We all know about the summer of 2010 in the NBA when a smorgasbord of NBA players will become free agents, namely LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, and Amar’e Stoudemire, but not a lot of people have mentioned the abundant 2011 MLB free agent crop.

Names like Joe Mauer, David Ortiz, Derrek Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Josh Beckett will all be free agents, but Mauer, Jeter, Rivera, and most likely Beckett are not going anywhere.

Mauer is already in contract talks with the Twins for a possible ten-year extension, and we do not think you will ever see Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera in another uniform. Derrek Lee could be on his way out in Chicago, and there are a host of other players that might leave, including Big Papi. If Ortiz struggles like last season there is no way the Bo-Sox pick up his $12.5 million option.

Here are the top ten 2011 MLB free agents, not named Joe Mauer, Derek Jeter, Josh Beckett, and Mariano Rivera because they are likely not going anywhere.

10. Brandon Webb SP Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Webb’s career is likely headed in a different direction after last season’s shoulder surgery. Once considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, Webb has not thrown off a mound in almost a full year, and is not in any rush to get back on the bump. If Webb was fully healthy he would be landing a $100 million contract, but instead he might struggle to command a huge payday.

9. Jorge De La Rosa SP Colorado Rockies
Jorge De La Rosa is about as underrated a player can get in all of professional sports. Starting pitchers are the lifeblood of any MLB team and after starting out 0-6 last season he ended at 16-9, with a 4.38 ERA, and 193 Ks in 185 IP. De La Rosa is the Rockies’ No. 2 starter after Ubaldo Jimenez, and both were the main reasons why COL got back to the playoffs last season. De La Rosa will likely command one of the highest contracts next off-season.

8. Javier Vazquez SP New York Yankees
After getting laughed out of the south side of Chicago, Javier Vazquez came back strong compiling a 15 Ws, with a 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 Ks, in just over 219 IP for the Braves last season. The 34-year-old Vazquez’s numbers will likely inflate a tad in the AL, but he will likely go over the 200 IP mark for the sixth straight season and record 200+ Ks for the fourth straight season. Vazquez might be long in the tooth for a big money free agent contract, but he will definitely get an eight-figure contract for multiple years and it could be from his current employer.

7. Carlos Pena 1B/DH Tampa Bay Rays
Sure Carlos Pena hit only .227 last year, but he also blasted 39 HR, drove in 100 RBI, and scored 91 runs in only 135 games. Pena also plays great defense and is only turning 32 this May, and he will likely receive a hefty pay check from someone in need of a big time left handed power hitter, which is pretty much every MLB team.

6. Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs
Derrek Lee had his best season since 2005 last year as he hit a robust .306, with 35 HR and 111 RBI, in 141 games. He turns 35 after this season, and if he has another monster season the Cubs will be lucky to re-sign him. Lee plays great defense, runs the bases well, and is an all around great ball player and he will receive another big contract this off-season.

5. Adam Dunn 1B Washington Nationals
Adam Dunn is a monster at 6’6” 275 lbs. but can flat out hit the ball out of the park. Last season was the first time since 2003 he failed to hit 40 HR, but he hit for a career high average (.267), and still got on base nearly 40% of the time. Dunn only signed a two-year deal with the Nats, who will try to sign him before, during, and after the season, but Dunn wants a lucrative long-term deal. Much like Carlos Pena, left-handed power bats are very rare and Dunn will command one of the higher contracts for a hitter this off-season.

4. Jayson Werth OF Philadelphia Phillies
After bouncing around from Toronto to Los Angeles, and now finding a home in Philly, Jason Werth has made himself some money the past two seasons. He has averaged 30 HR the last two years, including a career high 36 last season, while driving in a career high 99 RBI and scoring 98 runs. Werth also has 20 SB the last two seasons and although he does not hit for a high average, he had an OBP of .373 last season. Werth will definitely be in high demand next off-season and will likely out-price himself of the Phillies market.

3. Victor Martinez C/1B Boston Red Sox
It is said Victor Martinez can fall out of bed and hit .300 and drive in 100, and that is exactly what he did last season. It is likely Vic will remain a Red Sox, but there are plenty of teams that could use a veteran switch hitting catcher, with good receiving skills, and a big time bat. If Martinez is smart he does not sign an extension this season and milks as much money as he can out of the dozen or so teams that will want him.

2. Carl Crawford LF Tampa Bay Rays
Carl Crawford has been electrifying Tampa Bay fans since 2002 and it might be time to say goodbye. As usual, the Rays have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and OF Desmond Jennings is ready and waiting to take over LF when Crawford leaves. CC, not Sabathia, had a monster year last season hitting .305, with 60 SB, and 96 runs, but he will likely have a better year this season because he is a contract year. Look out AL East.

1. Cliff Lee SP Seattle Mariners
Cliff Lee is on his third team in two seasons after being traded in a three-way trade for Roy Halladay last off-season. The M’s made the trade thinking they now have the upper hand in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but if they did, he would have signed already. Lee will hit the market as a former Cy Young Award winner, and will be 32 years old in late August. He will likely command a lengthy lucrative deal and the Mariners will be lucky if they re-sign him.

Matt Anaya
Twitter.com/MatAnaya

Related posts:

1. Current Free Agents at SS
2. 2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: 3B
3. 2009/2010 Free Agent Tracker: 1B

A bad bullpen before Guzman's injury is now an awful one.

Angel Guzman was the Chicago Cubs’ relief ace in 2009. He posted a sparkling 2.95 ERA and had a 1.97 WPA (Win Probability Added, which tallies the wins or losses against average provided by a player, based upon the play-by-play outcomes of each of their plate appearances and weighted for the relative importance of the situations in which they occurred) in a career-high 61 innings of big-league work.

Only 13 percent of balls in play against Guzman were line drives, versus a league average of 18 percent. Of the rest, he induced 23 percent more ground balls than fly balls. The team needed stability and command from its bullpen, and last season, Guzman alone provided it.

Guzman’s talent, however, has a painful caveat: he simply cannot seem to stay healthy. That flaw demonstrated itself plainly last week, when an MRI of Guzman’s shoulder showed a severe tear of the lower front ligament there. Worse even than his season, the injury threatens Guzman’s career.

It also puts the Cubs in a tough spot. The team sorely needed another good season from Guzman in an expanded set-up role, and now finds itself scrambling for bullpen depth. With left-handed starting pitcher Ted Lilly out for at least the regular season’s first few weeks, at least two of Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija will be pressed into starting duty during April, and possibly even early May. Even thereafter, one of the trio will win the full-time starting job.

That leaves two—for the sake of argument, say Marshall and Samardzija—men to fill secondary relief positions. Carlos Marmol, deserving or not, is the teams’ anointed closer. John Grabow, although also undeserving of his pedigree, is the team;s left-handed set-up man. Finally, rookie Esmailin Caridad is the leader in the clubhouse for the right-handed set-up job.

There remain, then, only two spots in which the Cubs could comfortably carry pitchers. Mike Parisi will need to get a long look at one of those jobs, because the Cubs (who acquired him via the Rule 5 Draft) must return him to the St. Louis Cardinals if he does not make the Major League roster out of camp. Carlos Silva will get the first shot at the other role, simply because GM Jim Hendry finds eating the $25 million still owed Silva an unappealing idea.

Unfortunately for everyone involved, neither of those men are especially talented pitchers. Silva’s struggles over the last two seasons are well-documented, and Parisi looks like a fringe Major Leaguer at best. So both are likely headed out of town, and Silva’s contract will become a deadweight loss for Chicago. The Cubs will then need to head back to the drawing board, and decide all over again who deserves the final spots on their pitching staff.

This time, the emphasis should be on developing and extending younger, higher-upside players. Chicago acquired erstwhile Oakland reliever Jeff Gray during the off-season, but Gray has battled a strained groin this spring and may miss his shot to join the team out of camp. The team also has a stable of solid pitchers under the age of 26, including right-handers Andrew Cashner, Jeff Stevens, David Patton, Blake Parker, Justin Berg and Thomas Diamond; and southpaws John Gaub, Jeff Kennard and James Russell. All will get a chance to wow the Cubs’ coaches and executives during the balance of Spring Training.

The key to the Cubs’ pen, though, will be Lou Piniella’s willingness or unwillingness to be creative with his usage patterns. Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times and top-flight analyst Tom Tango have each independently found that relievers could likely withstand half again the workload most receive in the modern era. With that in mind, Piniella and pitching coach Larry Rothschild should look for ways to get more innings from fewer arms.

Marmol threw 74 innings last season, but if he proves that he can harness his awful control, the team should aim for something much closer to his 2008 total of 87 1/3 frames. Grabow is the bullpen equivalent of a workhorse, with 148 2/3 innings over the past two seasons, and should be a lock for about 75 again this season. The starting rotation ought to account for some 900 innings, bringing the team total to about 1,065. That leaves roughly 350 innings to be split among the five other pitchers on the staff.

Caridad and Samardzija have been starters all the way up the Minor-League chain, and Marshall has both started and relieved extensively during the past three seasons. If Marshall and Samardzija each start a pair of games, they can easily reach 75 innings apiece. Caridad, properly used, could account for many more. Any time a pitcher leaves with a lead after six innings, Piniella and Rothschild should bring in Caridad to throw the two bridge frames to get to Marmol in the ninth. Caridad is the perfect pitcher to push toward the first 100-inning relief season in recent memory.

That leaves just 100 innings to be accounted for. The team could carry twelve pitchers, splitting the remaining work between two fringe-level pitchers. Given the depth of their projected Minor League staff, however, they would be wiser to simply keep an active shuttle going between Triple-A Iowa and Chicago.

Gaub, Stevens, Berg and Russell could throw 25 innings each, with the team carrying only one at a time. That would give them an extra bat off the bench, and allow them to carry defense-first options (like Sam Fuld in the outfield and Andres Blanco on the infield) without losing significant amounts of offense or pinch-hitting options. If the team were to actually try it, that strategy could turn the negative of Guzman’s loss into a positive, and make the Cubs a legitimate contender for the National League Central crown in 2010.

Matt Trueblood

Related posts:

1. Modern Day Use of the Bullpen in Baseball
2. NL Central Predictions
3. Top 10 2011 MLB Free Agents

Is Jason Heyward the next great ball player?

Coming into 2009, Braves fans were excited about the potential possessed by young starting pitcher Tommy Hanson.

Coming off a dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League and a good showing spring training, people were anxious to see Hanson get his shot at the majors.

The hype surrounding Hanson typically only comes once every five or ten years.

But despite what Santa brought us last year, Braves fans get something better now. Jason Heyward.

At only 20, Jason Heyward is probably more well-known than some guys who have spent 10 years in the majors, and he has been the biggest story in Braves camp so far.

One day Chipper Jones says he looks like a linebacker. One day Bobby Cox compares him to Hank Aaron. Another day he is smashing cars with his homeruns. Just yesterday Jim Leyland compared him to Albert Pujols.

You can even go online and by t-shirts that say “The J-Hey Kid,” which of course is a reference to Willie Mays.

Born in New Jersey, Heyward played his high school ball in McDonough, Georgia. Back then, he played first base, and was named an AFLAC All-American.

Going into the 2007 draft, Heyward was projected to go somewhere in the top 10, so even though he had caught the eye of Braves scouts and grew up in their home state, they wouldn’t have a chance to get him.

But the teams in front of the Braves all passed on Heyward.

The Giants and Mariners took pitchers at the tenth and eleventh slots. The Marlins and Indians took corner infielders directly in front of the Braves.

Somehow, Jason Heyward had fallen to Atlanta. A top ten pick who played his high school ball in Georgia and was still available at 14, the Braves made the obvious choice to take Heyward.

At this point, Heyward is the third player from the 2007 draft to be named baseball’s top prospect, following David Price and Matt Wieters.

But Heyward could be better than both of them.

Beginning his rapid ascent to the majors later in 2007, Heyward played well in a handful of games at each of the Braves Rookie League squads.

But 2008 was when Heyward really put himself on the map as someone who could live up to his huge potential.

Playing mostly at Rome, with a small stint in Myrtle Beach, Heyward compiled a .316/.381/.473 line in 127 games.
At this point, he was named a top five prospect in all of baseball coming into 2009.

Playing the first half of the season in one of the minors most pitching friendly parks (in Myrtle Beach) Heyward dominated A+ level pitching at just 19 years of age, putting up a fantastic line of .296/.369/.519.

Somehow, those numbers improved when Heyward got the mid-season call-up to AA Mississippi. In just 47 games Heyward hit .352/.446/.611 and prompted the Braves to call him up to AAA, even if it was only for a week at the end of the season.

Heading into 2010, with the label of top prospect and knowledge that he is the most recent Minor League Player of the Year, Heyward, and everyone else, expected him to compete for the Braves starting right field job.

And so far in Spring Training, he has done nothing to disappoint. With his mammoth homeruns and easy demeanor, Heyward is already a fan favorite in Atlanta.
In his first batting practice, Heyward wowed by breaking the sunroof on a car, and denting a Coca-Cola truck.

So far in Spring Training games, Heyward has a .417/.611/.833 line. Yes, his on-base percentage is over .500 now, but that doesn’t really surprise anyone does it?
Monday, he hit a 450 foot blast off of Max Scherzer for his first homer of the year. It hit the roof of a building some 30 feet behind the right field wall of the Lakeland stadium which houses the Tigers.

Oh, and he can run too. He already has a stolen base this spring and has 26 in 238 minor league games. The speed also shows in the outfield, where he has already made some great plays for the Braves.

With every day that passes, Heyward’s five tooled talent causes his legend to grow through amazing plays, monster homeruns and hall of fame comparisons.

But in reality, we haven’t seen anything yet. Just wait until he makes it to the big leagues.

Brett Kettyle

Related posts:

1. Five MLB Ready Rookies

Bryce Harper is the real deal.

We all know and love 17-year-old junior college freshman Bryce Harper, but he cannot be this good. Can he?

Last weekend (March 6) Harper went 7/8 with five runs, two HR, two RBI, and is now hitting .408, getting on base at a .506 clip, with six HR, and 20 RBI on the season.

Below is a recent clip of Harper taking BP and a few ABs from late February.

Harper BP

Harper AB vs. Chipola’s LHP Jake Eliopoulos

Harper’s 2nd AB vs. Chipola’s LHP Jake Eliopoulos

Harper has tremendous bat speed but is still not using all of his strength. He still gets fooled and sometimes looks awkward when he misses, but he is only 17 LOL.

Matt Anaya
Twitter.com/MatAnaya

Related posts:

1. Bryce Harper Batting Practice
2. Bryce Harper: ‘The Lebron James of Baseball’
3. News and Notes: Rounding the Bases

Jason Heyward is one of five rookies that are ready.

We all know about what Jason Heyward is going to do to opposing pitchers this season, but there are a few other rookies you should know about. These rookies will likely make the opening day roster and make an immediate impact, and perhaps they will make an impact for your fantasy team.

All will make an impact for the big league team in the immediate future, and the rookies not on the list will either start the season in the minors or will not be up until September, making them irrelevant to the start of the season.

No. 5 Wade Davis TB SP
Wade Davis was drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2004 MLB draft by the TB Rays. Standing 6’5” 220 lbs., Davis is a burly right hander and is currently the third best Rays prospect behind OF Desmond Jennings and SP Jeremy Hellickson, but both Jennings and Hellickson will start this season in the minors. Davis made his debut last September and was impressive in six big league starts. He will be 25 in September, and the Rays have never rushed him and they feel he is finally ready to contribute in the big leagues. Last season Davis threw a career high 195 innings combined for AAA and the Rays, and it looks like TB will be depending on him to go over the 200 IP mark for the first time in his career.

No. 4 Alcides Escobar MIL SS
23-year-old Venezuelan and Milwaukee Brewers SS Alcides Escobar can do a lot of things on the diamond, but was called up last season for his glove. This year the Brewers made room for Escobar in the starting lineup after trading fan favorite J.J. Hardy and the Brewers top prospect since looks ready to go. In 38 games last season Escobar hit .304 and in nearly 50 games he is a .310 hitter. Although not known for his plate patience, it looks like Escobar will have no trouble getting on base and stealing over 30 bases in his rookie season. Clearly, Escobar does not belong in the minors and you can add another stud to an already plentiful Brewers offense.

No. 3 Neftali Feliz P TEX
21-year-old flame throwing Neftali Feliz appeared in 20 games last season (0 starts) for the Rangers and was nearly unhittable. In 31 IP, Feliz sported at 1.74 ERA, with a K/W ratio of over 4/1, and a miniscule .68 WHIP. The Rangers want to make Feliz a starter but reportedly will keep him in the bullpen this season, and it looks like it is the right decision. According to Baseball America, Feliz is the top prospect in the Rangers organization, and there are two others in the top 17.

No. 2 Brian Matusz SP BAL
23-year-old Brian Matusz is currently fourth in the Orioles rotation, but it might not be long before he and fellow top prospect Chris Tillman are atop the O’s rotation. Matusz (pronounced Mattis) was the fourth overall pick in 2008, a collegiate All American at the University of San Diego, and is Baltimore’s top prospect according to Baseball America. BA says his best tool is his changeup, and in eight starts for the O’s last season, Matusz went 5-2, with a 4.63 ERA, and over a 2/1 K/W ratio. He will be given every opportunity to make the starting rotation this season, as he clearly does not belong in the minors. In only 113 IP (19 starts) in the minors, Matusz recorded a 1.91 ERA, had less hits than IP, a K/W ratio at nearly 4/1, and a ridiculous 1.05 WHIP. All indications point to Matusz being a big time MLB prospect.

No. 1 Jason Heyward RF ATL
Jason Heyward is the number one overall prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America, even higher than last season’s No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg and his $15 million contract. Heyward is a big time power-hitting prospect, probably the best since Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun, and will only be 20 years old on opening day. Heyward is 6’4” 220 lbs. with all sorts of talent and can still move for a big man, as his 15 SB in 2008 suggest. In 238 minor league games Heyward has produced a .318 average, .391 OBP, 29 HR, 125 RBI, and will be starting for the Atlanta Braves on opening day.

Matt Anaya
Twitter.com/MatAnaya

Related posts:

1. Who is Jason Heyward?
2. Players Ready to Bounce Back
3. NL Central Predictions

There is a well-worn axiom in fantasy baseball circles that says that while it is impossible to win one’s league on draft day, it is possible to lose it. That may be true, but draft day is a great time to get a head start on one’s competition.

That can’t be done in the first three to five rounds, however. A player may get the league’s best combination of talents out of the top five rounds, but the simple truth is that everyone can collect superstars at the top of the board. There are, most years, more than 50 top-50 players to be had, and so everyone’s team looks loaded until the elite talent begins to dwindle.

That is when the so-called fantasy experts make their money. That is when league champions surge to the forefront, and also-rans begin also-running. That is when sleepers begin to emerge.

The following ten players are good bets to provide solid value above and beyond their average draft positions (or projected rotisserie values) in 2010, and deserve fantasy players’ attention as the top sleepers of the upcoming season.

1. Ricky Nolasco

Nolasco logged a hideous 5.06 ERA in 2009, despite the fifth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the league. His fielder-independent ERA (3.35) was actually a marked improvement from his 2008 figure. A mid-season demotion to Triple-A is all that kept him from logging 200 or more innings for the second straight season, and he would easily have eclipsed 200 strikeouts had he done so.

In fact, had Nolasco been anything short of horrifically unlucky in 2009, he would have been a top-shelf pitcher of Justin Verlander’s ilk. Of the 77 pitchers who threw at least 162 innings last year, Nolasco’s 61.0 percent figure in left on base percentage (basically, the number of runners a pitcher puts on base, minus the number who score, divided by the original number of runners on base) was the absolute lowest. As this article shows, that problem sometimes repeats itself across seasons, but more often than not, such situational splits even out fairly quickly.

Nolasco’s Clutch index (which measures how well or poorly a player does in high-leverage situations, relative to their norm) was also the lowest among qualifying 2009 hurlers, according to FanGraphs. That is nearly always an unreliable predictor of future performance, and a little regression could go a long way toward smoothing out Nolasco’s ERA problems.

Nolasco only narrowly qualifies as a sleeper; his ADP is inside the first ten rounds in most leagues. It also hurts that he has always tended to give up home runs, a trend that continued unabated through last year. He has Zack Greinke’s upside, though, and at 27, he still has one more season in which to discover and express it fully.

2. Carlos Quentin

Quentin, slowed by plantar fasciitis in 2009, posted a miserable .236 batting average. Much of that came courtesy of Quentin’s .223 batting average on balls in play (BAbip), however. Aside from being an impossibly low number for a skilled hitter like Quentin to duplicate, .223 was some 72 points below Quentin’s expected BAbip, which is calculated using a player’s batted-ball tendencies and speed score, among other factors. By the reckoning of xBAbip, no player in baseball received worse treatment from Lady Luck last season.

Of course, some of the problem was a direct result of the injuries, which hobbled Quentin even after his premature return to the Chicago White Sox’s futile playoff push. With those in the past, Quentin seems ready to rake again. Thirty home runs is a reachable benchmark for the slugger, who popped 21 of them in fewer than 400 plate appearances last year and had 36 in somewhat less than a full season in 2008.

3. Geovany Soto

Soto, too, struggled to reach base on balls in play in 2009. The general consensus, however, is that his conditioning (or lack thereof) had more to do with that than did his strained oblique. Indeed, most clear-headed observers might link the extra weight he carried in 2009 to the overworking or hyperextension of muscles along his side.

Skills erosion certainly was not the issue. Soto walked more and struck out less, as a percentage of his total plate appearances, than he had during his Rookie of the Year season in 2008. He maintained roughly the same batted-ball profile, as well, all of which suggests he simply needed to slim down. New Cubs hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo seems eager to work with Soto, and so far in camp, the feeling has been mutual.

At any rate, Soto dropped 40 pounds in the off-season and seems both healthier and more focused in 2010. His rookie output of 23 home runs and 86 runs batted in were good enough for him to be among the top five catchers in fantasy baseball headed into 2009, and that is the sort of baseline from which his projections should be made this season.

4. Chad Qualls

Qualls missed the last six weeks of last season, but all indications are that he will be fully ready for the start of the season, and as long as that is true, he is a valuable and under-rated closer option. His WHIP isn’t elite, but is much better than Carlos Marmol’s or Brian Fuentes’s figure to be. Both of those men go ahead of Qualls as often as they go after him in recent mock drafts, and that is folly, especially with Fernando Rodney on board to steal save chances from Fuentes.

More importantly, Qualls is just good value. For players who grab an ace starter early, Qualls can add 30-plus saves just in front of pick 200, and provides enough strikeouts to carry the weight without sacrificing WHIP by walking people. There are always a million ways to come away with the best team on draft day, but this season, Qualls is a part of many winning strategies.

5. Edwin Jackson

Now a teammate of Qualls with the Diamondbacks, Edwin Jackson brings the same skills that moved him gracefully through American League lineups to a 3.62 ERA, 13 wins and 161 strikeouts last season to the National League’s inferior hitting. He now also gets to face the pitcher.

It is a wonder, then, that so many pundits are adamant in their belief that Jackson is headed for a serious and unpleasant course correction. Jackson, 26, did post a fielder-independent ERA of 4.42 last season. That was fueled largely by a falling ground ball rate and Jackson’s long-time vulnerability to the home run.

It became fairly apparent that Jackson, who had thrown 100 or more pitches only 16 times in 32 appearances with the Rays in 2008, wore down as the season wore on. He would toss 100 or times in 21 different starts for notorious task-master Jim Leyland, and crested that mark seven straight times beginning July 4 at Minnesota. In fact, from that date onward, Jackson threw 100 or more pitches in 13 of his remaining 17 starts.

That abuse resulted in a 5.07 ERA during the second half, after a first half that saw him go 7-4 with a 2.52 mark. If Arizona is wise enough to treat his arm with more caution in 2010, Jackson will reward them with a very strong showing, and will be a surprise top-tier number two starter in fantasy leagues.

6. Martin Prado

Almost any player who is eligible at both second and third base has value, provided they get playing time. Not only will Prado finally get full-time at-bats at second, with a chance to expand his role even further if third baseman Chipper Jones continues to battle aging and injury, but he will also bat second for Bobby Cox’s Atlanta Braves this season. That means 90 runs scored, in addition to Prado’s almost assured .300 average.

Batting average is an underappreciated category in fantasy; a player who can provide it in full-time work is hard to find late in drafts, yet Prado continues to fall into the twentieth round and beyond. Prado is eligible at first, second and third base in most leagues, and could well smack 10-12 home runs if whoever bats behind him can scare pitchers into throwing him fastballs. At either the corner or middle infield spot, Prado is a steal at his current market value.

7. J.J. Hardy

Hardy will benefit from the change of scenery, after constant rumors about his imminent replacement at the hands of phenomenal prospect Alcides Escobar marred Hardy’s final season in Milwaukee. A November trade to the Minnesota Twins gives Hardy a chance to prove himself once again, and at just 27 years of age, it is not at all beyond the realm of possibility.

A .260 BAbip held down his batting average, while the patient approach thrust upon him by his coaches—Hardy swung at fewer pitches inside the strike zone than all but four other hitters in the league, who accumulated 220 or more plate appearances—failed to translate into significantly more walks. Yet, Hardy is not so far removed from the two-year span of 2007-08, wherein he hit a combined 50 home runs and batted a stout .280.

Those numbers might be a bit ambitious, but his realistic ceiling still reaches 20 homers and a .270 average. That kind of production makes Hardy a very good piece of a winning draft strategy, too: because there is an abundance of speed to be had in the outfield this season, players who solidify the steals category in the middle rounds can scoop up Hardy as a hefty-hitting middle infielder with their last pick of the draft.

8. David Freese

At 26, going on 27, David Freese will finally get a long overdue chance to play every day in the Major Leagues this season. The St. Louis Cardinals have slotted him for that role, after watching Freese bring his career slash statistics in the Minor Leagues to .308/.384/.532 in the 64 games to which injuries limited him last year.

Inexplicably, analysts everywhere are unwilling to trust what the numbers tell them about the 2006 ninth-round draft pick of the San Diego Padres. He seems to have the confidence of the Cardinals brass, however, and that may be all he needs to bust out with a .280, 20-homer, 85-RBI campaign, batting fifth and scoring a modicum of runs. All of that can be had for the price of one dollar at auction or the use of a reserve round draft pick.

9. Derek Lowe

It’s easy to see why Lowe could bounce back in 2010: he hardly needs to bounce back, at all. Despite a 4.67 ERA, Lowe had a 4.06 FIP last year. No pitcher who threw more than 162 innings had a worse Defensive Efficiency Rate (DER, the percentage of balls in play a team defense turns into outs) than the .655 mark the Braves posted behind Lowe. That came in spite of the team posting an above-average DER overall, and in spite of Lowe’s marked ground-ball tendencies; the Braves have a slick-fielding group across their infield, generally.

The .330 BAbip posted by batters against Lowe last season was the highest since 2004. Lowe also walked more batters than he had since 2004, something he must correct in order to reel in his sky-high 1.52 WHIP from last season.

In the final calculus, though, Lowe has a relatively short way to go to regain some fantasy relevance, and as he will be available well into the reserve rounds of even the deepest mixed leagues, he is worth a look. Note that, before his 36-year-old arm wore down in his final nine starts, Lowe had a 4.08 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 150 innings.

10. Drew Stubbs

Stubbs wants to bat leadoff and play center field every day for the Cincinnati Reds, and if he has anything better than the worst-case scenario of a spring, he will get his wish. At 25, Stubbs is just three and a half years removed from being drafted in the first round by the Reds, and now looks ready to shine.

The power he flashed last season—eight home runs and a .439 slugging average in just fewer than 200 plate appearances—is not real. If he gets over twice as much playing time in 2010, and that’s a safe bet, he may hit 12 homers. That is the absolute ceiling for this season, and if Stubbs is smart, he won’t push to develop more power too quickly.

That is because Stubbs’s greatest asset, both on the field and in fantasy play, is his speed. Bill James has bullishly projected him for 51 thefts this year, but 40 is not out of the question. Best of all, Stubbs will provide those 40 steals without a .240 batting average or 20 failed stolen base attempts, a la 2009’s Reds center fielder Willy Taveras. He may only hit .265, but even that has value. If he hits .275 instead, which is possible, he is every bit as valuable as Houston Astros outfielder Michael Bourn, and can be gotten about 150 picks later.

Matt Trueblood

Related posts:

1. The Top 10 Fantasy Catchers of 2009
2. 10 MLB Milestones Within Reach in 2010
3. Fantasy Focus: Advancing to Your League Championship Game

Carl Crawford is one of many players within reach of historical milestones.

The last three seasons have been loaded with historic moments in Major League Baseball. During that span, five players have clubbed their 500th home runs: Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield. Ken Griffey, Jr., also joined the 600 club in 2008, becoming only the sixth man to reach that plateau.

Meanwhile, pitchers Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson each reached the 300-win milestone, thereby establishing their own inclusion in an increasingly exclusive Hall of Fame group. Craig Biggio collected his 3,000th hit in 2007, as well.

In 2010, however, baseball fans may have to settle for lesser moments. Rodriguez is only 17 homers shy of 600, and stands an excellent chance of reaching and exceeding that total. Beyond that, however, the definitive milestone numbers are simply not within reach for any of those chasing them. That does not mean that there exists any dearth of quirky, meaningful numbers to be reached, however. Here, then, are ten players (aside from Rodriguez) who have a chance to reach big-time milestones in 2010:

• Francisco Rodriguez: “K-Rod” doesn’t quite have Trevor Hoffman in his immediate sights just yet, but he will almost certainly reach 250 saves this season, and at 28, he will become the youngest (by a mile) ever to have done so. He was also the youngest to reach 100, 150 and 200 saves, and logged 35 saves last season despite a catastrophic decline in his peripheral numbers.

• Albert Pujols: Pujols, who needs 34 home runs to reach 400 for his career, would not be the youngest to that number; that honor is safe with Griffey. Nor would he be the fastest man to the mark in terms of at-bats; that distinction belongs to Mark McGwire. The mark would simply be another step along Pujols’ rapid, clear path to Cooperstown. Thirty-four home runs is never guaranteed, but Pujols has hit at least that many in all but one of his nine seasons.

• Omar Vizquel: From the “if you play long enough” file, Vizquel will almost certainly become the 25th man in baseball history to reach 10,000 career at-bats. Griffey will follow him quickly to that threshold, but needs nearly 300 at-bats to get the job done, while Vizquel needs fewer than 90.

• Ivan Rodriguez: Pudge needs 112 games played to reach 2,500 for his illustrious career. Among players who primarily catch, he would be the first to reach that level. Carlton Fisk, the super-durable Hall of Fame backstop, logged 2,499 career games. Rodriguez also needs only two round-trippers as a catcher to reach 300 in that respect; he crossed that pure threshold last season, but has seven career bombs as a non-catcher.

• Trevor Hoffman: Hoffman should easily make the 15 appearances he needs to become the 14th man ever to pitch in 1,000 games. If he stays relatively healthy, he should crack the all-time top-ten list. Hoffman will also almost certainly become the first-ever closer to notch 600 saves, as he needs only nine.

• Jamie Moyer: If the Philadelphia Phillies give Moyer enough opportunity, he will allow the 14 home runs he needs to tie Hall of Famer Robin Roberts for the most allowed by any pitcher in Major League history. He also has a better-than-even shot at reaching 200 career losses, making for a second bittersweet milestone. Incidentally, Moyer is also the closest active player to 300 wins, but it seems unlikely that his 46-year-old arm still contains the 42 wins he needs to attain that milestone.

• CC Sabathia: With relatively few pitchers closing in on the upper echelon of win totals, Sabathia headlines a long list of pitchers who are nearing 150 wins. Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe and Roy Oswalt are all even closer, but then, Sabathia’s tender age (28) makes him the story. Fourteen wins would make the moment for the New York Yankees ace.

• Carl Crawford: The current active triples leaders, Detroit Tigers leftfielder Johnny Damon and Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins, are tied for 179th on the all-time list. Crawford, however, may have a better chance than either to become the first active player to reach 100 triples. At present, he is eight three-baggers short, with Damon and Rollins three such hits ahead of him at 95 apiece. Crawford also needs 38 stolen bases to reach 400 for his career, while White Sox outfielder Juan Pierre needs 41 to reach 500. While speed is on the table, it bears mentioning that Griffey is only 15 swipes shy of the even 200 his father stole during his big-league career. The younger Griffey, however, has only 17 steals since the calendar turned to 2000, and has attempted only eight in the last four years.

• Bobby Abreu: One of the game’s underrated superstars, Abreu can begin building what will someday be a strikingly strong Hall of Fame resume with the handful of small but impressive milestones within his reach in 2010. He needs only 17 doubles to reach 500 for his career, and is two stolen bases shy of 350. He will certainly reach 1,300 career RBI, given good health, and will look to log his eighth consecutive season with 100 or more RBI, and ninth in the last ten. Interestingly, he has never driven in more than 107 runs during that stretch. Abreu, 35, will also look to work on his current career batting average of .2993, a number tantalizingly close to the .2995 he needs to go down as a .300 career hitter.

• Jim Thome: Though he likely won’t reach either in 2010, Thome is within shouting distance of two big-time milestones. First, he is but 36 home runs short of 600. If he can stay healthy and is treated well by the brand-new Target Field, which he now calls home as a member of the Minnesota Twins, he has an outside shot. He had better make plans to play another season, however, if he hopes to claim Reggie Jackson’s most sacred distinction: all-time Major League strikeout leader. Thome passed Sammy Sosa to cruise into second place last season, with 2,313, but now has 284 punch-outs to go to reach Mr. October. Mike Cameron, no threat to the record, will nonetheless make whiff waves this season when he and Griffey assault the category’s all-time top-ten list.

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1. Top Fantasy Sleepers for 2010
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Aroldis Chapman makes it look easy

Aroldis Chapman was reportedly consistently hitting 97 MPH, although he plunked a hitter on the knee with a 95 MPH fastball. Here is a look at Chapman’s Spring Training debut and do not be afraid to let us know what you think.

Our thanks to CTrent.

Matt Anaya

Follow us at Twitter.com/DugoutDoctors

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Jay Bruce is a ballaholic.

On Jay Bruce’s Yardbarker page he posted a video of his appearance with the Harlem Globetrotters. It was taken over a month ago, so Reds fans can calm down, their future face of the franchise was not playing hooky.

Bruce had a rough year last season, battling injuries and he will be looking to establish himself as one of the best power hitters in the National League, and an All Star appearance is not out of the question.

BTW, I drafted a team and smoked two HR with Bruce in MLB The Show. Both were crushed off Chris Carpenter and one was a bomb, while the other was an accidental two-strike missile.

Matt Anaya

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Dock Ellis was an All Star, a champion, and threw a drug induced no-no.

Once upon a time there was a pitcher by the name of Dock Ellis. He pitched for a half dozen teams including winning 19 games for the World Champion Pittsburgh Pirates in 1971. Ellis also started for the National League in the All Star game that season, but will always be remembered for one thing.

Dock … take it away.

Thanks to @GillianJacobs for finding this one. Love her!

Ellis had an eventful playing career. He was the pitcher that gave up Reggie Jackson’s famous All Star blast that is still going. He also beaned Mr. October in obvious retaliation, was maced by a Cincinnati security guard, and beaned nearly every single Cincinnati Red in a 1974 game. Ellis sadly died in late 2008.

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@MatAnaya
@DugoutDoctors

Related posts:

1. News and Notes: Rounding the Bases