Cardinals want to make another move to help their 3B situation and Felipe Lopez might be coming back.
The Cardinals are hoping to re-sign John Smoltz to help a staff anchored by two Cy Young award winners, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and they also signed Brad Penny. Kyle Lohse will look to bounce back after a mediocre 2009 but the Cards lack starting depth, hence their recent signing of Rich Hill. The Cards will likely look to add more starting pitching as Spring Training nears.
Ryan Franklin was an All Star closer last season and Tony LaRussa can manage a bullpen as good as anyone in MLB. Although St. Louis does not blow you away with great names in the pen, LaRussa will work with what he has and get the most out of each reliever.
Jason Motte is likely the set-up man while Dennys Reyes and Trevor Miller will handle the left-handed duties. If Dusty Baker were handling it, the St. Louis bullpen would be a disaster but the Cardinals bullpen should not be their weakness.
St. Louis has 21 out of 25 spots wrapped up and there is still much work to be done this off-season, but look for the Cardinals near the top of the NL Central throughout the 2010 season.
Lineup
Schumaker 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Holliday LF
Ludwick RF
Molina C
Freese 3B
Ryan SS
Bench
Julio Lugo IF
Jason LaRue C
Starting Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter
Kyle Lohse
Brad Penny
Rich Hill
Bullpen
Ryan Franklin
Jason Motte
Dennys Reyes
Trevor Miller
Josh Kinney
Chicago Cubs (83-78, 2nd place in 2009 NL Central)
The Cubs offense was disappointing and dreadful last season as they ranked 10th in the NL in runs and OBP and 12th in average. Chicago suffered from miserable seasons from Aramis Ramirez (only played 82 games due to injury), Alfonso Soriano (.241/20/55), and 2008 Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto (.218/11/47 in only 102 games) and look for all three to bounce back this season.
Soriano will be nowhere near what he was a few years ago but last year was the worst year of his career and look for him to comeback around .270/25/90. A full season from Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto and a bounce back season from Soriano will solve most of the Cubs 2009 offensive struggles.
The Cubs have not had a pitching problem since Larry Rothschild took over in 2002 and last year pitching was not the north siders’ problem. The team ranked 5th in the NL in ERA, 2nd in QS and Ks, and 3rd in BAA in 2009. Like I said, not the problem.
This season the Cubs will head into May without 2009 ace Ted Lilly (12-9, 3.10 ERA), who is out with a shoulder injury until late April. Carlos Zambrano (9-7, 3.77) is another Cub in line for a bounce back season after he threw his lowest amount of innings since becoming a full time starter in 2002.
Ryan Dempster (11-9, 3.65 ERA) should be solid once again this season and the Cubs are hoping for another great season from Randy Wells (12-10, 3.05). The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs as Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Silva will battle for early starts while Lilly is disabled.
While the starting rotation is never the problem in Wrigleyville the bullpen struggled mightily last season. Kevin Gregg’s (5-6, seven blown saves, 4.72 ERA) subtraction is an addition to the team, but the Cubs will be relying on young arms Carlos Marmol (.170 BAA but a 1.46 WHIP) and oft-injured Angel Guzman.
John Grabow will handle the LHP duties and it will remain an open competition past that but whoever does not make the fifth spot in the rotation will be in the bullpen, which will help the depth.
The Cubs are still in talks with Kiko Calero and Chan Ho Park to help solidify their bullpen but if they want to be serious NL Central contenders they will need to add more relievers.
Lineup
Ryan Theriot SS
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Marlon Byrd CF
Alfonso Soriano LF
Geo Soto C
Jeff Baker 2B
Bench
Mike Fontenot IF
Chad Tracy U
Koyie Hill C
Andres Blanco IF
Xavier Nady OF/1B
Starting Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ryan Dempster
Ted Lilly
Randy Wells
Tom Gorzelanny/Sean Marshall/Jeff Samardzija
Bullpen
Carlos Marmol
Angel Guzman
John Grabow
Milwaukee Brewers (80-82, third in the 2009 NL Central)
The Brewers might have the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central and that is saying a lot when you have Pujols and Holliday in St. Louis. Prince Fielder (.299/46/141) and Ryan Braun (.320/32/114) are two of the best hitters in the MLB and are the focal points of every team when they play Milwaukee.
This off-season the Brew Crew made a bevy of moves in order to create more runs for an offense that scored the third most runs in the NL last season. Pitching was also a priority this season and GM Doug Melvin acquired one of the best starters, Randy Wolf (11-7. 3.23 ERA), and one of the best relievers, LaTroy Hawkins (2.13 ERA).
The arrival of 23-year-old SS Alcides Escobar made J.J. Hardy expendable and they shipped him to Minnesota in exchange for CF Carlos Gomez. Gomez, once traded for Johan Santana, is a highlight waiting to happen but must make more contact to be an everyday player.
Ricky Weeks was having a productive first half for the Brewers last season until he went down with a season ending wrist injury and the Milwaukee offense will never be the problem as long as the two boppers are still on the Brewers.
Milwaukee had an average bullpen last year but with the addition of LaTroy Hawkins, the emergence of Todd Coffey (2.90 ERA), and Trevor Hoffman closing games, Milwaukee’s pen should not be a problem.
The Brewers starters struggled mightily last season as they recorded the worst ERA and WHIP in the NL, only had one CG, nary a SHO, and they ranked 13th in Ks and 15th in BAA. You get the point, right? The Brewers could make the case that they had the worst starting pitching in the NL.
The starting pitching will improve this season, but not by much. Yovani Gallardo (13-12, 3.73 ERA, 204 K) is an absolute stud and will likely get better this season. The Brewers signed veteran LHP Randy Wolf to help solidify their starting staff and he will definitely help improve the staff’s numbers but the Brewers lack depth after the top two.
Doug Davis has not had a sub 1.5 WHIP in four years and Jeff Suppan gave up 16 runs in his last three starts of the season and was miserable all year long. Dave Bush and Manny Parra had a combined 6.37 ERA last season and the back of the rotation is awful. If the Brewers cannot fix this problem they will not contend for the division title even with Fielder and Braun.
Lineup
Escobar SS
McGehee 3B
Braun LF
Fielder 1B
Weeks 2B
Hart RF
Zaun C
Gomez CF
Bench
Jim Edmonds OF
Mat Gamel IF
Jody Gerut OF
Matt Treanor C
Craig Counsell IF
Starting Rotation
Yovani Gallardo
Randy Wolf
Doug Davis
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush/Manny Parra
Bullpen
Trevor Hoffman
LaTroy Hawkins
Todd Coffey
Carlos Villanueva
David Riske
Mitch Stetter
Cincinnati Reds (78-84, fourth in 2009 NL Central)
The Reds made one of the biggest splashes this off-season signing Cuban defector and soon to be 22-year-old, LHP Aroldis Chapman. Chapman will likely start the season in the minors but could be primed for a call-up as the summer approaches.
The Reds have not been relevant since early last decade and still have some major holes that need filling. Cincinnati is building around a young pitching staff featuring 23 year olds Johnny Cueto (11-11, 4.41 ERA) and Homer Bailey (8-5, 4.53 ERA), while future staff ace Edinson Volquez gets healthy recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Volquez will likely be out until August and the Reds are hoping former aces Aaron Harang (6-14, 4.21 ERA) and Bronson Arroyo (15-13, 3.84 ERA) can keep the team afloat as the offense tries to produce.
The Reds offense was bad last season ranking 11th in the NL in runs, 13th in SLG, and 15th in hits, OPB, and average but the team did not make any moves to upgrade their offense this season.
The team will rely on the soon to be 23 year old Jay Bruce and Joey Votto (.322/25/84) in the future and will probably look to trade the boneheaded Brandon Phillips this season. There is no doubting Brandon Phillips’ talent but it might be time to find a new home for the enigmatic Gold Glover who has never made an All Star team.
Even with Dusty Baker managing the bullpen last season, the staff managed to hold the third best bullpen ERA. Francisco Cordero (39 saves, 2.19 ERA) is one of the best closers in the MLB, and Nick Masset (2.37) and Arthur Rhodes (2.53) had great seasons last year.
If the Reds can figure out how to score runs with players like Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, and Paul Janish starting then they can contend for the division title. But the likelihood of that happening is very slim, much like the Reds chances of winning the 2010 NL Central.
Lineup
Stubbs CF
Janish SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Dickerson LF
Hernandez C
Bench
Adam Rosales IF
Willy Taveras OF
Laynce Nix OF
Juan Francisco IF
Ryan Hanigan C
Starting Rotation
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman/Edinson Volquez
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Arthur Rhodes
Micah Owings
Danny Herrera
Matt Maloney
Houston Astros (74-88, fourth place in 2009 NL Central)
The Astros have a few nice pieces (Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence) but lack organizational depth with their offense, pitching, and farm system to be legitimate contenders in 2010.
Take a look at the Astros roster and you will only find Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Wandy Rodriguez as the only regulars who were drafted and developed by the Astros organization, which is a major cause for concern.
The Astros are a team that typically builds from trades and free agents, hence their astronomical payroll for a mediocre team. They are overpaying for Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman and look for Houston to try to move any expensive player, as they should not come close to competing for the NL Central crown.
Sure a team with Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez might have a chance to be around .500, but then you see Houston only won 74 games with a better team last season (they lost Miguel Tejada and Jose Valverde).
The Astros have a very good OF, featuring slugger Carlos Lee, speedster and Gold Glover Michael Bourn, and the emerging Hunter Pence. But the Astors IF is lackluster with the exception of Berkman.
Pedro Feliz is a journeyman IF, Jeff Keppinger is not a full time starter, Kaz Matsui has been overrated since he hit a HR in his first big league AB, and J.R. Towles has 234 ABs in three years. Ouch, and now you can see why they will not compete past June this season.
The pitching staff starts out strong with Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez (14-12, 3.02), but Oswalt battled injuries all last year and had a career low 8 wins in 2009. Rodriguez might be the ace of this staff as the season goes on and Oswalt is another player worth trading if you are Houston.
The rest of the starters are hard to look at without getting nauseous.
Brett Myers started only ten games last season and is clearly on the decline, Brian Moehler is 39 years old and should have retired after his 6.57 ERA in 2006, and 25 year old Bud Norris and his 10 career starts bring up the rear. I think I’m getting sick.
The bullpen took a hit when they lost Jose Valverde to free agency, but they picked up Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon to help solidify the back end of the pen. It looks like Lindstrom will start as the closer but he better fix his 5.89 ERA if he wants to maintain his role.
The bullpen was not bad last season and will not be bad at all this season if the back end can hold the lead in the late innings. Wesley Wright, Tim Byrdak, Sam Gervacio, Chris Sampson, and Jeff Fulchino all had good years last season, but a good bullpen on a mediocre team is a band-aid at best.
It looks like Houston will be sellers at the trade deadline and with an inflated payroll and not many wins behind that payroll, it is almost guaranteed.
Lineup
Bourn CF
Matsui 2B
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Pence RF
Feliz 3B
Keppinger SS
Towles C
Bench
Jason Michaels OF
Geoff Blum IF
Humberto Quintero C
Starting Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Brian Moehler
Brett Myers
Bud Norris
Bullpen
Matt Lindstrom
Brandon Lyon
Wesley Wright
Tim Byrdak
Sam Gervacio
Chris Sampson
Jeff Fulchino
Pittsburgh Pirates (62-99, fifth place in 2009 NL Central)
For nearly 20 years the Pittsburgh Pirates have been the joke of the National League and it will continue in 2010 (sigh). Although the win/loss column will not drastically change you might see a slight change in direction with the 2010 Bucs because they will start to build around their youth, instead of trading it.
Andrew McCutchen burst onto the scene last season, finishing fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year award with a .286/12/54/22 line. McCutchen should be playing CF the next time the Pirates make the playoffs, but who knows if that will ever happen.
3B Pedro Alvarez is the Pirates’ best prospect in years, perhaps since the early 80s when it was you know who. Alvarez is a huge 3B power prospect who might be moved to 1B in the future. He took a lot of heat because of his delayed contract negotiations but the Bucs signed him up in time to hit 27 HRs last season while splitting time between High A and AA.
Alvarez will not be up when the season starts but if the Bucs are committed to staying out of the dumpster this decade they will make room for Alvarez like the Rays did for Evan Longoria.
After McCutchen and Alvarez there is not much else in the entire organization.
Pittsburgh got a random career year out of 28-year-old rookie RF Garrett Jones (.293/21/44/10 in only 314 ABs), who will likely start in RF again after the monstrous ’09. Lastings Milledge rounds out the OF as the toolsy 25 year old gets another chance to prove himself on the field.
Without Alvarez in the IF, Pittsburgh might have the worst IF in the MLB.
3B Andy LaRoche (.258/12/64) had a similar year to McCutchen in 50 more games, SS Ronny Cedeno (.208/10/38) will not be handed the position this season as the Bucs added veteran Bobby Crosby. Crosby has always struggled with injuries but will provide insurance all over the IF.
The Bucs added Akinori Iwamura (.281 career avg) and Jeff Clement (former #1 Seattle prospect) to help bolster their right side of the IF, which is respectable but will not lead to many victories, but a healthy C in Ryan Doumit might.
In 2008 Doumit hit .318 with 15 HR and 69 RBI in only 116 games and was poised to break out even more in 2009 until an injury derailed his plans. The break out had to wait another season but Doumit will be one of the few impact bats in the Pirates lineup.
The Pirates pitching staff was horrible last season ranking 15th in the NL in ERA and it will not get any better this season. Very little positive changes were made to the bullpen and starting staff, as the washed up Octavio Dotel is Pittsburgh’s new closer. Ouch.
Zach Duke (11-16, 4.06 ERA) will lead the Pirates staff this season but he will not have much help behind him. Paul Maholm (8-9, 4.44 ERA) had a decent 2009 and should be a candidate to emerge as one of the better Pittsburgh pitchers this season. Ross Ohlendorf (11-10, 3.92 ERA) also had a good 2009 season and will be another pitcher looking to ascend towards the top of the Pittsburgh starting rotation.
Little used Daniel McCutchen (six career starts), Kevin Hart (4-9, 5.44), and Charlie Morton (5-9, 4.55) round up the starting rotation, which lacks the depth and talent necessary to win over 81 games.
The Pirates bullpen was awful last season, ranking 15th in ERA, and might be worse in 2010. They lost closer Matt Capps to the Nationals and replaced him with Octavio Dotel who has not recorded over 12 saves since 2004. Eek!
I read a joke a few weeks ago about the Bucs bullpen and it went like this:
The Pirates ‘Pen, where unwanted relievers go to find jobs.
Ouch, but funny and truthful. Octavio Dotel, Brendan Donnelly, D.J. Carrasco, and Joel Hanrahan all found jobs either this off-season or late last season and were not wanted by their former teams or any other MLB team.
The Bucs will likely end up in last place this season and will be in line to add another young stud in the mid summer’s draft. The Pirates organization needs to start drafting better because nary a free agent wants to go to Pittsburgh and they are simply being used as leverage.
Once Pittsburgh starts drafting better their record will improve, which means more fans, more money, and more free agents will be attracted, but it looks like another long summer in Pittsburgh.
Lineup
McCutchen CF
Iwamura 2B
Jones RF
Doumit C
Milledge LF
Clement 1B
LaRoche 3B
Cedeno SS
Bench
Bobby Crosby IF
Neil Walker IF
Delwyn Young IF
Steve Pearce IF/OF
Ryan Church OF
Brandon Moss OF
Starting Rotation
Zach Duke
Paul Maholm
Ross Ohlendorf
Charlie Morton
Kevin Hart/Daniel McCutchen
Bullpen
Ocatvio Dotel
Joel Hanrahan
Brendan Donnelly
D.J. Carrasco
Twitter.com/MatAnaya
My 2009 World Series Prediction
The Clash of the Titans
For those of who who are not excited about this year’s Fall Classic between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies, think it over for a minute…and while you’re at it read this snippet from Adam Becker’s article over at Baseball Reflections called, “Get Over It!“. After you read it, I’m betting that you will feel differently. Now, here’s that snippet:
“The beauty of this year’s Series is that those of us that don’t have a rooting interest, can sit back, relax, and watch the past two AL CY Young award winners duel in Game 1, Pedro Martinez take another crack at the Yankees in Game 2, the greatest closer of all-time hurling once again in October, and winners of a total of five MVP’s in the past 6 years……not to mention post-season legends Derek Jeter and Andy Pettitte, and 3-time defending Silver Slugger Chase Utley.”
After I read this snippet, my reaction was just…WOW!
BUT, before we dive into my prediction, let’s take a quick look at how these two teams got here from the League Championship Series.
NLCS — The Philadelphia Phillies vs. The Los Angeles Dodgers
The bottom line in this series is that the Dodgers pitching which was so dominant against Cardinals simply couldn’t keep series MVP Ryan Howard and the rest of the Phillies power line up at bay. In the end, the combo of the dominant pitching of Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez and their potent offense was just more than this Dodger team could handle. This will be the franchise’s 7th trip to the World Series.
ALCS — The New York Yankees vs. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
I honestly don’t know if it was more the dominant play of CC Sabathia and A-Rod or the uncharacteristically hideous Angel defense, which coughed up 8 errors, that sent the Yankees to their 40th World Series appearance. After all, the Yankees committed 3 errors of their own. To be honest, the Yankees didn’t impress me in this series! With the way the Angels were playing this series should have ended quicker. Then again, maybe the Angels were able to take it to 6 games due to the intangibles like their desire to win it for Adenhart. Who knows?
My Prediction for the 2009 Fall Classic
For the first time in as long as I can remember we have as even of a match up as is possible. The Phillies are NOT your typical National League team! Yes they can play small ball and run, but that’s just a part of their game. They are also a power-filled line up much like your above average American League team and much like the Yankees themselves.
This series has the potential to be an instant classic if only given the chance. This match up is THAT good!
Both starting rotations have their question marks after the former Cy Young Award winning Indians take the mound tonight. Will the Yankees still show themselves as Pedro Martinez’s “daddy” as he claimed when he was with the Red Sox? Will A.J. Burnett be caught by Posada or Molina? Which Cole Hamels will we see in game 3 against Andy Pettitte? Likewise, which version of closer Brad Lidge will we see? He will need to be the Lidge we saw in all of 2008 to match Rivera “the great”! And will A-Rod continue his uncharacteristic hot hitting in the post-season?
Will all of the drama, hype and All Stars in this series I for one would be disappointed if it didn’t go 6 or 7 games!
But when the last team is standing, I expect them to be wearing the “red” pinstripes of the Philadelphia Phillies! If for no other reason that I believe that they can dent the armor of Rivera, although not by much, but more importantly I just think they are the better team all around. Plus, winning the Fall Classic last year as opposed nine years ago is an advantage in the Phillies corner
What do you all think? Let your voice be heard!
My name is Peter Schiller. I am the creator/owner of Baseball Reflections.com. I’m also a contributing writer. To read more of my work at Baseball Reflections just click HERE!
