2011 NL All-Star Game Ballot

Major League Baseball’s 2011 All-Star Game is on July 12. Now that it is only a couple weeks away, The Dugout Doctors would like to present their NL ballot. Go vote now!

Click here for my AL ballot!

Note: All stats are updated as of 6/22/2011.

CATCHER

Brian McCann – Atlanta Braves
(.301/.379/.510, 24 R, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB)

McCann has been a model of consistency since 2006. This would make for McCann’s sixth straight All-Star appearance. Considering he leads all NL catchers in home runs, RBIs, total bases, a number of other sabermetrics categories and he plays almost everyday, he’s the obvious choice here.

FIRST BASE

Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers
(.303/.425/.609, 45 R, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB)

Fielder is tied for the lead or leads the NL in home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage to name a few and hasn’t even taken a day off. This would only be his third All-Star Game but there is a stiff competition at his position between he, Pujols, Votto and Howard. Plus, his numbers put him in the NL MVP conversation, so he has my vote.

SECOND BASE

Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
(.287/.357/.502, 51 R, 14 HR, 32 RBI, 7 SB)

Hitting ahead of Fielder and Braun has inflated Weeks’ numbers but there’s no reason to diminish what he’s done this year in comparison to the other guys at second base. Phillips currently leads the vote, which I can understand. But Weeks gets the slight nod over Walker in my book.

THIRD BASE

Ryan Roberts – Arizona Diamondbacks
(.262/.348/.472, 39 R, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 9 SB)

You know what’s a travesty? Roberts isn’t even on the ballot. Not at third, not at second, nothing. That’s unacceptable. While Polanco is playing great and Headley is having a solid year, Roberts is contributing across the board and plays multiple positions. So I vote for Roberts in spirit and when I voted online, I selected Polanco.

SHORTSTOP

Jose Reyes – New York Mets
(.336/.380/.508, 54 R, 3 HR, 29 RBI, 26 SB)

This is more or less a toss-up between Tulowitzki and Reyes. But Reyes is having one hell of a year. The guy has a dozen triples. He’s getting on base, scoring runs and stealing bases. What puts him over the top for me is Reyes’ OPS (.888) beats out Tulo’s (.841). If Tulowitzki was hitting a little better, it’d be a different story.

LEFT FIELD

Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
(.310/.395/.557, 54 R, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 16 SB)

There’s no good reason to not like Braun. If there is, I bet it has to do with an emotion-based opinion of him and nothing to do with his game. He does it all and is in the prime of his career. Nobody is even playing close to his level right now in the NL at left field. Braun’s WAR is 3.4, the next closest player is Martin Prado with 1.7.

CENTER FIELD

Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers
(.321/.411/.608, 47 R, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB)

This would be Kemp’s first ASG and it’s well-deserved. While he leaves a lot to be desired as a fielder, he’s mashing the ball. His closest competition is of course Andrew McCutchen, but head-to-head, the numbers are completely in Kemp’s favor. He’s on pace for a 40/40 season as well, in case you needed another reason to be convinced of his performance.

RIGHT FIELD

Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks
(.305/.386/.530, 42 R, 12 HR, 39 RBI, 13 SB)

Although Berkman has better numbers, Upton’s 3.3 WAR puts him in. Berkman has also cooled off significantly since his hot April. And after a noticeable decline in his stats last season, Upton definitely deserves the honor of being fan voted into the ASG, especially in front of his home crowd.

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2011 National League Playoff Predictions

Jack Jones is a sports handicapper who covers the NFL, NBA, MLB, college football and NCAA basketball for Betfirms. He spends his summers finding new ways to get an edge over the daily baseball lines.

It has been exciting to watch the National League play itself out through the first half of the 2011 MLB season.  Now that we are nearing the halfway point, it’s time to start making predictions on which teams will make the NL postseason.  I have gathered enough information to make an educated guess as to which teams will still be standing come October.  One thing is certain to this point, and that is that the NL is loaded with dominant pitching.

The Philadelphia Phillies came into the season as the odds-on favorite to win the NL.  They have not disappointed, currently holding the best record in the league at 40-26.  Atlanta is only 2.5 games behind them, after putting together a great May and carrying their success into the month of June.  Milwaukee and St. Louis are battling it out atop the NL Central, while Arizona and San Francisco are neck-and-neck in the NL West.  Here are my division winners along with the team I believe will get the Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies: NL East Winner

The Phillies have cruised out to a 40-26 start to the season and currently sit atop the NL East division.

Offense

With how great this Phillies staff has been, they haven’t really needed much hitting to win ball games, and they haven’t gotten much of it either.  This lineup clearly misses Jayson Werth in the heart of the order as they are only hitting .247 as a team and scoring only 4.0 runs per game on the season.

One of Philly’s bright spots on offense has been Placido Polanco, who is hitting .309 with 4 HR and 37 RBI.  Ryan Howard (.247, 13, 53) has been close to his usual productive self, while Chase Utley (.261, 2, 8.) has recently returned to the lineup. They need him to return to form after sitting out most of the past two seasons due to injury.  Jimmy Rollins (.256, 4, 21) needs to get going as well, though he has stolen 14 bases and scored 35 runs.

Pitching

The Phils signed Cliff Lee in the offseason, making an already dynamite rotation even better.  They literally have four aces on their staff, and they are all pitching like it.  Roy Halladay has been the best of the bunch, going 9-3 with a 2.39 ERA and four complete games already.  Cole Hamels (8-2, 2.58), Roy Oswalt (4-4, 3.14) and Lee (6-5, 3.41) are all trying to keep pace with Halladay.  Competition breeds success, and what makes this staff so amazing is that each starter tries to go out and out-pitch the starter before him.

Milwaukee Brewers: NL Central Winner

Coming into the season, the Brewers looked better than any team in the division on paper. They have nearly lived up to those expectations as they currently sit tied atop the Central with the St. Louis Cardinals at 38-29.

Offense

Ryan Braun is hitting .308 with 14 HR and 48 RBI, as he and Prince Fielder (.303, 19, 58) are each putting together MVP-caliber seasons. It all starts with Rickie Weeks (.277, 12, 29) at the leadoff spot, who has scored 47 runs while hitting in front of the aforementioned dynamic duo. Corey Hart has returned after missing half of the first half of the season, and Casey McGehee (.225, 4, 24) is likely to get going before the season is all said and done. The Brewers certainly have the hitting to contend in the division, and now have the pitching to hold off both the Cardinals and Reds in the Central.

Pitching

This team has been a starting rotation short of making some noise in the NL for years, but that’s no longer the case. They brought in Shaun Marcum and Zach Greinke, and each has lived up to expectations. Marcum has been their best starter, going 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA. Greinke spent the first month of the season on the DL, but he has returned to go 6-1 with a 4.69 ERA over eight starts. Yovani Gallardo (8-3, 3.96) is finally starting to come around and has been nothing short of dominant over the last month or so. The real surprise has been Randy Wolf (4-4, 3.20), a veteran lefty who has shown he has plenty left in the tank. Chris Narveson (3-4, 4.32) has not been too shabby himself as the fifth starter.

San Francisco Giants: NL West Winner

The defending World Series champs proved that pitching wins titles last year. Again their starting rotation has shouldered the load while a lackluster offense still struggles to get on track. San Francisco sits one-half games ahead of the pesky Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West standings with a 37-29 record.

Offense

The Giants got timely hitting in the postseason last year and they are going to need more of the same this season. San Francisco is without Buster Posey for the remainder of the year after his collision at home plate, which resulted in substantial injuries. Freddy Sanchez is also on the DL with a shoulder injury, but Pablo Sandoval is expected to return to the lineup today after suffering a broken hand which has limited him to just 24 games so far. Sandoval was hitting .313 with 5 HR and 14 RBI before the injury, so his bat will be welcome in this lineup. Cody Ross (.261, 5, 19) was the Giants’ postseason hero last year, but he has missed significant time as well. Aubrey Huff (.234, 8, 34) and Sanchez (.289, 3, 24) have done the best they can to keep this lineup afloat, but they are going to need a lot more from Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell and Andres Torres the rest of the way.

Pitching

To give you an indication of how good their pitching has been, the Giants own a 19-12 home record this season, despite only hitting .234 and scoring 2.8 runs per game. Ace Tim Lincecum hasn’t been as dominant as usual, but he’s still 5-5 with a 3.41 ERA. Ryan Vogelsong (4-1, 1.81) has been the surprise of the staff, while Matt Cain (5-4, 3.36), Jonathan Sanchez (4-4, 3.47) and Madison Bumgarner (2-8, 3.23) have all been holding their own. I still believe their starting pitching and bullpen (17-6, 3.20 ERA) will carry them to their second-straight division title.

Atlanta Braves: Wild Card Winner

Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Braves are only 2.5 games out in the NL East division. This team has overcome injuries to the likes of Nate McLouth, Jason Heyward, Brandon Beachy and Martin Prado to piece together a 38-29 record. The Braves started the season 8-12, but have rebounded nicely to post a 30-17 mark since.

Offense

Providing most of the run production has been Brian McCann, who is hitting .303 with 9 HR and 37 RBI. Prado (.277, 8, 33), Freddie Freeman (.268, 6, 25) and Chipper Jones (.266, 6, 35) have all helped shoulder the load offensively. Atlanta ranks 12th in the NL in hitting (.242) and they are only scoring 3.9 runs per game. Their pitching is good enough to get them the Wild Card, but the hitting isn’t where it needs to be to overtake the Phillies in the NL East.

Pitching

Atlanta has the best ERA (3.04) in the big leagues and that is the biggest reason why they are in the thick of things in the NL East. Jair Jurrjens has been the best of the rotation, going 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA in 11 starts. Tommy Hanson (8-4, 2.48), Derek Lowe (3-5, 4.02), Tim Hudson (5-5, 4.06) and Beachy (1-1, 3.45) are all having solid seasons to help round out this rotation.

Atlanta ‘s bullpen has been rock-solid to say the least. Closer Craig Kimbrel has converted 18-of-23 save chances while going 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in the process. Jonny Venters (4-0, 0.44) and Eric O’Flaherty (1-2, 1.42) have done an excellent job of getting Kimbrel the ball with the lead in the ninth. Atlanta ‘s bullpen as a whole is 13-9 with a 2.64 ERA on the season.

Philadephia Phillies: NL Pennant Winner

2011 American League Playoff Predictions

Jack Jones is a sports handicapper who covers the NFL, NBA, MLB, college football and NCAA basketball for Betfirms. He spends his summers finding new ways to get an edge over the daily baseball lines.

Now that we are nearly halfway through the 2011 MLB season, it’s time to start looking ahead to see which teams have the best chance of representing the American League in the postseason.  It has been a very exciting season to this point, with a few surprises along the way.  The Boston Red Sox were expected to run away with the AL at the beginning of a season and have really come on of late after a horrible start.

The defending-AL champion Texas Rangers have been plagued with injuries this season, but they sit in first place in the AL West, just ahead of the pesky Seattle Mariners.  Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are battling it out in the AL Central.  Over in the AL East, the New York Yankees are hanging in there with the Red Sox and seem primed for at least a wild card spot by the end of the season.  Below are my projected division winners and wild card teams to come out of the American League.

Boston Red Sox: AL East Winner

The Red Sox came into the season with big expectations after giving big contracts to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.  Boston fans were rightfully irritated after the team’s 2-10 start, but their struggles would not last long. The Red Sox have gone 37-16 since and currently own the league’s best record at 39-26.  They sit 2.5 games ahead of their rival Yankees, who they are 8-1 against this season.

Offense

As part of the best lineup in baseball this season, Gonzalez has been even better than the Sox had hoped, hitting .341 with 13 HR and 60 RBI. Veteran David Ortiz (.325, 17 HR, 43 RBI) has shown he still has the ability to produce and be an asset to this team from the DH spot. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Crawford is starting to come around as well after struggling at the plate through the first two months of the season.

Pitching

Josh Beckett has returned this season on a mission, pitching brilliantly thus far, going 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 13 starts.  Jon Lester (9-2, 3.73) and Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.59) give the Red Sox a solid three at the top of their rotation.  They need John Lackey (4-5, 7.41) to somehow turn it around, while finding a consistent fifth starter in the process.

Detroit Tigers: AL Central Winner

The Tigers are only percentage points behind the fading Cleveland Indians in the AL Central race.  They have gone 22-13 in their last 35 games as of this writing.

Offense

Miguel Cabrera is having another MVP-caliber season, hitting .314 with 13 HR and 45 RBI.  Victor Martinez is holding up his end of the bargain as well, hitting .316 with 9 HR and 35 RBI.  Johnny Peralta (.306, 9, 34) and Brennan Boesch (.283, 8, 34) are also chipping in nicely for this lineup.  The Tigers also recently returned Magglio Ordonez to the line-up, and he should provide yet another spark offensively.

Pitching

Justin Verlander (7-3, 2.89 ERA) and Rick Porcello (6-4, 3.61) are holding down the rotation, while Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.69) looks to have a dominant second half like he did a year ago (6-5, 2.47).  Detroit ‘s middle relief has not been great, but Joaquin Benoit has the ability to turn it around after getting a big contract in the offseason.  He sets it up for closer Jose Valverde, who is 16-for-16 in save opportunities, while posting a 2.89 ERA to this point in the season.

This team has the offense, plus plenty of pitching to win them the AL Central division, but they will have to hold off the Chicago White Sox, who will likely be right there with them up throughout the season.

Texas Rangers: AL West Winner

It’s pretty amazing what Texas has done to this point despite playing without Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz for a large portion of the season.  What has been even more impressive is their rotation after losing Cliff Lee to the Philadelphia Phillies in the offseason.  Texas is 36-31 on the season, which places them 1.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.  Seattle has one of the best rotations in baseball that nobody is talking about, but unfortunately for the Mariners they simply don’t have enough hitting to get by the Rangers in this division.

Offense

Despite playing in only 50 games, Cruz has 15 HR and 34 RBI, while Hamilton has 4 HR and 23 RBI in 30 games for Texas. Picking up the slack has been Adrian Beltre (.265, 12, 48) and Michael Young (.306, 3, 40).

Pitching

The starting rotation and bullpen is the real reason the Rangers are in first place right now.  Ace C.J. Wilson was one of their biggest bright spots coming into the year, and he has not disappointed, going 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA.  The surprises in the rotation have been Alexi Ogando (7-0, 2.10), Matt Harrison (5-6, 3.31) and Derek Holland (5-1, 4.41).  It also helps that closer Neftali Feliz has converted 13 of 16 save chances while posting a miniscule 1.21 ERA. As a setup man, Darren Oliver has been great (2.96 ERA) at getting the ball to Feliz in late game situations.

New York Yankees: Wild Card Winner

The Yankees have hung tough in the AL East, and currently sit 2.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox. New York is 36-28 on the season and have played amazing baseball outside of their three series with Boston , going 35-20 against all other opponents.  New York is hitting the ball well, and their starting pitching has gotten a major boost from a few veterans. The AL Central and AL West divisions don’t appear to have a second team to challenge New York , leaving division foe Tampa Bay as their main competition for the wild card spot.

Offense

Derek Jeter is closing in on 3,000 hits for his career, though he is having somewhat of a down season, batting just .260 with 2 HR and 20 RBI.  Curtis Granderson has easily been their most productive hitter, batting .278 with a league-leading 20 HR and 47 RBI.  Mark Teixeira (.250, 19, 47), Alex Rodriguez (.284, 13, 40) and Robinson Cano (.285, 12, 41) have all been playing up to their potential as well.

Pitching

Rotation leader C.C. Sabathia has gone 7-4 with a 3.15 ERA in 14 starts this year, which is pretty much what you would expect from the Yankees No. 1 starter.  The surprises have been Bartolo Colon (5-3, 3.10) and Freddy Garcia (5-5, 3.60), who have each revived their careers. A.J. Burnett (6-5, 4.09) has also bounced back nicely after a sub-par 2010 campaign. David Robertson (1-0, 1.37) has been untouchable while setting it up for the ageless Mariano Rivera, who has converted 16-of-19 save chances and posted 1.85 ERA so far this season.

Boston Red Sox: AL Pennant Winner Prediction

2011 MLB Predictions

The season kicks off for twelve teams tomorrow and if you’re not excited, please leave the site now.

If you’re still here, read below to find our comprehensive picks for the upcoming season. Read more

NL East Predictions

After the Phillies shocked the league and signed Cliff Lee, everyone and their baseball-loving Grandma picked them to dominate the National League and make their third World Series appearance in the last four seasons. But the injury bug bit the Phils hard, and their lineup is starting to look well below average. The departure of Jayson Werth, and injuries to Dominic Brown, Placido Polanco and most importantly, Chase Utley leave Charlie Manuel’s club with hardly any accomplished hitters to protect First Baseman Ryan Howard. And now that Closer Brad Lidge continues to experience arm issues, it appears the Phillies only strength may be their bullpen.

Enter the Atlanta Braves. Though their starting four may not up to par with the Phillies’, it does consist of proven veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, and a strong core of youngsters headlined by the hard-throwing Tommy Hanson. After their offseason acquisition of Second Baseman Dan Uggla, the Braves seem to have the best offense in the league. That, mixed with a deep starting rotation and talented bullpen makes them the new favorites to wear the NL East crown in 2011.

1. Atlanta Braves 95-67
2. Philadelphia Phillies (Wild Card) 91-71
3. Florida Marlins 83-79
4. Washington Nationals 76-86
5. New York Mets70-92

AL Cy Young Candidates

Earlier this week we examined some of the National League Starting Pitchers with the best shot at a Cy Young award, so it’s only fair we do the same for the American League, right? Good, glad everyone agrees:

C.C. Sabathia, NYY – The Yankees signed Sabathia to a monster contract after the 2008 season, and he’s given them everything they’ve asked for. In two seasons, the six-foot-seven Lefty has accumulated thirty Wins, just short of 400 K’s, and a 3.27 ERA. Due to their disheveled Starting Staff, they’re going to need him to be more of a force than ever. I’d be willing to bet he’s up for the task. I would also expect him to opt out of his contract this off-season and really cash in.

Felix Hernandez, SEA – Ho hum. Sorry this article isn’t more exciting. It doesn’t take me to tell you that this guy is a phenomenal pitcher. If he comes anywhere close to last year’s 2.27 ERA, 232 K’s, and 1.057 WHIP, he’ll have a great shot at repeating last year’s award. Of course he belongs on this list. The only knock on Hernandez is the lack of wins. But as I pointed out months ago, who cares?

David Price, TB – In just his second season as a Major League starter, Price finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, thanks primarily to his 2.72 ERA. White I expect his numbers to regress slightly, he certainly belongs on the shortlist of CY Young candidates. With the major losses in the Tampa Bay bullpen, expect Manager Joe Maddon to push Price’s Innings to the limit.

Justin Verlander, DET – While Verlander (pictured right) was pretty good in 2010, it was nowhere near as his 2009 when he lead the league in Innings Pitched (240), Wins (19) and K’s (269!!!). The Tigers are going to compete in 2011, and Verlander will be a big part of that. Once his competitive juices get flowing he’ll likely put up Cy Young type numbers.

Jon Lester, BOS – If you’re going to put money on anything, put it on the Red Sox winning the AL East. The team is built to win, and Lester is pegged as their Ace. And believe me, that’s no mistake. He should have an ERA in the low 3′s, K’s in the low 200′s, with a couple of Complete-Game Shutouts sprinkled in. When left-handed hitters complain about facing strong LHP’s, Lester is the mold of guy they’re talking about.

Other Pitchers of Note: Clay Bucholz, BOS. Jered Weaver, LAA. Trevor Cahill, OAK. Francisco Liriano, MIN.

NL Cy Young Candidates in 2011

When you can almost taste the season (just over two weeks away, folks), it’s time to start making predictions. Division champs, award winners, everything. But before you can make a prediction, it’s nice to know who is in the running and why. Here, I’ll break down some of the frontrunners for the National League’s 2011 Cy Young Award.

Tim Lincecum, SFG: I know, I know, not much of a news-flash to predict a two-time winner can do it again. Lince had, by his standards, a down year in 2010. His ERA was 3.43, not in the 2′s like he had done the two previous seasons. He did improve in the season’s second half, and there’s good reason to believe that will carry over into 2011. He ran into some bad luck last season, and his numbers were still pretty impressive. After all, he still lead the league in strikeouts. Expect that ERA to dip back to his career average as the youngster fights for his third Cy Award.

Phillies Not Named Blanton: Much has been written about the Phillies’ new rotation, namely 2010 Cy winner Roy Halladay and new acquisition Cliff Lee. It’s because they’re amazing. Each one of the top four has a legitimate shot at the 2011 award (less so for Roy Oswalt), and I know it’s crazy to pick against Halladay, but the best choice could be lefty Cole Hamels. He really put thing back together last season, and early spring numbers indicate he’ll be right back to it. If someone asks you who you think will win NL Cy Young in 2011, your safest bet is to say “that guy on the Phillies.”

Josh Johnson, FLA – Right now, he’s my pick. My mind is likely to change in say, three hours, but as of now, he’s my guy. He had a great shot at it last season with an ERA at 2.30, WHIP at 1.11 and 186 K’s, but the Marlins shut him down after one start in September. So, despite the league-leading ERA, Johnson finished 5th in the voting. Johnson has progressively stepped up his game in each of the last three seasons– expect that trend to continue, as Johnson flat out dominates the National League.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD – Kershaw won’t turn 23 until this Saturday, yet he’s already put it all together and established himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. He still has room to improve, and perhaps he’s a couple years away, but before the end of his career, Kershaw will have won a Cy Young award.

Zack Greinke, MIL – Greinke is going to miss a couple starts thanks to injuring his rib while playing pickup basketball, but you’ve gotta think a healthy Greinke can dominate the National League. The 2009 AL Cy Young winner saw his ERA balloon to 4.17 last season with the Royals, but a lot of that was a product of bad luck–his FIP was 3.34. Facing the Pirates and Astros this year shouldn’t hurt. Expect Greinke to pile up the K’s as he establishes himself as an NL ace.

Other Pitchers of Note: Tommy Hanson, ATL. Matt Cain, SFG. Shaun Marcum, MIL. Yovani Gallardo, MIL. Mat Latos, SD.

3 Pitchers Who Will Improve in 2011

Last week I named Three Pitchers Who Will Regress in 2011, but it has nothing to do with me being a pessimistic guy. I can look on the bright side– honestly. So, that’s why today I am bringing you the prettier side of the coin. Here are the Three Pitchers Who Will Improve in 2011:

1. Yovani Gallardo, MIL

If you examine the 24-year-old Gallardo’s numbers you’ll see he was often a product of bad luck. The BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against him was extremely high at .324. His strikeouts per 9 ratio, on the other hand was the usual for this future ace–9.73. If he continues to strike out that many batters (he will) while bringing his walk rate down (he did in last season’s second half), and the luck turns in his favor a bit, he’ll get far better results than the 3.84 ERA he sported in 2010. But numbers aside, what’s going to help Gallardo the most are the additions to Milwaukee’s pitching staff. In years past, Yovani has been asked to be the one bright spot in a glaringly weak rotation. But after the off-season additions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Mexican native will simply be expected to be one of a few great pitchers. The reduced pressure should do wonders for the youngster, as the Brewers make a charge at the NL Central title.

2. Gavin Floyd, CHW

The White Sox figure to have a strong staff in 2011, and Gavin Floyd is a major part of those plans. Though his numbers weren’t bad last season, his 1.37 WHIP was the highest he’s posted since becoming a full-time starter in 2008. Floyd has a lot of strengths. He strikes out a good number of batters, doesn’t give up many home runs (a difficult feat in U.S. Cellular), and keeps his walk rate fairly low. Like Gallardo, he simply struggled with a high BABIP this past season. He also lost strength in his shoulder at the end of last season, and had to shut it down early. If he returns to camp healthy, as he’s expected to, I fully expect Floyd, who just turned 28, to post an ERA around 3.50–the lowest of his career.

3. Francisco Liriano, MIN

Francisco Liriano had a better 2010 than anyone could have expected him to. After a breakout rookie season in 2006, Liriano needed Tommy John Surgery, and returned a far different pitcher, putting up poor numbers in 2008 and 2009. Luckily for the Twins, he returned to form in 2010. He won 14 games in 191.2 innings pitched. His ERA was a respectable 3.62, he struck out over 200 batters, and he even got some votes for the AL Cy Young. After such a strong year, it’s probably crazy to expect even better numbers in 2011, but there’s reason to believe it’s possible. Last season, Liriano’s FIP (fielding independent pitching) a statistic that helps to measure how a pitcher’s number would be, regardless of the defense behind him, was almost a full run lower than his ERA. FIP is usually a good indication of a pitcher’s true ability and value, and it proves the Twins’ ace could be capable of a whole lot more this coming season.

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3 Pitchers Who Will Regress in 2011

Whether you’re a stathead, fantasy junkie or just trying to figure out how your team will fare this next season, it’s important to know what to expect from individual players. Beyond simply observing guys from game to game, there are some more advanced statistics that help baseball enthusiasts predict these things. Knowing pitchers can get lucky from year to year, I’ve assembled a list of three guys who are strong candidates to regress in 2011. This by no means should indicate they are no longer good pitchers, they’re just not quite what they showed in 2010.

Tim Hudson, ATL

The 35-year-old right-hander wowed everyone when he came back with a bang from his Tommy John Surgery. Hudson finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting thanks to a 17-9 record, 2.83 ERA and WHIP at 1.15. While Hudson provided amazing value–especially considering he was paid just $9 million–there’s reason to believe much of his year can be attributed to luck. For one, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was an absurdly low .249. While Braves fans might argue Hudson’s whole job is to use his fantastic sinker to induce weak contact, that BABIP was good for fourth lowest among all starting pitchers. Factor in the his FIP (fielding independent pitching) being 4.09 vs. a 2.83 ERA, and yeah, there was obviously some luck involved. Add to that the addition of the hard-handed fielder Dan Uggla at Second, and a crippled Chipper Jones at Third–while understanding Hudson relies on the defense of his infield– and it’s safe to assume the aging pitcher’s numbers in 2011 will not match those of 2010. Need more reasons for concern? The 228.2 innings he tossed last year appeared to take a toll on him. In September, as Atlanta battled for a playoff berth, the ace’s numbers were atrocious, with batters hitting .291 against him over six starts. He’ll still be good, but the Braves better hope the young guns on their staff are up to the challenge of picking up some slack.

Jeremy Guthrie, BAL

The internet is abuzz with Baltimore’s recent offensive additions. Sure, nobody expects them to win the AL East, but they all expect the team to make some noise. Those who defend the weak Starting Pitching will argue that Guthrie made huge strikes. Yes, his numbers were good, but there’s reason to believe they were a mirage. It’s extremely difficult to maintain a 1.16 WHIP when you can’t miss bats. And Guthrie is clearly an example of somebody who can’t miss bats. He struck out just 5.1 batters per nine innings pitched, and that’s not strange for the right-hander, who had a 5.7 K/9 in 2008, and even worse 5.0 in ’09. If you struggle to rack up strikeouts, there better be some luck on your side, and Guthrie got it in 2010, with a BABIP at .254. If he continues to limit the walks (just 2.15/9 last season) he’ll be a guy you want on the mound. Just not the guy who carries your team.

Trevor Cahill, OAK

The knock on the 22-year-old is, like Guthrie, his inability to strike anybody out. He had just 118 K’s in 196.2 innings pitched last year. And while we do expect him to get better with age– especially as his strong change up further develops to match his masterful sinker– his luck will vary. Remember when I said Hudson had the fourth lowest BABIP in the league. Can you guess who was first? I’ll give you a hint, his name appears directly above the current paragraph. In fact, not only was Cahill’s BABIP of .236 the lowest among all pitchers last year, nobody has had one lower since Chris Young posted a BABIP of .226 way back in 2006! Yes, he’ll be an important fixture on a talented staff. But a sub-3.00 ERA is dreaming. Considering last year’s splits, Oakland fans should be pleased if it’s anything below 4.00.

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6 Bold MLB Predictions

The Docs Get a Little Crazy and Predict the Future

6 Bold Predictions for 2010.

NL East: John Smoltz Rejoins the Braves

After some Braves pitchers go down with injury, the team fills the void with future HOFer John Smoltz. While starting when he arrives in Atlanta, Smoltz finishes the season in the Braves pen, giving the Braves another veteran closer to rely on.

With Smoltz help, the Braves win the Wild Card and finally return to October. The team overcomes the Phillies for the NL Pennant, but eventually falls short in the World Series.

After returning to the playoffs, Smoltz, Chipper and Bobby Cox all call it a career. The three good friends make plans to meet up in Cooperstown five years later.

NL Central: Alcides Escobar Wins Rookie of the Year

Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Pedro Alvarez.

Despite being one of two players on this list with a guaranteed starting job, Escobar has been overshadowed by many other rookies.
But hype doesn’t always win out. Escobar builds on his strong MLB play last year to edge out Jason Heyward for NL Rookie of the Year.
When Rickie Weeks struggles (which would be the opposite of a bold prediction) Escobar is moved atop the Brewers order. Hitting over .300 while stealing 40 bases, Escobar is among the league leaders in runs with Braun and Fielder hitting behind him.

NL West: Matt Kemp wins MVP

Continuing his rapid ascent to stardom, Kemp ends the year as baseball’s first 40/40 player since Alfonso Soriano in 2006.
Reaching his full power potential, Kemp manages to reach the 40 homer mark for the first time. He also steals 42 bases (eight more than last year). With a 300+ batting average and well over 100 RBI, Kemp wins MVP.

Despite Kemp’s extraordinary year, the Dodgers miss out on the playoffs due to a poor performance from their starting rotation.

AL East: Rays trade Carl Crawford, Still Make Playoffs

Knowing that they have little chance to keep Carl Crawford following the 2010 season, the Rays make a deadline deal to send him away for more prospects.

Although the Rays are behind both the Red Sox and Yankees in the standings, they eventually rally into the Wild Card spot, led by Crawford’s replacement, Desmond Jennings.

Jennings, a prospect in the same mold as Crawford, excels in his first MLB season. Coupled with Jeremy Hellickson, the Rays begin another youth movement which leads them back to October.

AL Central: Francisco Liriano Competes for the Cy Young, But Loses to Jake Peavy

Remember when Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched. Well if his spring was any indication, we might finally get to see the 2006 version of Liriano again.
I see Liriano putting up a 2.90 ERA this year while striking out 200+ batters if he stays in the rotation all year.

Now think back to 2007, the last season that Jake Peavy made more than 30 starts. That year, he won the pitching Triple Crown while posting 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts.

I also see Peavy returning to his old form in 2010, posting numbers very similar to Liriano. In the end, the White Sox win the division, and a higher win total might give the Cy Young to Peavy.

AL West: The Mariners Record Doesn’t Improve Despite Off-Season Additions

Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins were brought in Seattle to make the Mariners competitors, but I still think this team is far behind the Angels and Rangers.

Last year, the Mariners got extremely lucky, winning 85 games despite posting a run differential of -52. The expected record for a team with that run differential is 75-87.

In 2009, Lee and Figgins had WARs of 6.6 and 6.1, respectively. Their combined WAR of 12.7 is less than 10 above the players that they are replacing (Adrian Beltre and a number of pitchers who made starts in 2010). That, coupled with Russell Branyan departing (and being replaced with the much worse Casey Kotchman), leaves the Mariners a team that should improve by 5-7 wins in 2010.

Assuming that the Mariners have neutral luck (which would have led to a 75-87 record in 2009), they will finish this season around .500, possibly below it. Even with a small amount of good luck, the Mariners will be hard pressed to reach the 85 wins that they had in 2009.

Brett Kettyle

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